Divisional Round Quarterback Start/Sit: Lamar Jackson, Patrick Mahomes, C.J. Stroud and More

I've heard the Divisional Round called the best weekend of playoff football: We still get four games, but the bottom teams get knocked off in the Wild Card Round, so there are better matchups. Time will tell if that holds true this season, but last week only had one close game, the 24-23 Lions victory over the Rams.

We can definitely hope for better games, and we have the quarterbacks needed to make magic happen. I separated the players into "Start" and "Sit" categories, but I can see an argument for any of them to be started in playoff fantasy or DFS. It's a good week for quarterbacks, and maybe a chance to go cheap and spend on skill players. I've noted a few DFS plays I like.

So, let's run through the eight starting QBs in action during the second week of the playoffs. Players are listed in the order I rank them, and you can see the full list at the bottom of the page. Most fantasy stats and rankings from the season are from Fantasy Pros. Check out our FantasySP projections and DFS Optimizer to help make tough decisions.

 

Start

Lamar Jackson, Baltimore Ravens

Opponent: Houston Texans

Pass Yards Allowed Per Game: 235.9 (24th)

Pass Yards Allowed Per Attempt: 7.0 (27th)

Jackson was a top-10 QB 10 times in 16 games, finishing below 20th only twice. He finished as QB4. I think we get the picture, right? Jackson is a great fantasy option.

Houston’s season-long numbers aren’t good, but they have been better recently against the pass. After allowing Zach Wilson to throw for 300 yards in Week 14, Will Levis, Ryan Tannehill and Gardner Minshew each failed to hit 200. Oh, and Joe Flacco threw for 300 yards twice, including last week in the Wild Card Round.

While it was a long time ago, these teams matched in up Week 1, and Jackson was largely ineffective. Baltimore’s defense dominated in a 25-9 win, and the quarterback finished with 169 passing yards, no touchdowns, one interception and 38 rushing yards.

His team won, but Jackson didn’t do much more than avoid big mistakes. There have been games in which that formula has worked, but every game from here on out is the biggest game of the year. I assume the likely MVP will be a big part of the reason his team wins (or loses).

Jackson is a player to start, but his high cost in DFS means there is probably better value elsewhere.

 

Josh Allen, Buffalo Bills

Opponent: Kansas City Chiefs

Pass Yards Allowed Per Game: 177.2 (4th)

Pass Yards Allowed Per Attempt: 5.4 (3rd)

Allen finished the season as fantasy QB1, and it wasn’t really close. His 15 rushing touchdowns tied Jalen Hurts for most in the league among quarterbacks; no other passer had more than six. That rushing production gives Allen a baseline of “above-average fantasy quarterback.”

Nothing changed last week in the playoffs: Allen ran eight times for 74 yards and a touchdown, with the score coming from 52 yards out. He won’t get a 50-yard run every week, but the volume with which he runs and his nose for the end zone make Allen a top fantasy option.

He faces one of the toughest defenses in the league this week when the Chiefs come to town. The Bills did enough on the ground to control the game last week, but Allen threw for just 203 yards on 30 attempts (with three touchdowns).

Kansas City didn’t allow a 300-yard passer all season; Tua Tagovailoa threw for just 199 yards last week. It’s going to be cold again Sunday night, conditions that KC thrived in against Miami.

Allen’s floor makes him a top option, but his ceiling is likely capped by the tough matchup. In Kansas City in Week 13, Allen threw for 233 yards with one touchdown and one interception. His fantasy day was, of course, saved by 32 rushing yards and a touchdown.

It’s likely he will approximate that performance in the Divisional Round. Like Jackson, Allen is a safe option with a high DFS price that doesn’t present a lot of value.

 

Baker Mayfield, Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Opponent: Detroit Lions

Pass Yards Allowed Per Game: 253.4 (30th)

Pass Yards Allowed Per Attempt: 7.3 (30th)

I wanted to bump Mayfield above Allen (and maybe put Love and Purdy up there, also), but Allen's running ability is too good to ignore. Instead, I'll give Mayfield the mantle of "Most Likely to Overachieve."

Mayfield threw for 337 yards and three touchdowns against Philly; now he gets a great matchup against a Detroit team near the bottom of the league against the pass. Tampa will be underdogs again in the Divisional Round, but this time on the road and against an opponent truly better than them.

I see a situation in which Detroit controls the game and Mayfield must throw a lot to catch up. That would mean big numbers for Baker. I see this as the best value play of the week in DFS. The Lions are very good, but they don’t stop the pass.

Matthew Stafford had 367 yards against Detroit last week; now Mike Evans and company are coming to town for their own feast. Start Mayfield.

