Commanders Fantasy Outlook for Week 5: Should You Start Sam Howell, Brian Robinson, Terry McLaurin, Jahan Dotson, Curtis Samuel, Logan Thomas and More
The Washington Commanders are losers of two straight, but definitely showed they can compete with good teams while taking the Philadelphia Eagles to overtime in week 4. The Commanders will match up with the Chicago Bears to open the fifth week of the NFL season, and there’s several players on the roster that are strong fantasy options.
Let’s dive into a breakdown of the team’s quarterback, running backs, wide receivers, tight end, defense and kicker.
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Sam Howell Fantasy Outlook
Howell has been an up-and-down performer to kick off the season. He’s thrown for at least 200 yards and one touchdown in three of the four contests, but also had a week where he was held under 200 yards, with no touchdowns and four interceptions. Howell has rushed for 82 yards and a touchdown on 11 carries so far.
Against the Eagles in week 4, Howell was pretty good, with 290 passing yards and a touchdown on 29-of-41 passing. He rushed for an additional 40 yards on six attempts.
The biggest problem facing Howell all season has been his protection. He was sacked five times against Philly, and has already been taken down 24 times, which is the league high. There’s no offensive linemen on the injury report for Thursday. The Bears, on the other hand, are down two defensive backs, with another questionable.
This sets up as a great matchup for most of the Commanders’ offensive players, including Howell. Chicago is the second-worst defense so far when it comes to slowing opposing quarterbacks. They are allowing an average of 22 fantasy points a contest.
Howell is ranked 11th among quarterbacks in our week 5 projections.
Brian Robinson, Antonio Gibson Fantasy Outlook
Robinson and Gibson have dominated the snaps for the Commanders’ backfield. Robinson is the clear No. 1 guy though, with 66 touches to just 21 for Gibson.
Robinson has rushed for 261 yards and three touchdowns on 61 carries, while catching five passes for 55 yards and another score.
Gibson has rushed for 54 yards on 13 carries and has eight catches for 68 yards. He’s yet to score.
I bring up both backs because the Bears’ defense has struggled mightily against running backs too. They are again second worst in the league, allowing an average of 33 points a contest. Backs have excelled as ball carriers and receivers.
Robinson is the 14th-ranked back in our projections, while Gibson is 44th.
Terry McLaurin, Jahan Dotson, Curtis Samuel Fantasy Outlook
Washington’s wideouts have all enjoyed their moments through the first month of the season.
McLaurin leads the way with 21 receptions on 26 targets, going for 212 yards and a touchdown. He has yet to be targeted in the red zone, which is both surprising and alarming to fantasy owners.
Samuel is second on the team in receiving yards (178). He hasn’t caught a touchdown on his 17 receptions. One of his 20 overall targets came in the red zone. Samuel also has attempted three runs for 20 yards and a touchdown.
Dotson got in the end zone for the first time in week 4. He now has 14 catches on 25 targets, going for 110 receiving yards. After seeing his targets shrink from seven to five to four from weeks 1-3, he got targeted nine times in week 4.
The Bears’ defense has been slightly below average when it comes to slowing opposing receivers, allowing an average of 36 fantasy points.
Logan Thomas Fantasy Outlook
Thomas returned to the lineup in week 4 after dealing with a concussion. He put up 41 receiving yards on three catches, which was similar to his four-catch, 43-yard performance in week 1. Thomas only had 22 yards on two catches in week 2, but did score that week.
Thomas has been targeted 14 times across the three games he’s played in, although eight of those came back in week 1. He’s been on the field a bunch and already has two red zone targets.
The Bears’ defense is also slightly below average in stopping opposing tight ends, so it’s a pretty favorable matchup for Thomas. Chicago has allowed an average of 11 fantasy points a game to tight ends.
Thomas is the 18th-ranked tight end for the upcoming week.
Commanders’ Defense Fantasy Outlook
The Commanders’ defense has been below average in most statistics to start the season. Washington has allowed an average of 352.5 yards a game, with 230 coming through the air and 122.5 on the ground.
Washington opponents are averaging 30 points a game, the fourth-highest mark in the league so far. The Commanders are in the top half of the league with 13 sacks. The unit has taken the ball away five times and is going up against a Bears’ offense that’s turned the ball over eight times.
As you can probably sense, this is a favorable matchup for the Commanders’ defense, and our projections follow suit, with Washington the fourth-ranked unit for week 5.
Joey Slye Fantasy Outlook
Slye has been pretty busy across the first four games, with eight field goal attempts and nine extra point attempts. Slye has made six field goals and all nine extra points.
Slye’s field goal misses have come from over 40 yards.
Slye is not inside our top 26 at the position for the upcoming week. He could get a fair amount of scoring chances, as it’s expected to be a low-scoring and somewhat sloppy game.
Who to Start in Week 5
Playing against the Bears’ defense has become one of those defenses that fantasy owners love their players going against. That’s exactly the case this week with several Commanders.
Howell is a great streaming option against the Bears, and I’d start him if you don’t have any of the quarterbacks ranked ahead of him in the projections. If he can take care of the ball, he has the chance to finish as one of the best-scoring QBs this week.
Robinson is a must start for me this week against the Bears. I think he has a really good chance of outproducing his projections and possibly top 100 rushing yards for the first time this season. Gibson is a sneaky good play, even in a backup role. I’d probably avoid starting him unless you absolutely have no other options, but if you must start him, I think he has a chance to finish as a top 30 back this week.
I’m not as confident in the Washington receivers as I am with the quarterback and running backs. I’d roll with McLaurin as the top option of the trio Washington has. It’s a coin flip for me between Dotson and Samuel, and in those cases, I try to avoid starting either guy. Both will be involved, but I don’t think they’ll put up huge numbers unless they score.
At a position lacking a lot of for sure starters, I think Thomas is a pretty good option for the week. I’d take him over several guys directly in front of him in our projections, and I also like his chances of scoring a short touchdown.
I absolutely love the Commanders’ defense as a streaming option this week. They’ve been a bit below average, but are taking on a Bears’ offense that’s struggled mightily in all but one week. With as turnover prone as the Bears are, Washington might finish as the top-scoring defense in week 5.
As our projections might suggest, I don’t think it makes much sense to add Slye to your roster. He’ll likely get a handful of kicks, but your current kicker option is probably the safer one.
