Analyzing Fantasy Baseball ADP Marks in Late February: Catcher, Third Base, Shortstop and More

The FantasySP Average Draft Position (ADP) page is a fantastic tool to use to see how other fantasy baseball leagues and owners are valuing players.

With that in mind, I wanted to comb through the page and take note of some interesting numbers.

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Catchers

The catcher position looks about how you’d expect it to, but there is one thing that stands out to me.

Adley Rutschman, Will Smith, William Contreras and J.T. Realmuto are widely viewed as the top-four fantasy catchers. Our ADP data not only shows Tyler Stephenson breaking into the top four, but going ahead of Contreras and Realmuto.

Stephenson is a fine player, but his numbers pale in comparison to some of the ones that Contreras and Realmuto put up. The only stat that Stephenson was better in was games played, and that was by just one spot game over Contreras and seven more than Realmuto. Contreras had the most plate appearances, hits and RBIs, along with the best average and on-base percentage. Realmuto was the top catcher among the three in homers and stolen bases.

Sometimes early in the draft season, some results can shift the numbers. I think that’s the case here and believe in due time, Contreras and Realmuto will see their ADPs rise ahead of Stephenson. 

Third Base

The names atop the third base position all are the right ones, but the actual ADPs seem a bit off to me.

Jose Ramirez, Austin Riley and Rafael Devers are the top three options in many people’s books. Ramirez has an ADP of 9.7, while Devers is at 21.78 and Riley at 32.74.

I think Ramirez should be the first one selected, but the first-round ADP mark is a bit surprising. What’s more surprising is seeing Riley with a fourth-round mark.

While Ramirez had the most stolen bases among these three players, along with the top average and on-base percentage, Riley was tops in plate appearances, hits and home runs. Devers led the trio in RBIs, with Ramirez finishing with 20 less RBIs. 

Those few numbers mean that the gap between Ramirez, Riley and Devers shouldn’t be nearly as wide. Maybe as the season approaches and more draft data rolls in, things will even out, but right now, this seems a touch off. I like all three guys being drafted in the second round and early third at the very latest.

Shortstop

The names atop the shortstop position are all spot on, in my opinion, but the ADP for Bobby Witt Jr. is confusing to me.

His average was .254 in his rookie season before jumping to .276 last year. So maybe fantasy owners are skeptical of that? His home run, runs scored and RBI numbers also jumped a bit though, so it isn’t like only one part of his game changed.

If anything, I’m thinking that Witt will improve his numbers again this season. I’ve seen Witt going as early as second in some drafts, but then other drafts where he drops into double digits. His ADP right now is 16.17, and that seems way too high. You could make arguments of several players to go at pick two, but to fall past pick five already seems too far for me.

I expect his ADP to improve as time passes, but it’s definitely something to keep in mind if you are drafting early and like another player with your first-round pick.

Relief Pitcher

I don’t have a problem with any of the ADPs for relief pitchers, mostly because I think an argument can be made that any closer could be in store for a big season, but I do want to take note of the ADPs of the relievers.

I’ve seen the top options (Devin Williams, Josh Hader, Emmanuel Clase, Edwin Diaz, Camilo Doval) going as early as pick 50, but Williams is the top option so far at 65.78.

That tells me that a lot of fantasy owners aren’t valuing closers too highly and believing they can land good options later in drafts. That’s the line of thinking I usually take in my drafts, as there’s a lot of great hitters and starting pitchers that are going in rounds 5-7 that I’d rather have than a closer. It really depends on how your league rewards closers, but the RP ADPs are definitely worth monitoring as your drafts start up.

Starting Pitcher

Again, I’m fine with the names atop the ADP list at starting pitcher, but the actual ADPs are very surprising to me. While relief pitchers are being passed over, starting pitchers are going far earlier than I expected.

Gerrit Cole and Spencer Strider both have first-round ADPs. In most rankings, they are second-round picks. Those two can definitely be top-10 scoring fantasy assets, but I personally find it hard to pass on some of the hitters available for a player who pitches every five days.

Kevin Gausman, Corbin Burnes and Zack Wheeler all have second-round ADPs, while Luis Castillo, Zac Gallen and Pablo Lopez are all going in the third round. 

Again, these are the top fantasy pitchers available, but they are going too early for my liking. I like these pitchers at least a round later than their ADPs, but if the ADPs remain steady as the season approaches, my thought process may need to shift.