The Box Score: Five NBA Numbers that Stood Out Monday | Terry Rozier, Andre Drummond, Giannis Antetokounmpo and More
Digging into the fantasy impact and lessons we can take from a handful of player performances on Jan. 8.
Every night in the NBA is different. The same guys often excel, but outliers and clues to future production abound when sifting through box scores.
Here are five numbers (or sets of numbers) that stood out Monday night and the fantasy basketball impact or lesson we can take away.
Advanced stats are from NBA.com. Defensive rankings against positions are from FantasySP and Fantasy Pros. Be sure to check out Morgan Rode's takeaways of the NBA night to get a wider scope of what happened in the league on Monday.
Terry Rozier – 39 Points
Rozier played 44 minutes, as this game went into overtime, but he scored all 39 of his points during regulation. Charlotte only scored five points in the extra period. Rozier attempted just 18 shots, but 13 of them came from 3-point range (he made seven), and he was 12-12 from the free throw line.
This would be a huge performance against any team, but it’s especially impressive against the Bulls. Chicago plays at the slowest pace in the league and allows the least points per game to point guards.
In earlier games against Chicago, Rozier had 25 and 15 points (the latter last Friday). He nearly doubled his average versus the Bulls in this one.
Fantasy Impact
Rozier is second on his team in scoring average, shot attempts per game, and 3-point attempts per game. The only player ahead of him is LaMelo Ball, who has been injured and only played 15 games. While Rozier will continue to have value, he will likely take a small step back when Ball returns (which should be soon).
Keeping Rozier is a good plan, but it’s worth seeing if someone will trade for him as a lead guard before he steps back into the Robin role.
Andre Drummond – 21 Points, 15 Rebounds
Most impressively, Drummond did this damage in just 23 minutes. In the same overtime game as Rozier, Drummond wasn’t afforded any of the extra time and was instead uber-efficient. Fellow center Nikola Vucevic had 21 points and 10 rebounds in 30 minutes, but four of his points and four rebounds came in overtime.
Fantasy Impact
This is more about the Hornets than anything else. Drummond and Vucevic are both players who can stuff the stat sheet, but Charlotte is allowing the second-most points per game and rebounds per game to centers.
Big men are given free reign underneath against the Hornets; stream centers accordingly. The Kings, Spurs and Heat all get a juicy matchup with Charlotte between Wednesday and Sunday.
Jaylen Brown – 40 Points
Brown reached 40 points for the first time this season. In a related story, Jayson Tatum missed the game with injury. In the previous two games Tatum missed, Brown scored 31 and 28 points.
It’s not surprising that Brown scores at a high volume without his fellow superstar, but it’s important to pay attention to who handles the ball and takes the shots when a high-usage player misses a game. Sometimes it will be a bench player who takes a bigger role, but other times, it’s a second option like Brown or Rozier taking on lead duties.
Fantasy Impact
This is more of a general observation than specific to Brown: Circumstances change quickly, and you can gain an edge by paying attention to how teams compensate with important players out. If Tatum were to suffer a long-term injury, for instance, Brown’s value would spike to a level just below the top tier.
Giannis Antetokounmpo – 25 Points, 10 Rebounds, 11 Assists
Giannis is great; we don’t need to belabor the point. Triple-doubles are much more common now than in years past, but that speaks to the greatness of the players more than anything else. Giannis will keep doing his thing.
I would be remiss if I didn’t mention that the Bucks lost 132-116 to the Jazz; that’s the main highlight here. Five Jazz players scored at least 19 points. This line for Antetokounmpo may point to bigger issues, as Milwaukee was able to fall to a 17-20 Utah team while their own superstar was excelling.
Fantasy Impact
Milwaukee has the ninth-worst defensive rating in the league. A general rule is that a team needs to be near the top 10 in both offense and defense if they want to compete for a title, so Milwaukee’s apathy on D so far is alarming.
Things may get better as the team continues to build continuity after major offseason changes, but the Bucks are currently a defense to target when looking at your fantasy options. Just because they have a great record and big names doesn’t mean you should be scared of Milwaukee.
James Harden – 19 Points, 10 Assists
Harden will never again reach the numbers of his MVP heights, but he has still been productive in the box score on a consistent basis. His 17.4 points per game are tied for 60th, but he ranks sixth in the league in assists (8.4 per game).
He is viewed in a (relatively) negative light due to his spot as third banana and the horrible PR he’s given himself over the last few seasons, but Harden is maybe in the perfect spot for this point in his career.
Fantasy Impact
He plays with two stars who have missed considerable time with injury (Kawhi Leonard and Paul George) and can take over when those guys are out, so Harden could rise to elite-level production for a short period when Leonard takes a hiatus.
Harden isn’t available on the free agent market, but he’s probably fairly easy to pry from another owner with a trade. His baseline is the current production we see, and the upside is considerable given the players’ histories.