Should You Trade For/Away Josh Naylor in Fantasy Baseball Leagues?

As we reach the halfway point of the MLB regular season, fantasy baseball trades become more and more popular.

During my daily perusal of the FantasySP Fantasy Baseball Trade Analyzer, I saw Cleveland Guardians’ Josh Naylor in a popular trade, and I thought it’d be a good idea to discuss how to approach Naylor in fantasy leagues.

I won’t necessarily get into specific players to trade for him, but will take a look at his season/career numbers, fantasy outlook and trade options. Let’s dive in!

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Naylor’s Season/Career Numbers

Naylor is having his worst season in terms of his batting average, but he’s making up for it with power - a lot of power.

Naylor has a .241 average this season, but is a career .265 hitter. He’s got a .319 on-base percentage this season, and a .324 mark for his career, so his lower average isn’t really affecting the OBP too greatly.

Naylor had 53 home runs across the first five seasons of his MLB career, but already has 20 bombs this season in 73 games. He’s drove in 58 runs, scored 43 times, stole three bases, walked 28 times and struck out on 56 occasions. Naylor also has 12 doubles this season.

Naylor is on pace to shatter his career best marks in homers, RBIs and runs scored, which certainly makes up for the lower overall average. Still, the power numbers this season compared to his career has fantasy owners wondering if they should sell high on Naylor.

Naylor’s Fantasy Outlook

Naylor is hitting cleanup for a pretty strong Cleveland lineup. The Guardians are tied for fifth in most runs scored, so players are getting on base, and giving Naylor a good chance for RBIs.

Of course, when you possess the home run totals that Naylor does, every time he steps to the plate is a chance to drive in at least a run. With Steven Kwan, Andres Gimenez and Jose Ramirez most often hitting in front of him, Naylor often has guys on base when he’s at the dish.

Although his power numbers could and probably will dip over the second half of the season, fantasy owners also have optimism that Naylor could bump his average up closer to his career marks and still be a great fantasy asset as a result.

Naylor’s strikeout percentage is the second-highest mark of his career, but with a career-high home run and walk percentage, fantasy owners can live with a few more strikeouts. 

Naylor is hitting the ball harder than any point of his career, along with having his highest hard hit percentage and one of his lower ground ball percentages, so if the home runs dip, his average should also improve and his overall fantasy impact wouldn’t take a massive hit.

Naylor’s Trade Options

With all that being said, I think Naylor’s trade value will dip as the season rolls along. After being drafted around pick 135, Naylor has one of the highest trade values on FantasySP’s list.

While I expect some falloff with Naylor, he’s still extremely likely to outperform his preseason expectations, so I can understand if a fantasy owner didn’t want to sell high and instead wanted to just enjoy whatever value Naylor brings.

Like most trade discussions, it comes down to what kind of fantasy team you have.

If you got Naylor around that ADP, and drafted well otherwise, trading Naylor could be done to fill in a position of need. If you were lucky enough to draft Naylor but didn’t draft super well otherwise, then holding Naylor would probably be your best option. 

He was drafted as a backup first baseman for many fantasy teams, and if your first option has been good, Naylor definitely could be moved to boost your team in an area of need.

In terms of trading for Naylor, I’m not a huge fan of that right now. He’s likely going to cost a premium player, or a combination of startable players. With his trade value being so high right now, I’d hold off on dealing for Naylor.

If Naylor’s homer numbers tail off before your league’s trade deadline, then you could maybe obtain Naylor for a much cheaper price, but still have a good starting option for the remainder of the season.

Whatever you decide to do regarding Naylor, be sure to run things through our trade analyzer before proposing or accepting a trade. Happy trading!