Fantasy Baseball Week 11 Drops: Matt Vierling, James McArthur, Sean Murphy and Ezequiel Tovar

Discussing some of the most-dropped fantasy hitters in the 11th week of the MLB season.

Usually, I put together a drop candidate story early in the week, but this week hasn’t had too many players outside starting pitchers streamers on the drop list on the FantasySP Waiver Trends.

There’s just enough players on the list now to warrant a story, so let’s get right to things!

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Matt Vierling Fantasy Outlook

Vierling had been a popular waiver wire option the past week or so, but Vierling is on a downward spiral again. He topped out at about a 77% own mark, and is now down to 69%.

In 55 games this season, Vierling is hitting .281, with a .311 on-base percentage. He’s got 19 extra-base hits (seven homers) among his 52 total hits. Vierling also has 28 RBIs, 26 runs, eight walks and 44 strikeouts on the season.

Vierling recently had a seven-game stretch in which he collected 14 total hits, including four home runs and three doubles. In the two games since, Vierling is 0-for-8, with three strikeouts and no times on base. Fantasy owners can be brutal sometimes, and this is one of those times.

Vierling was actually a decent fantasy option in deeper fantasy leagues a season ago, and is enjoying a career season this year. He’s on pace for career highs in just about every statistic.

I’ve said it before and will say it again, but I think fantasy baseball owners move on from players far too early. This isn’t a 17-game NFL season where things can change drastically from week to week. Players get on hot/cold streaks several times a year. 

I was on board with adding Vierling last week and think it’s too quick to move on from him. A two-game setback shouldn’t change your opinion on a hitter who was one of the hottest in the game for a little stretch. Stick with Vierling for a little bit longer and you’ll probably have yourself a good depth fantasy piece for most of the season.

A thing I loved about Vierling is his position versatility. He’s played over 20 games at third base and center field already, while also having some games in left and right field this season - and one at second base last year. Even if he’s a bench guy for a fantasy team, him being eligible at several positions is a great thing. It means he’ll be in the actual starting lineup often, and sometimes availability is the best thing for a fantasy player.

James McArthur Fantasy Outlook

McArthur had been closing games for the Royals, but after a couple runs allowed and some eighth-inning work, fantasy owners are bailing on McArthur. He’s now owned in 50% of leagues after being between 65-70% for several weeks.

For the season, McArthur is 2-2 with a 5.11 earned run average. He’s got 11 saves and 23 strikeouts over 24 2/3 innings.

On May 25, McArthur allowed an unearned run across two innings of work while getting a win. He pitched next on May 31, giving up four runs on four hits while failing to get an out - he blew a save that day. His most recent appearance was in the eighth inning in a 4-3 win, and he tossed a scoreless inning.

Fantasy owners can live with a blowup performance once in a while, but if he’s not got a lock on the closer role, then his fantasy value goes way down.

In standard leagues, he probably shouldn’t have been on fantasy teams anyways, but now he certainly shouldn’t be. In deeper leagues, I still like the idea of holding on to McArthur to see if he can right the ship and regain the closer role. He’s a reliever to keep an eye on for sure if he hits the waiver wire in your league.

Sean Murphy Fantasy Outlook

Murphy has had a rough go of things this season. He was picked around pick 150 in fantasy drafts, but has only played in seven total games thus far. That has him owned in just 66% of leagues right now.

In his seven games, Murphy has four hits, including a double. He’s got three RBIs, one run scored, two walks and six strikeouts.

A year ago, Murphy hit .251 and got on base at a .365 clip. He had 42 extra-base hits (21 homers) among his 93 total hits. Murphy had 68 RBIs, 65 runs scored, 49 walks and 98 strikeouts.

Those numbers and his ADP made him a sleeper pick in my eyes, but of course, not being on the field is really hurting his fantasy value.

Murphy got dinged up the other night, but is back in the team’s lineup on Thursday. He’s highly unlikely to touch a bunch of his stats from a season ago, but he should serve as the team’s primary catcher, if he’s healthy. I get things have been frustrating with Murphy, but I’d do my best to hold him, especially if you’ve been patient to this point.

Instead of dropping him, I’d actually suggest that fantasy owners add him if he’s available in their league. Right now, he can be your backup fantasy catcher. If he starts rounding into his 2023 form (which I expect once he can stay on the field for an extended period of time), you have an everyday fantasy starting catcher on your roster.

Ezequiel Tovar Fantasy Outlook

Tovar is another name that I’m confused to see on the drop list. He’s been around 75% owned, but is down to about 70% right now.

In 60 games this season, Tovar has a .292 average and .323 on-base percentage. He’s got 28 extra-base hits (eight home runs) among his 74 total hits. Tovar also has 24 RBIs, 32 runs, four stolen bases, 10 walks and 79 strikeouts on the season.

Tovar is playing in his third MLB season (after playing nine games in 2022). He’s nearly 40 points higher with his average from last year, and is on pace to shatter all the marks he posted last season.

I thought maybe that Tovar had struggled of late, but he’s got three hits over the past four contests. If we track things back to the past 13 games, Tovar has 21 hits, including six doubles and a homer. He does have 18 strikeouts over that span, but as I mentioned in a story on hitters trending upward, Tovar has been one of the best hitters in the league of late. I get he’s not producing many RBIs, but he’s scoring plenty of runs and delivering hit after hit.

Tovar is in the lineup just about every game and his hitting alone is enough to make him a good backup fantasy option at worst. He needs to be owned in all deeper leagues, and I think he’s shown enough to warrant a spot on many standard league fantasy teams.

I can understand if standard league owners wanted to drop Tovar, but at the same time, I can’t imagine there’s too many waiver wire options that are hitting more consistently than Tovar. I’d much rather just stash Tovar on the end of my bench than try to find a player that’s producing more than him. At worst, he’s a pretty solid backup infield option, and really could probably be starting in a bunch of leagues everyday.

#drops #2024-fantasy-baseball