Week 16 NFL PrizePicks Prop Plays: Derrick Henry, Travis Kelce & More!
PrizePicks is offering tons of great prop bets for NFL Week 16 just like they do each and every week. It’s a fun and easy site to make bets on. They give you a stat for each player and you pick More or Less. It doesn’t get any simpler than that.
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Week 16 NFL PrizePicks Props To Target
DeShaun Watson, Cleveland Browns (150.5 Passing Yards)
We are getting another disastrous weather game in Cleveland this weekend. We tend to see this a few times a season and it never goes well for the passing attacks. This game will feature extreme cold and heavy winds. It is expected that there will be sustained winds of 30 MPH with wind gusts over 50 MPH. Before factoring in wind chill the temperature is expected to drop under 15 degrees. Precipitation shouldn’t be a major factor, however, there could be a bit mixed in.
Even in perfect weather, Watson hasn’t been very good this season. In two of his three games since returning, he has thrown for 161 and 131 yards. Those two games were against the Ravens and Texans. The Ravens have the 25th-ranked pass defense and Houston the 19th. The Saints currently have the sixth-ranked pass defense. According to our New Prop Over/Under Rankings Tool, in those two games he missed the consensus sportsbook line by a combined 161 yards. That was in good weather.
The Pick: Less than 150.5 Passing Yards
Desmond Ridder, Atlanta Falcons (140.5 Passing Yards)
We are going to bet against Ridder this week and potentially moving forward until he proves he can do anything through the air. Last week was the first time in his young career that he got on the field and it was not pretty. He only managed to throw for 97 yards on 26 attempts. Despite limited data for obvious reasons, our Prop Over/Under Rankings Tool shows that he missed his consensus sportsbook line by more than 69 yards.
He takes on the Ravens this week who have been bad against the pass this season as a whole but have vastly improved during the second half of the season. Over the last six games, only two quarterbacks have thrown for over 210 yards and three of them were held under 200. This could also be another bad-weather game as well.
The Pick: Less than 140.5 Passing Yards
Derrick Henry, Tennessee Titans (105.5 Rushing Yards)
If King Henry takes on the Texans you bet the over. It’s that simple. According to our Prop Over/Under Rankings Tool, over his last four games against Houston, he has averaged an otherworldly 223 rushing yards per game with his worst performance being 211 yards. He’s also averaged 30 rushing attempts per game and that number won’t be coming down this week because Malik Willis will be back under center. He has proven to be completely inept. In two starts this season he has only managed to throw for a total of 135 yards on 26 attempts and chip in with just 52 rushing yards. In those two games, Henry carried the ball a combined 49 times for 334 yards. There is zero reason to believe he won’t rush for 106 yards this weekend.
The Pick: More than 105.5 Rushing Yards
Josh Jacobs, Las Vegas Raiders (87.5 Rushing Yards)
Jacobs is another back that is just handed the ball over and over week after week. It’s been seven weeks since the last time he didn’t see at least 20 carries in a game. During that run, he averaged 25.5 carries and 125.3 rushing yards per game. According to our Prop Over/Under Rankings Tool he has hit the over in 83% of his games during that span and 79% of games for the entire season. We have also been dead right on hitting on his rushing yard props over 80% of the time this season. This will be yet another terrible weather game in Pittsburgh at night, so the Raiders will be looking to run the ball even more than usual this week too.
The Pick: More than 87.5 Rushing Yards
Travis Kelce, Kansas City Chiefs (75.5 Receiving Yards)
According to our Prop Over/Under Rankings Tool, Kelce’s average line this season has been right about where it is this week at 75.6 receiving yards per game. He has hit that mark in eight of 14 games with an average result of 81.7 yards. However, when it comes to his actual lines this season he has been over seven times and under seven times. So he’s at exactly 50%. This week he should climb back over that .500 mark because this matchup is fantastic. He takes on the Seahawks who have allowed 919 receiving yards per game to tight ends this season. That’s over 65.5 yards per game to any scrub TE who might be lined up against them. That’s the third most in the NFL. We promise you none of those tight ends were as good as Kelce because no one in the league is close to his level.
The Pick: More than 75.5 Receiving Yards
DJ Moore, Carolina Panthers (53.5 Receiving Yards)
Betting on Moore and even worse Sam Darnold is always a scary proposition. However, he’s been much better with Darnold since he came back as the starter than he was with anyone else. According to our Prop Over/Under Rankings Tool, he has smashed the over in two of his last three games since the return of Darnold. For the entirety of the season, he’s only hit the over 36% of the time so it looks like things are finally getting better. Nevertheless, in that third game, he did put up a zero so there is risk involved. With that said, the tool also shows that against bottom ten defenses he has hit the over 50% of the time and 67% of the time against bottom five defenses.
This shows the matchups are a major factor in Moore’s success and this week he takes on the Lions. The Detroit defense ranks 30th in the league against the pass and has allowed 2,835 receiving yards to wide receivers specifically which is the most in the entire league. Moore should be able to exploit another plus matchup this week.
The Pick: More than 53.5 Receiving Yards
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