Answering Fantasy Baseball Draft Questions | Nick Lodolo vs. James Paxton, Zack Wheeler vs. Luis Castillo, Evan Carter vs. Cody Bellinger

The fantasy baseball season is nearly here, but there’s a few of you that still have to conduct your league’s draft.

Today, I decided to scroll through the FantasySP Who Should I Draft tool and discuss three trending decisions that caught my eye and maybe answer some questions you might have along the way.

I’ll stick to players outside the first round of drafts, as I’ve covered my favorite picks already this spring.

Get ready for draft season! Check out our Mock Draft Simulator, Average Draft Position list and Draft Genius!

Nick Lodolo vs. James Paxton

The first matchup is a battle between starting pitchers. 

Lodolo made just seven starts in 2023, posting a rough 6.29 earned run average and 2-1 record across 34 1/3 innings. He struck out 47 batters along the way.

Lodolo is still working his way back from injury, and is expected to be out for the first couple weeks of the season. Once he’s back in action, he should slot into the team’s rotation.

Paxton made 19 starts for the Boston Red Sox in 2023, going 7-5 with a 4.50 ERA. He struck out 101 batters over 96 innings. 

Paxton doesn’t look like he’s going to slot into the Los Angeles Dodgers’ rotation, at least to start the season. 

Verdict: Neither of these pitchers should be viewed as a huge fantasy asset for the upcoming season. Both have durability issues and are on the back end of their team’s rotations, so struggles could lead to them being moved to the bullpen or sent down. I would take a chance on Lodolo between the two guys, but would prefer that to be closer to Paxton’s current Average Draft Position.

Zack Wheeler vs. Luis Castillo

Wheeler and Castillo are both going pretty early in drafts, between the second and third rounds in most cases.

Wheeler is the more seasoned MLB pitcher, but they have very similar career averages, with Wheeler at 3.45 and Castillo at 3.54.

Castillo went 14-9 with a 3.34 ERA across 33 starts for the Seattle Mariners last year. He struck out 219 batters over 197 innings. Wheeler was 13-6 with a 3.61 ERA across 32 starts and 192 innings for the Philadelphia Phillies. He struck 212 batters along the way.

Both are great fantasy options and have a chance to finish as the top fantasy SP in the game this season. 

Verdict: Even though Wheeler has the higher ADP, I prefer Castillo over him. He’s younger by a couple years and was pretty much better across the board in 2023. You really can’t go wrong with either guy though and it comes down to personal preference. Something to note is that you can land Castillo in the third round, so you could pass on Wheeler, draft another high-level player instead and then get a great SP in the third round with Castillo.

Evan Carter vs. Cody Bellinger

This is another fascinating matchup in my eyes. You have the young Carter who has impressed in limited MLB at-bats against a veteran Bellinger who has had up-and-down seasons over the past several seasons.

Carter played in just 23 games in 2023, but had a .306 average and .413 on-base percentage. He drove in 12 runs, clubbed five homers among his 10 extra-base hits and 19 total hits, scored 15 times and stole three bases. If you project those numbers out over a full season, Carter would be in contention for best fantasy hitter in the league.

Bellinger had a bounceback season in 2023, tallying a .307 average and .356 OBP. He had 153 total hits, including 56 extra-base hits (26 homers), 97 RBIs, 20 stolen bases and 95 runs. Belli played in 130 games.

Carter is projected to hit second for the Texas Rangers, while Bellinger hits third for the Chicago Cubs. That should afford both guys plenty of opportunities to drive in runs, steal bases and score runs if they can keep their averages up. The Texas lineup is definitely better top to bottom, so that also works in the favor of Carter.

Verdict: I was actually pretty surprised to see the ADP for Carter above 100 - Bellinger is around pick 70 right now. There’s a number of players going in between the two that I’d much prefer Carter over, so in my book, these two are a lot closer than on the ADP list. Making a decision between the two for me comes down to how my other outfielders are looking - if I got a couple of top-end guys, I’d be more inclined to take Carter and his upside; while Bellinger would be my pick if I was lacking top end OF talent (he’s also 1B eligible in a lot of leagues, so he also appeals because of that). If these two are really going to be separated by this many picks, your real objective should be to draft both players.