Jamaal Williams vs. Khalil Herbert vs. Dalvin Cook | Who Should You Start Week 1?
The running back position continues to be a tough one to finalize for fantasy owners in week 1. FantasySP’s “Who Should I Start?” fantasy tool has running back battles all over the trending decisions, so let’s continue to break down the matchups.
The top two matchups involve New Orleans Saints’ Jamaal Williams, with him going up against Chicago Bears’ Khalil Herbert and New York Jets’ Dalvin Cook. Which of the three backs should you be starting this week if you own a couple of them? Let’s break it all down.
Tough start decision? We have you covered. Find out in depth stats, red zone opportunities, projections, breaking news, and crowdsourcing real fantasy owners faced with the same start/sit decision. Check out our Who Should I Start tool.
Why You Should Start Jamaal Williams
Williams is the undoubted No. 1 back for the Saints as the season kicks off. Regular starter Alvin Kamara is out a couple weeks serving a suspension and rookie Kendre Miller isn’t ready for full starter snaps at this point.
Williams was a fantasy star in 2022, scoring 17 touchdowns and gaining 1,066 rushing yards on 262 carries. He isn’t much of a threat in the passing game, after tallying 73 yards on 12 receptions and 16 overall targets.
New Orleans has been led offensively by Kamara for several years now, and there’s no reason to think Williams couldn’t fill that role until Kamara returns. Williams and the Saints have a home matchup in week 1 against the Tennessee Titans in the first slate of Sunday games.
That figures to be a tough matchup for Williams as the Titans were second in the league in rushing yards against (1,068) last season. They tied for second in fewest rushing touchdowns allowed, with just six. Tennessee is a little beat up on the defensive side of things going into the game, but there’s a chance everyone plays and the unit is at full strength.
The Saints are pretty healthy offensively. Miller is one of the two offensive players that have missed multiple practices this week, which could mean an even larger workload for Williams in week 1.
Why You Should Start Khalil Herbert
Herbert is listed as the Bears’ starting running back after the departure of David Montgomery this past offseason. Herbert is entering his third season in Chicago and produced a 731-yard, four-touchdown season despite being in a complementary role in 2022.
D’Onta Foreman and rookie Roschon Johnson are also part of the running back room, and with the team’s recent history of utilizing multiple backs offensively, that clouds the judgment for some Herbert owners. There’s also quarterback Justin Fields to take into account, as he has plenty of designed runs and scrambles each week that could take away from Herbert’s production.
The Bears’ rushing attack has a favorable matchup in week 1, going up against a Green Bay Packers’ defense that was among the worst in the league in rushing yards allowed (1,925). The Pack’s defense was also in the bottom half in rushing scores allowed (13).
Two of Chicago’s wins in 2022 came when the rushing game was firing on all cylinders. The team finished with over 100 rushing yards in all but three games, and went over 200 yards on seven occasions, so the opportunity for Herbert to be a strong week 1 starter is out there.
Why You Should Start Dalvin Cook
Cook will be playing in his first game for the Jets after spending the first six years of his career as a member of the Minnesota Vikings. Cook is listed as the backup to Breece Hall as the Jets prepare for a home game against the Buffalo Bills on Monday night.
While it might seem pretty simple that Cook isn’t a guy you want to start in week 1, a quick look at the team’s injury report starts to change your mind. Hall was a limited participant at practice on Thursday. If he can’t go, Cook’s value clearly rises, but even if Hall plays, Cook should get plenty of touches.
Several NFL teams have shown that two running backs can be productive in the same offense, and many of the Packers’ teams quarterback Aaron Rodgers played for utilized two backs. Nathaniel Hackett is the team’s offensive coordinator, and he was in Green Bay with Rodgers for a couple seasons.
It remains to be been just how many touches each back gets, but it wouldn’t surprise me if they each got double-digit touches in week 1 and for a couple weeks to follow, especially as Hall deals with an injury and they try to preserve both backs.
The Bills were a tough team to run against a season ago, with 1,409 yards and 10 touchdowns allowed, with those marks being in the top half in the league.
Final Start Decision Between Williams, Herbert and Cook
According to our Start/Sit tool, fantasy owners that own both Williams and Herbert are starting Herbert 22% of the time to just 13% taking Williams as the starter. Owners of Williams and Cook are also against Williams, with Cook starting nearly 29% of the time and Williams starting about 22% of the time. The numbers show it's basically a toss up between starting Herbert or Cook, with each around 23% starter.
Our week 1 running back projections tell a bit of a different story. Herbert is the highest-rated of the trio, at 10 projected points. Williams is rated second of the three with nine points, and Cook comes in third at eight points.
Herbert is the Recommended Start
When picking between these three backs, I like the matchup for Herbert the best, and would follow our projections in starting him over Williams or Cook.
If your two backs are Cook and Williams, it’s a tougher choice. Williams has the better path to more carries, but he’s also facing the tougher of the two defenses. For that reason, I’d side with most owners and go against the week 1 projections by taking Cook over Williams.
Given their touch matchups, I’d want to stay away from starting Williams or Cook in my flex spot, as you likely have a more favorable matchup with another player.
