NBA Teams with the Best and Worst Matchups of the Week: Celtics, Knicks, Heat, Bucks and More
Five teams with overly positive or negative matchups from January 6-12.
We talk about streamers a lot in fantasy football, but the same concept is a successful strategy in fantasy basketball for those willing to put in time to find the right matchups. That’s the purpose of this article: I am finding teams that have the best and worst matchups for the week (Saturday through the following Friday, so January 6-12 this week).
Every decision should be made in the context of your team. This is more about the edges of your roster and the fungible players. Don’t sit a superstar or drop a highly productive player because of a stretch of bad matchups. Use this to fill positions where you don’t have a daily starter.
The Process
Every team’s schedule was compared against the top 10 and bottom 10 teams in pace and defensive rating, as measured by NBA.com.
Positive points were given when an opponent showed up in the top 10 in pace or the bottom 10 in defensive rating. Conversely, negative points were given when an opponent appeared in the bottom 10 in pace or top 10 in defensive rating.
Defensive rating is the number of points allowed per 100 possessions, so it isn’t affected by the speed at which a team plays. Pace is calculated with a formula you can find here, but it measures the number of possessions a team gets per 48 minutes (the length of an NBA game).
A team with a positive outcome has good matchups during the week, while teams with negative outcomes face slower opponents with better defenses.
Best Matchups
Boston Celtics +5
Opponents: Saturday @ Pacers, Monday @ Pacers, Wednesday vs Timberwolves, Thursday @ Bucks
The Pacers and Bucks are both in the top 10 in pace and the bottom 10 in defensive rating. The Wolves are a little tougher, including a top 10 defense, but this is a tasty week for Boston players.
Who is Available?
- Al Horford is a free agent in at least 50% of both Yahoo and ESPN leagues. He’s far from the star of his prime, but Horford is a good PF/C streamer this week. He has recorded at least eight rebounds seven times since Thanksgiving and is reliable for assists and blocks.
- Sam Hauser is a low-level streaming option, but he has had success against these teams this year: Hauser scored 17 and 15 points in two games against Indiana and 10 in his matchup with Milwaukee.
- Payton Pritchard has scored double-digit points 10 times this season and nine points another four times. Two of the 10-point games came against Indiana and Milwaukee (though he was held scoreless in 15 minutes in his other matchup with the Pacers).
New York Knicks +4
Opponents: Saturday @ Wizards, Tuesday vs Trail Blazers, Thursday @ Mavericks
The Wizards are both the fastest team in the league and the worst on defense. Not only can they not stop anyone, but they give the opponent plenty of chances to try. They are a team to target all season; Dallas is close to the same story. The Blazers are in the middle in both pace and defensive rating.
Who is Available?
- Josh Hart can slot in at both SG and SF in most leagues, and he is available in over 50% of Yahoo and ESPN leagues. Hart plays over 28 minutes per game and is in the top five among currently active Knicks in rebounds, assists and steals per game.
- Isaiah Hartenstein has seen his minutes spike since Mitchell Robinson was injured around a month back. He has recorded at least eight rebounds in 12 of his 14 games since that time, while playing at least 29 minutes in all but two games.
- Donte DiVincenzo is one of my favorite role players in the league, averaging over 10 PPG and doing a lot of different things on the court that help his team win. That translates more to real basketball than fantasy sometimes, but he still has the ability to fill the box score. DiVincenzo scored 38 points on December 30.
Philadelphia 76ers +4
Opponents: Saturday vs Jazz, Wednesday @ Hawks, Friday vs Kings
The 76ers and Knicks are the only two teams this week who received only positive points from their opponents, meaning none of them play slow or excel on defense. The Hawks are the play fast/bad defense team here, while the Jazz are a bottom-10 defense and the Kings play at a top-10 pace.
Who is Available?
- De'Anthony Melton and Kelly Oubre Jr.have very similar stats, both averaging near 12-13 points, four rebounds, 10 shot attempts and two 3-pointers per game. Melton averages nearly two steals and four assists per game, while Oubre is around one steal and assist. Both guys are good role players who are stream-able this week.
Worst Matchups
Miami Heat -3
Opponents: Monday vs Rockets, Wednesday vs Thunder, Friday vs Magic
The Thunder have a top-10 defense but also play at a top-10 pace, cancelling out their positive and negative. The Rockets play slow and have a good defense, and Orlando has a top-five defensive rating. This is a tough week of matchups, and the Heat already play at a bottom-10 pace themselves.
Who to Drop or Sit
- You’re not worrying about Jimmy Butler, Bam Adebayo, or Tyler Herro when they're active.
- Jaime Jaquez Jr. has rightly become a player who should remain rostered. It’s reasonable to bench him in the tough matchups, but don’t drop Jaquez.
- Kyle Lowry, Duncan Robinson, Josh Richardson, Kevin Love and other role players can be dropped or remain in the free agency pool.
Milwaukee Bucks -3
Opponents: Saturday @ Rockets, Monday vs Jazz, Thursday vs Celtics
While the Jazz are a bottom-10 defense, both the Rockets and Celtics are top-10 defenses and play at bottom-10 paces. Those teams are two of the biggest to avoid in fantasy and both show up in the same week.
Who to Drop or Sit
- Milwaukee has a lot of keepers, so this is tougher than with some other teams. You are almost always playing Giannis Antetokounmpo, Damian Lillard, Brook Lopez and Khris Middleton.
- Bobby Portis is one to leave on the bench against Houston and Boston, but don’t drop him.
- Pat Connaughton, Cameron Payne and Malik Beasley are names you can let go into free agency.
Other Notes
- Dallas, Golden State and Brooklyn all received two negative points and no positives. They have mostly neutral matchups with a lean toward the negative.
- The Rockets have a defined mixture of tougher and easier matchups, with games against the softer Bucks and Pistons sandwiching games against the stouter Heat and Bulls.
- Detroit, Memphis, Sacramento and Utah all have the opposite schedule difficulty of Houston, seeing tough teams at the beginning and end of the week with softer matchups in the middle.
