NBA Player Props Dec. 26: Alperen Sengun, Anfernee Simons, Trae Young and More

Christmas has come and gone, and the dog days of winter are setting in as the NBA regular season chugs along. It's a long season and tough to stay fully tuned in, but wagering on a game or player here and there can keep your interest, if only for a day. With that in mind, let's take a look at a handful of players pointing in certain directions today based on stats and matchups.

This is NOT a list of winners; it is simply a collection of good or bad matchups with reason to think the players will go over or under. Anything can happen in any game. Take these stats and opinions along with your own analysis and research before placing any wagers.

Advanced stats and pace numbers are from NBA.com. Defensive rankings against positions are from FantasySP and Fantasy Pros. Lines are from FanDuel and correct as of 2 p.m. Eastern Standard Time on Dec. 26.

Alperen Sengun, C Houston Rockets vs Indiana Pacers

OVER/UNDER 21.5 Points, 10.5 Rebounds, 32.5 Points+Rebounds

Sengun leads his team in points per game and rebounds per game in his third season. His big jump in stats has come with a similar leap in minutes, but he hasn’t lost much efficiency as his usage has increased.

The Pacers and Wizards (who we will hear from next) play at the fastest paces in the league, and Indiana allows a lot of counting stats to several positions, including big men. Centers are averaging the eighth-most points per game and power forwards the most points per game against the Pacers.

The pace is the biggest factor here, as the Rockets are the third-slowest team in the league. Extra possessions will mean more chances to score points and grab rebounds, and that will benefit Sengun maybe more than anyone else on Houston.

I like Sengun to have a big game and lead his team in both stat categories.

Confidence Ratings for Sengun

OVER 21.5 Points: 4 out of 5

OVER 10.5 Rebounds: 5 out of 5

OVER 32.5 Points+Rebounds: 4 out of 5

Paolo Banchero, PF Orlando Magic @ Washington Wizards

OVER/UNDER 24.5 Points, 7.5 Rebounds, 32.5 Points+Rebounds

Banchero was an immediate impact player after being selected first overall in last year’s draft. This season, he is leading the Magic in points per game and rebounds per game (among players to appear in at least 10 games), and he’s essentially tied with Franz Wagner for most shot attempts per game.

His heavy usage will mean more against the Wizards, one of the worst defensive teams around. As mentioned above, they are one of the two fastest teams in the league, so they give more high-value possessions to opponents than any other team.

Washington is allowing the sixth-most points per game and third-most rebounds per game to power forwards. They are the worst team in the NBA against both small forwards and centers in both categories.

The Wizards are a team waiting to be feasted upon, and Banchero is in position to take advantage. I feel good about him having a huge game.

Confidence Ratings for Banchero

OVER 24.5 Points: 4 out of 5

OVER 7.5 Rebounds: 5 out of 5

OVER 32.5 Points+Rebounds: 5 out of 5

Trae Young, PG Atlanta Hawks @ Chicago Bulls

OVER/UNDER 28.5 Points

Let’s go the other way with Young. He is an offensive superstar, but the Hawks have struggled all season, sitting below .500. Young isn’t necessarily the problem, but he’s averaging near the most shots per game, 3-point attempts per game, and points per game of his career.

The Hawks play at the fifth-fastest pace in the league while Chicago is the slowest team. Their speeds averaging out means less possessions for Atlanta than they are used to, hurting the chances of big production.

On top of that, the Bulls allow the least points per game to guards and, specifically, point guards. This is a team that puts pressure on the point of attack and doesn’t make anything easy.

This number is asking Young to beat his season scoring average (28.3); I see him struggling to hit that mark, while acknowledging that he will get his points.

Confidence Rating for Young UNDER 28.5 Points: 5 out of 5

Anfernee Simons, SG Portland Trail Blazers vs Sacramento Kings

OVER/UNDER 27.5 Points

Portland is a bottom-10 team in terms of pace while Sacramento is in the top 10: There will likely be more possessions for the Blazers than in their average game.

Simons has only played 10 games, but he easily leads the team in points per game and shot attempts per game in the time he has been on the court. With Damian Lillard in Milwaukee, Simons has taken over as the lead shot creator and sees a lot of valuable possessions.

That’s good news against Sacramento, who is giving up the fourth-most points per game to shooting guards. The ability of Simons to score the basketball has a good chance of showing through in this matchup, and I feel good about him going over his season average (26.9).

Confidence Rating for Simons OVER 27.5 Points: 4 out of 5

Spencer Dinwiddie, PG Brooklyn Nets @ Detroit Pistons

OVER/UNDER 14.5 Points

This is about the matchup more than anything else. Detroit allows more points per game to point guards than any other team. They also play at the seventh-fastest pace in the league, while Brooklyn is 19th.

Dinwiddie is one of three players on the Nets averaging near 11.5 shots and 14.5 points per game. As the third option at best, Dinwiddie isn’t the easiest player to trust, but he is a point guard and handles the ball more than other tertiary options, like forward Cam Johnson.

The matchup and speed of the game are both positives in favor of Dinwiddie, and I feel good about him beating his season average.

Confidence Rating for Dinwiddie OVER 14.5 Points: 4 out of 5