Conference Championship Game Quarterback Start/Sit: Lamar Jackson, Brock Purdy, Patrick Mahomes and Jared Goff

When we get this deep into the playoffs, there aren’t many fantasy options left to choose from. Most people are playing only DFS by this point, and I will factor that into this week’s player rankings. 

It’s always about luck when it comes to fantasy football, but that’s even more true when there are only four quarterbacks to choose from. All these QBs have close to the same DFS value, so it will be more about who can perform than the best value.

Let’s run through the four quarterbacks in action this week and break down their opponent and what to expect in fantasy terms. Passing yards allowed per game and per attempt are from Team Rankings. Quarterbacks are listed in the order I have them ranked, and the full list is at the bottom of the page. Check out our FantasySP player projections to help you make tough calls.

 

Lamar Jackson, Baltimore Ravens

Opponent: Kansas City Chiefs

Passing yards per game allowed: 176.5 (4th)

Passing yards per attempt allowed: 5.4 (3rd)

Jackson was QB4 in fantasy this year despite sitting out Week 18. He is the likely MVP. He had over 150 more rushing yards than any other quarterback. Would you like more?

This isn’t about Jackson as much as the Kansas City defense. Jackson is the top fantasy option of the week, but his ability to throw will be severely limited by the Chiefs, one of the top pass defenses in the league.

Kansas City is more vulnerable against the run, and that will be where Jackson likely does most of his damage, a boon for his fantasy value. Kansas City faced the third-most rush attempts from quarterbacks and allowed the 10th-most yards.

Their per-rush rate is closer to the league average. While most running backs have similar skill sets, quarterbacks vary greatly, so it helps to look at similar quarterbacks to Jackson in terms of rushing production.

• In Week 3, the Chiefs dominated the Bears 41-10. Justin Fields threw for only 99 yards, and he ran 11 times for 47 yards.
• Philadelphia outscored the Chiefs 14-0 in the second half to walk out of KC with a 21-17 win. Jalen Hurts had 150 passing yards and 32 rushing yards on nine non-kneel attempts. He got into the end zone twice on the ground, once with a tush push.
• Kansas City faced the Bills twice. Week 14 saw Buffalo win 20-17 while Josh Allen threw for 233 yards and ran for 34 yards on eight attempts (excluding kneels) and a touchdown. The Chiefs got their revenge in the playoffs last week, and while Allen threw for only 186 yards, he ran 12 times for 72 yards and two touchdowns.

Mixed results, but the Chiefs generally shut down the pass game and allowed some production on the ground. A similar day is likely in store. Jackson finishing with something like 180 passing yards, 50 rushing yards, and two total touchdowns (either two rushing or one passing and one rushing) would equal out to a fantasy score in the low 20s without turnovers.

If he produces more, either through the air or on the ground, that will make for a great fantasy day. Jackson is the top fantasy quarterback on Conference Championship weekend.

 

Brock Purdy, San Francisco 49ers

Opponent: Detroit Lions

Passing yards per game allowed: 247.4 (27th)

Passing yards per attempt allowed: 7.2 (30th)

Jackson is first because no other player listed here can come close to matching his running ability. When it comes to Purdy, though, he is the only guy with a truly good matchup against his respective pass defense. 

You can see from the numbers above that the Lions were bottom-six in yards per game and attempt allowed. That hasn’t changed in the playoffs, either.

In the Wild Card Round, Matthew Stafford threw for 367 yards, two touchdowns and no interceptions. Baker Mayfield last weekend hit 349 and three touchdowns, though he did throw two interceptions.

The Lions haven’t stopped the pass all season, and now they face one of the most efficient passers and offenses in the league. Purdy put up MVP-level numbers this season.

The biggest question is the status of wide receiver Deebo Samuel. Much was made of Purdy’s struggles this season when both Samuel and left tackle Trent Williams were out. In the Divisional Round last week, Samuel missed most of the game and had just two catches for 24 yards. Purdy struggled at times, averaging just 6.5 yards per attempt, and labored through a late comeback.

With or without Samuel, Purdy should be able to put up stats against the Lions. If the star receiver is out, though, a win might be much tougher to come by for the 49ers.

Either way, Purdy is the best DFS value quarterback, with a high floor but not as high of a ceiling as Jackson.

 

Patrick Mahomes, Kansas City Chiefs

Opponent: Baltimore Ravens

Passing yards per game allowed: 191.9 (6th)

Passing yards per attempt allowed: 5.1 (1st)

Baltimore’s defense might be the best in the league. Kansas City’s own defense has something to say about that, but the Ravens have been dominating teams all season long. They led the league in total DVOA and defensive DVOA.

Mahomes had his worst season by yards per attempt, interceptions, quarterback rating and QBR. It was his second-worst season in passing yards, touchdowns and sacks taken.

It’s obvious that his receivers have let him down, but reality is reality. Fantasy is about production, not what-ifs.

C.J. Stroud only had 175 yards last week against Baltimore. Mahomes averaged around 260 yards per game this season. FanDuel has his prop number at 243.5 (I’m feeling the under on that one).

I’m expecting a low-scoring game, and Mahomes won’t have the running ability to raise his number the way Jackson will. While the Chiefs could win an ugly game, I don’t see many scenarios in which Mahomes goes off for a vintage day.

 

Jared Goff, Detroit Lions

Opponent: San Francisco 49ers

Passing yards per game allowed: 214.2 (14th)

Passing yards per attempt allowed: 5.9 (5th)

Anyone doubting the Lions at this point, what more do they need to do? Their style of winning isn’t fluky; they run through teams and move efficiently through the air. The defense isn’t perfect, as we mentioned above, but guys like Aidan Hutchinson and Brian Branch make impact plays.

Goff is similar to Purdy in that his success is seen as a product of his surroundings while his failures are pointed to as evidence that he’s not good enough. 

Goff went to the Super Bowl! But he was carried by Sean McVay. Goff led another team to the Conference Championship Game! But the running game and offensive line carry most of the load. I’m done doubting Goff the same way I am Purdy.

The San Francisco defense won’t be fun to face. Their yards-against numbers aren’t quite as gaudy as the Chiefs and Ravens, but they have superstars at all three levels. While allowing a league-average number of yards per game, San Francisco faced the third-most pass attempts per game. Teams were throwing to catch up.

Goff has Amon-Ra St. Brown, Sam LaPorta and Jahmyr Gibbs as his own three-level attack and one of the best offensive lines in the league. The situation around Goff is cushy, but that gives him more fantasy value than most other passers during the regular season.

Goff is unlikely to have a big performance in this one. He has a decent floor, but the ceiling isn’t there. Mahomes and Goff are at the same level, but I’ll give the best quarterback in the world the slight advantage.

 

Conference Championship Quarterback Rankings

1. Lamar Jackson

2. Brock Purdy

3. Patrick Mahomes

4. Jared Goff