Best NBA Player Props for Jan. 5: Rudy Gobert, Stephen Curry, Trae Young and More

Now that the holiday season has passed, the next thing to look forward to is the All-Star break in the middle of February. That means around six weeks for players and teams to solidify their places in anticipation of the trade deadline. Let's look at a handful of players with matchups on today that point toward an expected performance, for better and worse.

This is NOT a list of winners; it is simply a collection of good or bad matchups with reason to think the players will go over or under. Anything can happen in any game. Take these stats and opinions along with your own analysis and research before placing any wagers.

Advanced stats and pace numbers are from NBA.com. Defensive rankings against positions are from FantasySP and Fantasy Pros. Lines are from FanDuel and correct as of 1 p.m. Eastern Standard Time on Jan. 5.

 

Jarrett Allen, C Cleveland Cavaliers vs Washington Wizards

OVER/UNDER 18.5 Points, 13.5 Rebounds, 32.5 Points+Rebounds

Washington is both the fastest and worst defensive team in the league. Big men ravage the inside against the Wizards, as evidenced by allowing the most points and rebounds per game to centers.

These teams played on Wednesday (when I also chose Allen), and the Cleveland center had 17 points and 19 rebounds. I’m expecting another big performance in the rematch after a day off.

I see rebounds as easier to come by than points for Allen, as was the case on Wednesday. Allen should be able to make himself at home near the basket and excel again.

Confidence Ratings for Allen

OVER 18.5 Points: 3 out of 5

OVER 13.5 Rebounds: 5 out of 5

OVER 32.5 Points+Rebounds: 4 out of 5

 

Stephen Curry, PG Golden State Warriors vs Detroit Pistons

OVER/UNDER 30.5 Points

Detroit moves fast: They play at the sixth-fastest pace in the league. Golden State is at league average over the course of the season, but they’ve played much slower since Draymond Green was suspended. Detroit is likely to speed up the venerable Warriors.

The Pistons allow the fourth-most points per game to guards and the second-most to point guards. Their young guards are still coming of age (and struggling, if you couldn’t tell from the recent 28-game losing streak), and they will likely be menaced by the crafty Curry.

Steph is doing Steph things, averaging 27.6 points and nearly five 3-pointers per game, both close to his career averages. This number wants him to go over his average, but I am confident in the future Hall-of-Famer in this juicy matchup.

Confidence Rating for Curry OVER 30.5 Points: 5 out of 5

 

Trae Young, PG Atlanta Hawks @ Indiana Pacers

OVER/UNDER 28.5 Points

It’s not often Atlanta (fifth in the league in pace) finds a team faster than they are, but Indiana is one of the few, playing at the second highest speed. The Pacers remind me of the Phoenix Suns when Steve Nash first arrived: They always play at hyper-speed and are driven by their point guard, in this case Tyrese Haliburton.

The other thing they have in common with those Phoenix teams is that they give up a lot of points while they are busy scoring them. Indiana is especially vulnerable against big men, but they have given up the eighth-most points per game to guards.

This number wants Young to go slightly above his average (28.3), but I’m expecting a big game given the matchup and likely pace of the game.

Confidence Rating for Young OVER 28.5 Points: 5 out of 5

 

Terry Rozier, G Charlotte Hornets @ Chicago Bulls

OVER/UNDER 23.5 Points

This column is usually looking for overs. It’s more fun to root for an over, as we want to see points scored more than a defensive struggle. Sometimes, though, and with certain teams, there’s no other way to look at it: The game is going to be ugly.

That’s a good way to classify Chicago games, as the Bulls play at the slowest pace in the league and have the sixth-worst offensive rating. Charlotte is fifth worst, so these teams should feel right at home with each other in a defensive struggle.

Alex Caruso hounds lead ball handlers, and with LaMelo Ball out for an extended period, a lot of that duty falls to Rozier. Excluding Ball, Rozier leads the team in scoring (24.1) and shot attempts per game.

This number is only asking Rozier to hit his season average, but given the matchup and likely pace, this will be a tough matchup for the guard.

Confidence Rating for Rozier UNDER 23.5 Points: 4 out of 5

 

Rudy Gobert, C Houston Rockets vs Minnesota Timberwolves

OVER/UNDER 12.5 Points

While writing an article about the best and worst matchups of the next week, I was surprised to find that Houston has the fourth-best defensive rating in the league (points allowed per 100 possessions). They also play at the fourth-slowest pace, so the Rockets limit possessions and defend well in the ones they do face.

Houston has been particularly effective against big men, holding both power forwards and centers to the fifth-fewest points per game of all teams. Center Alperen Sengun has come on in his third season and entered the All-Star conversation, creating a presence in the middle.

Gobert is scoring 12.6 points per game, so this number is only asking him to get to his average. Given the tough matchup and slow speed of the game, though (the Wolves are 20th in pace), this will be a tougher game for the former Defensive Player of the Year to find room to score.

The number is fairly low compared to the totals of Curry and Young, and a few offensive rebounds can help Gobert blow past this prop, but I’m counting on the improved Rockets to make things tough on the inside.

Confidence Rating for Gobert UNDER 12.5 Points: 4 out of 5