The Best NFL Futures Bet
With the expansion of sports betting throughout the country, it is easier than ever to place a wager if you choose to. A bet is as easy as adding an app to your phone. You can bet on anything, from a straight bet to a multi-team parlay. You can bet on whether someone hits a HR or scores a TD. You can play DFS or pick a Super Bowl winner.
Aside from making a future bet on the Super Bowl, you can also bet on team win totals. This is a bet on whether you think a team will go over or under the win total Vegas has set. This is where a very intriguing situation has occurred with the New England Patriots … on two fronts.
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Patriots Win Total Bet
With the massive expansion of online sports sites, there are situations when one site may post different odds than another. Throughout the summer, the Patriots have consistently had a total of 7.5 wins across the board on all sites. Although I don’t think the team will end the season above seven wins, I can’t bring myself to take the under. That would make them 7-10 at best, posting double-digit losses for the first in two decades.
However, this past week, BetMGM has lowered New England's line to 6.5 wins. When a line moves, the book is usually looking for money to go in the opposite direction. They obviously have gotten a ton of “under” money and are enticing “over” money to come in.
Although I have no faith in this Patriots team and believe they very well could end up in last place in the AFC East, I have a really hard time believing they won’t at least find seven wins this season. BetMGM is luring “over” money … it has worked on me.
I will be taking the Patriots OVER 6.5 wins.
This is also a great opportunity to “middle”. In gambling vernacular, middling is when a line moves and you try to bet both sides, to win twice. Every other site is still listing the Pats at 7.5 wins. Depending on the site, the odds vary between -120 and -140, which means you have to risk between $120 and $140 to win $100. Meanwhile, BetMGM has the Patriots at 6.5 wins, for -140 odds if you take the over.
If you want to get frisky, you can go to one of those other sites (find one with the best odds). If you bet $1,200 under 7.5 wins at -120, you’ll be risking $1,200 to win $1,000. If you grab the over 6.5 wins at -140, you can risk $1,400 to win $1000. If the Pats end with a 7-10 record, winning exactly seven games, you’ll win both bets, profiting $2,000. If they win over seven games, you’ll win the over and lose the under, posting a net loss of $200. If they win under seven games, you’ll net -$400.
It is true you have to thread the needle to win both bets, but the risk/reward makes it something to consider. At most, you’re risking $400 to win $2,000, 5x your investment. Seasoned gamblers search for these types of anomalies and opportunities. If you’re a casual bettor who doesn't bet that much, reduce it by a factor of 10, If you bet $120 and $140, you’ll either lose $20, lose $40, or win $200.
If you’re like most gamblers, you do it to have something extra to root for with the added layer of excitement because money is on the line. With this Patriots team, this bet will most likely come down to the very end of the season, giving you the ultimate bang for your buck in excitement, if not profit.
