Fantasy Football Boom or Bust? Tight Ends To Avoid: Mark Andrews, Darren Waller, and More!
Finding sleepers is one of the most important things you can do in your fantasy football draft, but avoiding busts is an underrated important part of draft-day too.
Busts aren't just the guys who are going to end up sitting on waiver wires all year. They're also (and perhaps more importantly) the guys you end up drafting too high and not returning value. That's incredibly important because that quarterback you overdraft by three rounds is going to make you miss out on a sure-thing running back or wide receiver.
I'll never put a player on a "DO NOT DRAFT" list. Everyone is worth drafting at the right price. But we should always be looking for value in drafts, and spending draft picks on guys who will provide a negative return is one of the best ways to put yourself at a disadvantage right out of the gate.
With quarterback, running back, and wide receiver busts already covered, let's dig into a few of the running backs who are being drafted too high right now.
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Fantasy Football Tight Ends To Avoid
Mark Andrews
I'll preface this all by saying that Mark Andrews is the best non-Travis Kelce tight end to have on your fantasy team.
But do you really need him on your fantasy team?
Sure, he saw about a third of the Ravens targets last year, but Baltimore also just added a first-round receiver in Zay Flowers and they ponied up quite a bit of cash for Odell Beckham Jr. They'll also see the return to health (theoretically) of Rashod Bateman, and all three of those players will likely eat into Andrews production (which decreased last season as compared to the year before).
I have no issue drafting Andrews if he falls a round or two below his current ADP of 31 -- which is right around where players like DeVonta Smith, Tee Higgins, Kenneth Walker, Joe Mixon, and D.K. Metcalf are being drafted.
If you can wait a bit on tight end (while taking Higgins or someone like that in place of Andrews), you'll be able to get tight ends like Dallas Goedert and Kyle Pitts a full three rounds later than Andrews. And if you can wait even longer, you'll be able to get tight ends like Pat Freiermuth, Cole Kmet, or Tyler Higbee (all top-10 tight ends last season) a full six-to-eight rounds later.
T.J. Hockenson
Along the same lines as Andrews, Hockenson is a really good player who is just way too expensive in fantasy drafts right now.
He's currently being taken in the third or fourth round of most drafts with an ADP of 45 as TE3. Players being taken in the same range include the likes of Calvin Ridley, Keenan Allen, Justin Fields, and D.J. Moore.
Hockenson was great last year, but the Vikings also went and added a first-round wide receiver so it's not like he's going to see more targets this season.
If you take last year's stats, the difference between Hockenson and Tyler Higbee (ADP of 145 as TE16) was 3.8 fantasy points per game. While 3.8 points per game isn't insignificant, it's also not a big enough difference to make up for the 13 or 14 rounds of a gap there.
I'm not saying 2023's stats will look like 2022's stats, but those are a lot of rounds you can stockpile running backs and wide receivers while you wait on tight end.
Darren Waller
I really like Darren Waller. He's been a great player. He's been a difference-maker on fantasy teams.
But I just can't bring myself to draft him at an ADP of 58 at TE5.
I know he was dealing with some injury issues (and Josh McDaniels issues?), but we're also talking about a guy who has played all of 20 games over the past two seasons.
While Waller possesses the massive upside we saw in 2019-20, that was also three years ago and you can get Dallas Goedert a round later. Or Pat Freiermuth three rounds later.
And you can get someone like Trevor Lawrence, Javonte Williams, Drake London, or Mike Williams by waiting.
Evan Engram
Staying along the lines of "I like the player...just not at that price" theme, Engram is being taken way too early (in my humble opinion) at an ADP of 84 as TE8.
To be fair, he finished as TE5 last year so what the heck am I talking about?!
Well, while Engram obviously had a fantastic season last year, he still only put up 766 yards and four touchdowns. His average fantasy points more than David Njoku was 0.1 points per game played. Moreso, half of Engram's production last year coming within a four-game stretch.
The addition Calvin Ridley of Calvin Ridley to the offense won't help either as Engram is bound to lose at least a few targets.
Ultimately, Engram is a good player who very well may finish as TE8, but I just have a hard time seeing him exceeding value and would rather wait a few rounds.
Chigoziem Okonkwo
Okonkwo is being selected at an average ADP of 132 as TE13.
That's not entirely egregious, but that's also baking in a lot of hopeful upside considering he's being taken ahead of Dalton Kincaid, Tyler Higbee, and Gerald Everett.
While I'm not saying either of those three will dominate fantasy leagues, I don't see why it's worth taking Okonwko a full round or two earlier than any of them.
He's playing in a run-first offense, and DeAndre Hopkins is due to gobble up a lot of the limited targets alongside Treylon Burks.
Okonkwo had a few good games last year, but his current ADP is baking in his ceiling. Similar to everyone I've written about, I'd rather wait and get a similar value multiple rounds later.
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