Wild Card Weekend DFS Report
A look at the best NFL DFS plays for Wild Card Weekend
Now that we've entered Wild Card Weekend and are only dealing with six games, we have to get a little more locked-in with what we're doing with our DFS lineups. There aren't nearly as many player options as we've become accustomed to, and the chalky players are going to be even more chalky that usual.
As we look at our cash game lineups in 50/50s and H2Hs, it will be extremely important to figure which chalky players we have to roster (or not roster), while figuring out how to differentiate ourselves from the crowd. Tournaments are a similar concept, but we're going to have to get a little more creative as the ways to differentiate ourselves in larger formats are fewer and far between than during the regular season.
Whether you're playing on DraftKings, FanDuel, or elsewhere, the main concept is the same. We're trying to get the most value for what we spend on each player, while targeting high floors in cash games and upside in tournaments. Let's go position-by-position and take a look at some of the players that stand out this week.
Quarterback
Weather looks like it might take Patrick Mahomes, Josh Allen, and Tua Tagovailoa off the table for us. And Jalen Hurts is dealing with a worrisome finger injury. That leaves Dak Prescott is the top play if you're looking to spend up, but I think you can get better value elsewhere. I'll mainly be rolling with Joe Flacco and Matthew Stafford in cash games as both have a ton of upside and come at a lower cost. Jared Goff is another lower-cost option for cash games, but I'm a little lower on him.
Baker Mayfield against a bad Eagles pass defense is an interesting option for tournaments, and Jordan Love has a ton of upside against the Cowboys. Both are a little too risky for me in cash games, but I think you can build a nice stack around both if you're looking for tournament upside. I'm not against C.J. Stroud for tournaments either as I don't think he'll be in a ton of lineups, but I'd prefer to stay away from that Browns defense.
Top cash game plays: Joe Flacco, Matthew Stafford, Jared Goff
Top tournament plays: Baker Mayfield, Jordan Love, C.J. Stroud
Running Back
I'm always trying to maximize touches at running back, so Kyren Williams, Rachaad White, and Isiah Pacheco (in that order) stand out as the guys who stand to touch the ball the most. Williams is more or less a lock for me in cash games and I'll likely try to jam in at least one of those other two depending on the rest of my lineup. Things get a little trickier from there, but one of Tony Pollard, Aaron Jones, or James Cook will likely be in a lot of my cash lineups. All three have a clear pathway to 15+ touches this week.
Jahmyr Gibbs and De'Von Achane are always fun high-upside plays, but they're a little more volatile and will probably be in more of my tournament lineups than cash game lineups (though they're fine for both). Jerome Ford is a lower-cost option who should see 12-15 touches, while Najee Harris is coming off a huge-carry game and might be a nice way to have a player with lower ownership.
All in all, there aren't a ton of dart-throw quarterbacks this week and my player pool is going to be relatively limited at the position.
Top cash game plays: Kyren Williams, Rachaad White, Tony Pollard
Top tournament plays: Jahmyr Gibbs, De'Vone Achane, Aaron Jones
Wide Receiver
Wide receiver is tricky because the weather and looming wind in Buffalo and Kansas City. Call me crazy, but in trying to minimize risk, I'm going to take most Bills/Chiefs/Steelers/Dolphins pass catchers out of my player pool this weekend. I'm not saying they're DFS kryptonite, but I think we're introducing too much risk if the weather forecasts are right. I'm also trying to avoid injured guys, so that takes the Eagles receivers off my list as well.
As such, I'm really looking at guys who have a pretty clear path to double-digit targets in good weather/domes. Amari Cooper, Amon-Ra St. Brown, Puka Nacua, Cooper Kupp, CeeDee Lamb, and Mike Evans all jump out to me in that regard. All studs that fit the criteria I'm looking for. Both in cash games and otherwise.
But since we can't only target expensive guys, I think we can find a little cost-relief witih players who have a chance to see 5-8 (maybe more?) targets in Jayden Reed, , Romeo Doubs, Demarcus Robinson, Brandin Cooks, Elijah Moore, and maybe even Jameson Williams.
Guys like Khalil Shakir, Justin Watson, and David Bell are tempting, but I'd rather save them for tournaments because of their bust potential.
Top cash game plays: Amon-Ra St. Brown, Amari Cooper, CeeDee Lamb, Puka Nacua, Demarcus Robinson, Brandin Cooks
Top tournament plays: Mike Evans, Cooper Kupp, Tyreek Hill, Khalil Shakir, Jameson Williams, George Pickens
Tight End
I'm trying to get a little more targeted at tight end and am mostly looking at David Njoku, Jake Ferguson, and Dalton Schultz as guys who look like they have the safest path to high usage -- while not dealing with weather. Travis Kelce is always interesting and Dalton Kincaid has a ton of upside, but both could be playing in a snow/cold/windstorm, so there's some room for error there.
Top cash game plays: David Njoku, Jake Ferguson, Dalton Schultz
Top tournament plays: Travis Kelce, Dalton Kincaid, Cade Otton
Defense/Special Teams
I never sweat this spot too much and just try to find the cheapest option that doesn't look like they'll get blown out -- preferably a home time. If we're looking at totals, the Chiefs/Dolphins and Bills/Steelers games are the ones to target, and the Chiefs at home against a Florida team playing in sub-zero weather stands out a lot.
And since the Chiefs will likely be relatively chalky, you can get a little different by using either Tampa Bay or Houston.
