Best NFL MVP, Super Bowl Bets: Can The Jaguars Take The Next Step?

Next week another NFL season commences with the defending Super Bowl champion Kansas City Chiefs hosting the upstart “It” team, Detroit Lions. With another season there is another year of fantasy football, DFS, office pools and survivor leagues. And of course, there is gambling, mostly legal these days since sports betting is pretty much legal everywhere.

For the next five months, you’ll be able to make a football wager every Monday, Thursday and Sunday … and towards the end of the year you can sprinkle in the random Saturday game, and now, the inaugural Black Friday games the day after the Thanksgiving games.

Get ready for draft season! Practice Mock Drafts, check out ADPs, grab our fantasy football rankings, and get advice for trades with our trade analyzer.

Best NFL MVP Bet

Aside from betting on individual games throughout the year, this is the time of year when so many Futures bets are placed, betting on the over/under win totals for teams or even who will win the league’s MVP … for the record, everyone currently in the top 10 of MVP odds are QBs, with Joe Burrow as the favorite at +600 and Patrick Mahomes on his tail at +650. 

Rounding out the top 10 is Aaron Rodgers at +1,600. This feels like a sneaky great pick to risk $100 for a chance to win $1600. He’s a 4x winner of the award and has won it in two of the past three seasons. He’s motivated to prove he’s not done and also has to prove he can win in New York. He clearly values the award very mch and it can argued that he hasn’t had this much talent around him in years.

Best Super Bowl Bets

And of course, the Cadillac of sports wagers, picking a Super Bowl champion at the start of the year. Anyone can take one of the favorites with short odds, but where's the fun in that?

I have a specific strategy I like to use when picking a Super Bowl champion. I like to pick one AFC and one NFC team that each have decent odds to provide a big win if they hit. But of course, there are other criteria than just odds to consider. To begin with, do they actually have a path to win it? Are they in a division that they can win? Although Wild Card teams have won Super Bowls, it’s important to at least choose a team you think will at least have a top-four seed, especially with the new format with only the No. 1 seed getting a bye. That gives you a home playoff game in Wild Card Week.

In looking at the lay of the land, I’ve chosen my two teams in weak divisions who should each win going away. The teams come out of the AFC and NFC South Divisions. They are the Jacksonville Jaguars and the New Orleans Saints.

Why The Jaguars Could Win the Super Bowl

I’ll start with the Jaguars; they have third-year QB Trevor Lawrence, who should be coming into his own and have a career year. He will be in his second season under HC Doug Pederson and will build off their playoff performance last year. And they are in a terrible division, which has the Indianapolis Colts with rookie QB Anthony Richardson, the Houston Texans with rookie QB C.J. Stroud, and a Tennesse Titans team just looking for a reason to put rookie Will Levis in. 

To give you an idea of what Las Vegas thinks of those teams, Tennessee is 100/1, Indianapolis is 125/1 and Houston is 200/1 to win the Super Bowl. It is a long shot that any of those teams will even make the playoffs, never mind winning the division. This will ensure that Jacksonville hosts at least one playoff game. If they wind up with the No. 2 seed, they will have a second-round home game as well. And if the No. 1 seed stubs their toe in their first playoff game, the Jaguars would host the AFC Championship game in this scenario.

But do they have a realistic chance at the No. 1 or No. 2 seed? If we look at the competition, Buffalo is favored to win the AFC East, but the Jets now have Aaron Rodgers and are vastly improved. And many are picking the Jets as a dark horse to come out of the East. One thing is certain, the Bills have much more competition in their division than the Jaguars in the AFC South, and they won’t just sleepwalk into a 13-4 record. 

The AFC North should be a dogfight with an improving Steelers team and a Ravens team with Lamar Jackson in the fold and happy. And although the Bengals are the favorites to win that division, QB Joe Burrow is dealing with a calf injury and may not even be ready for Week 1.

Kansas City should again come out of the AFC West and could very well be the No. 1 seed. But one of these years the Chargers will reach their potential. Denver under HC Sean Peyton should be improved, and the same holds true for the Raiders. It was only a year ago that everyone thought all four AFC West teams would be in the playoffs.

The Jaguars are 25/1 to win the Super Bowl. There are enough reasons for me to believe they will win their division which will give them a puncher's chance, and they have the coach and the quarterback to make it happen.

Why The Saints Could Win the Super Bowl

The Saints are a longer shot, with 35/1 odds, and rightfully so … but I like them for many of the same reasons. They will be coming out of a putrid division that has the Atlanta Falcons, Carolina Panthers and Tampa Bay Buccaneers. QB Derek Carr comes from the Las Vegas Raiders and instantly becomes the best starting QB in the division. He has Michael Thomas and Chris Olave to get the ball to, along with Alvin Kamara (after his three-game suspension is over). And as a blast from the past, TE Jimmy Graham has made the team and looked really solid in the preseason. And they still have a stellar defense.

Although I don’t think the Saints have the juice to be the No. 1 seed and get the bye, or even win the No. 2 seed, they will surely get at least one playoff game in the Superdome. Unlike the AFC, the NFC is wide open, there isn’t one great team. One could argue that the Eagles may be starting a long run, but would anyone be surprised if the Cowboys won that division? 

The 49ers could be the team to beat out west and end up with the No.1 seed, but they don’t look like world-beaters on paper, and who knows what the fallout will be from the Trey Lance fiasco … you can’t put too much stock on Mr. Irrelevant, can you? Brock Purdy is a nice story, but can he lead them all the way? 

And then there’s the NFC North. Green Bay is without Aaron Rodgers, the Bears are still building, and although I’d love to see that plucky bunch in Detroit continue to progress, would anyone be shocked if they turned back into a pumpkin? Remember, for all the hoopla surrounding them and their 8-2 finish, they did not make the playoffs last season. Minnesota still may be the best team in that division, and they aren’t a juggernaut. The odds are stacked against them to win all of those close games again.

What I’m saying is, the NFC is wide open, and I’ll take my chances with a 35/1 shot that seems solidly likely to win their division and reach the playoffs.

So there you have it, a Jacksonville Jaguars/New Orleans Saints Super Bowl. If you’re curious, the odds of this matchup if you parlay both together are 280/1.