Fantasy Football Running Backs and Tight Ends Who will Regress in 2025 | Josh Jacobs, Mark Andrews, James Cook, Jonnu Smith and George Kittle

On Thursday, I put together a story on fantasy football quarterbacks and wide receivers who I expected to regress from 2024 to 2025.

I'm back with a similar story, just looking at running backs and tight ends instead. I'll be using ESPN's scoring leaders page, and PPR settings when discussing things today. 

Let's get right to it!

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Running Backs

There's several running backs I could have used, but I want to talk about Josh Jacobs and James Cook.

Jacobs was the No. 6 fantasy running back in total points this season. He did most of his work on the ground, rushing for 1,329 yards and 15 touchdowns, but was pretty good as a pass catcher with an additional 342 yards and a score on 36 receptions.

Jacobs should have no problem being the No. 1 back in Green Bay again, but I'd be pretty surprised if the Packers don't try to get another back ramped up - in case the team can't afford Jacobs moving forward.

MarShawn Lloyd was supposed to be that guy this season, but dealt with a number of injuries and ailments, and he only recorded stats in one game.

I think there's a good chance Lloyd carves out a decent role as a backup to Jacobs, and if Lloyd doesn't, someone else will. Green Bay's offense always functions best with a lead guy, but a good backup RB as well.

I think it will be tough for Jacobs to match his 1,300+ rushing yards and 1,600+ total yards. While he was comfortably in sixth place among fantasy backs, a couple less touchdowns could knock Jacobs down a couple pegs too.

I still think he'll be a top-10 fantasy back for 2025, but expecting a repeat of his 2024 fantasy performance isn't a wise thing to me.

Cook had a weird fantasy season, but ended up taking eighth among fantasy backs.

He rushed for just 1,009 yards, but scored 16 times on the ground to be a top-end option. Cook added 258 yards and two more touchdowns on 32 receptions to provide some more fantasy value.

Cook recently came out and requested a new contract that would pay him $15 million a season. Teams rarely pay backs that much, and I'm not sure Cook is really worth that.

In Buffalo, he has some fantasy value sapped up by Josh Allen's rushing ability. Even if Cook is back in Buffalo, I don't think he'll score 18 total touchdowns next season.

He might be able to make up for a few less touchdowns with more total yardage, but Cook just seems like a perfect regression player in 2024. 

Take his first two seasons as examples. In 17 games in 2023, Cook had 1,122 rushing yards, but just two touchdowns. He also scored twice on the ground as a rookie. Cook had 445 receiving yards and four scores in 2023, and 180 yards and a score in 2022. 

This season looks like an outlier to me, and I think he's going to be overdrafted (and maybe overpaid) for a touchdown-prevalent season. I'm going to be very wary of Cook as a fantasy asset in 2025, and you should be a bit too.

Tight Ends

Mark Andrews, Jonnu Smith and George Kittle are on my list of tight ends who could regress in 2025.

Let's start with Andrews, who started extremely slow this past season. He ended up as TE6 in PPR leagues, but scoring 11 touchdowns really boosted his fantasy numbers. Andrews ended the season with just 673 yards on 55 catches and 69 targets. 

If you even take away three touchdowns, Andrews would have dropped two more spots. And I think it's pretty likely that he finishes with less than eight scores next season.

Baltimore is likely to revamp its wide receiver room around Zay Flowers, so there should be more competition for targets in the passing game. I've been purposefully writing “likely” as well, because Baltimore No. 2 TE Isaiah Likely could also take on a larger role as the Ravens look more toward the future.

At a weak fantasy position, Andrews is still going to be looked to as a starting TE for 2025, but I think he's going to struggle to remain a top-10 option. Add that to the fact that he'll likely be one of the first tight ends off fantasy draft boards and I'm not a huge fan of even taking Andrews.

Maybe he will surprise me, but he'll turn 30 during the 2025 season, and I think will continue trending downward.

Smith is another pretty easy regression choice for me.

Smith finished with 88 catches, 884 yards and eight touchdowns in 2024. He was TE4 in PPR leagues.

The Dolphins' season was altered when Tua Tagovailoa went down with an injury, which is about the time that Smith took off as a fantasy performer.

Tyreek Hill was a bit banged up this season, which likely put more on Smith's plate. Hill probably won't play in Miami in 2025, and I'd expect the Dolphins to revamp their pass catchers with the speedy receiver out. That should lower the fantasy outlook for Smith some.

No. 2 wide receiver Jaylen Waddle played in 15 games this season, and underperformed if we're being honest. He's in store for a better season in 2025, whether that be functioning as the team's No. 1 option, or in the same No. 2 slot with a new leader ahead of him. 

Miami has needed a third receiver to step up over the years, and it turned out to be a tight end that filled that role in 2024. I think the team drafts one, signs one or gets one back in a trade for Hill, and I think it's going to hurt Smith's fantasy outlook in 2025.

Smith might be a decent fantasy value depending on where he falls in drafts on average, but there's a decent chance he won't even be able to live up to lower standards depending on how the Dolphins' offense looks.

Kittle is my last tight end I see regressing in 2025.

He was PPR TE3 in 2024 and averaged the most PPR points per week. Kittle finished with 1,106 yards and eight touchdowns across 78 receptions.

Kittle took advantage of several receivers (Brandon Aiyuk, Jauan Jennings, Deebo Samuel Sr.) missing games this season. Samuel might not be around in 2025, but I'd be surprised if he isn't replaced with another good wideout option. Having three good receivers on one team is tough for a tight end, even a great one like Kittle. 

This was the most receptions Kittle has had in a season since 2019, and I think he regresses in that stat significantly in 2025. I could also see his yards and touchdowns falling, which could drop him down a couple pegs on the fantasy TE leaderboard.

I still think Kittle will be one of the better fantasy tight ends in 2025, but I think he's also going to cost a very early draft pick, and that's where I am most worried.

Even a little regression is going to make Kittle probably a pick who cannot live up to his draft slot and hype. It's risky to spend an early pick on a tight end, and unless this offseason goes much differently than I'm expecting in San Fran, I think Kittle is going to regress a bit and fail to live up to preseason hype.