 

Jordan Love, Green Bay Packers

Opponent: San Francisco 49ers

Pass Yards Allowed Per Game: 214.2 (13th)

Pass Yards Allowed Per Attempt: 5.9 (5th)

I always assume good pass defenses are going to slow all but the best quarterbacks. With that logic, I saw Love struggling against Dallas.

Instead, he gained 272 yards on just 21 attempts and added three touchdowns. I’ve underestimated Love, expecting him to come back to Earth. He was outside the top 20 quarterbacks only twice this season and registered 11 weeks as a top-12 QB.

So, how do we value him against another top defensive unit? I can’t bet against Love again (that has to be a song, right?). I see this as a high-scoring game with both quarterbacks racking up stats. That would put Love in position to be among the top quarterbacks of the week again.

Love is a good value play with a lower DFS cost than guys like Allen and Jackson.

 

Brock Purdy, San Francisco 49ers

Opponent: Green Bay Packers

Pass Yards Allowed Per Game: 216.8 (14th)

Pass Yards Allowed Per Attempt: 6.7 (20th)

There’s no reason to get into the argument of Purdy’s “value” versus that of his offensive ecosystem. In fantasy terms, he is a safe player who regularly performs at a top level.

Purdy was a top-10 quarterback in seven of the 16 weeks he played and in the top 15 four more times. He was fifth in passing yards and third in touchdowns despite sitting out Week 18. The only thing Purdy lacks is rushing production, with just 144 yards and two touchdowns on the ground.

Green Bay was near league average against the pass. Dak Prescott went over 400 yards against them last week, but he threw 60 times (!!!!) as Dallas was down and trying to catch up virtually the entire game.

If the game plays out as expected, the 49ers will handle their business and put up points. That will mean a good day for Purdy, putting him among the top half of active quarterbacks. I see an upside, but it could also be a day where San Francisco has control early and doesn't have to do a lot of throwing. I like Purdy as a start, but he's not the safest option.

 

Sit

Patrick Mahomes, Kansas City Chiefs

Opponent: Buffalo Bills

Pass Yards Allowed Per Game: 197.8 (7th)

Pass Yards Allowed Per Attempt: 6.1 (6th)

Mahomes was able to produce enough in frigid conditions to lead his team comfortably to victory. It took him 41 attempts to reach 262 yards, but it’s about raw stats, not efficiency. Kansas City needs Mahomes to throw the ball to have a chance to win.

His two rushes went for 41 yards in the Wild Card Game, a nice boost to his fantasy score. Mahomes set a career high with 389 yards on the ground, though he failed to get into the end zone.

Rashee Rice and Travis Kelce combined for 15 catches and 201 yards last week, a nice core of production. If one more receiver and/or running back can make a few plays alongside those two, Mahomes can reach at least the same level as last week.

Buffalo’s tough defense won’t help matters, though. They have overcome a few major injuries to sustain a top-10 defense that will make it tough on a struggling Chiefs passing game. I see Mahomes in the middle this week and more likely to fall below the divide than above it.

 

Jared Goff, Detroit Lions

Opponent: Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Pass Yards Allowed Per Game: 248.1 (27th)

Pass Yards Allowed Per Attempt: 6.9 (25th)

While Goff battles some of the same naysayers as Purdy, it’s hard to argue with the results. He was a top-10 fantasy quarterback for the second straight year and was consistent if not always spectacular. He had six top-10 finishes and four more in the top 16. He never finished lower than 25th.

While the matchup looks good by the metrics listed above, there has been a lot made about Goff’s struggles with pressure. Tampa was able to get to Jalen Hurts with blitzes, and the same outcome would spell trouble for Goff.

I’m banking on Detroit’s great offensive line and running game controlling things to slow down the pass rush and Goff operating efficiently. Goff is a middling option this week but could do some damage if given time.

 

C.J. Stroud, Houston Texans

Opponent: Baltimore Ravens

Pass Yards Allowed Per Game: 191.9 (5th)

Pass Yards Allowed Per Attempt: 5.1 (1st)

Stroud has been outstanding as a rookie. In fantasy terms, he became a weekly starter and nearly matchup-proof. That’s what this games comes down to: Can Stroud produce against maybe the best defense in the league?

He did last week. I projected him to struggle somewhat against Cleveland’s top defensive unit, but the rookie threw for 274 yards and three touchdowns on only 21 attempts. That’s unfathomably good given the circumstances.

I’m going back to the well, though. I thought Baltimore’s defense was the best in the league, and they could stifle Houston like they did in the opener and win a low-scoring game. It’s a dangerous bet after what we just saw, but I’m down on Stroud this week.

 

Divisional Round Quarterback Rankings

1. Lamar Jackson

2. Josh Allen

3. Baker Mayfield

4. Jordan Love

5. Brock Purdy

6. Patrick Mahomes

7. Jared Goff

8. C.J. Stroud