NFL Teams Likely to Increase Their Super Bowl Odds this Offseason: Lions, Texans, Bears and More

Free agency is about to begin, meaning the way we see several teams will soon change, for better and worse. Current Super Bowl odds show the usual suspects as the favorites: the 49ers, Chiefs and Ravens are the teams at less than +1000, with the Bills and Lions not far off.

When players start changing teams, odds will swing with those moves. Smart bettors can see what’s about to happen and make a Super Bowl or division winning bet on a team before they make the big change, securing a better output if that team wins.

I wanted to look at current odds and see who could improve noticeably over free agency and the draft due to expected upgrades. The teams below all have an avenue to improve, however unlikely a playoff run may be.

Listed odds are from BetMGM.

Detroit Lions (+1200)

Detroit has ascended quickly as they have added talent and coalesced under a good coaching staff. Most of their best players are on rookie contracts, too, meaning they have room to add impact veterans.

Spotrac says the Lions currently have the sixth-most cap space, with over $54 million free. Not many positions need upgrades, but the defense was the unit lacking in their run to the NFC Championship Game.

A big-time pass rusher opposite Aidan Hutchinson, like Danielle Hunter, would make Detroit scary up front. Swinging a trade for franchise-tagged cornerback L'Jarius Sneed would possibly be the biggest upgrade they could make to any position.

With such a deep roster, Detroit can focus on a few weaknesses and target impact players for those spots. The Lions could have better odds than Baltimore (+900) by the end of the offseason.

Houston Texans (+2500)

Houston already took care of the most important part, finding their franchise quarterback last year in the draft. Add a star pass rusher in Will Anderson Jr. and a good coaching staff, and the Texans are on the way up with multiple spots still to improve.

The franchise has over $70 million in cap space, and the first order of business will likely be helping their young passer. C.J. Stroud became a star in his rookie season, and the team surely thinks they have their guy for the next 15 years.

Dalton Schultz was already re-signed at tight end, a good move with a player Stroud gelled with last season. Nico Collins and Tank Dell both had good 2023 seasons and will be expected to make up the pass-catching core.

A superstar addition, like Tee Higgins (currently franchised by Cincinnati), would make the offense devastating, and many have offered the idea that upgrading the running back spot could make the biggest difference, with someone like Saquon Barkley.

I hate big running back contracts, especially with guys that can’t stay healthy. The offensive line and pass catchers will be so much more important than throwing money at running back, where they can easily find contributors.

If the Texans bring in one or more big players (even on defense), they will be in position to control their division and contend in the playoffs.

Chicago Bears (+4000)

What if Caleb Williams really is the superstar as which he has been promised? Chicago has a good foundation and the ability to add to it, holding the ninth overall pick and over $57 million in cap space.

If they decide to draft Williams and trade Justin Fields, the potential upgrade could be enough to put the Bears near the top of the conference. That’s the level of prospect Williams is seen as.

D.J. Moore, Cole Kmet, a good offensive line and one more good pass catcher might be the best core among the QB-needy teams, depending on how you feel about Atlanta’s young players.

This bet is that a good team injected with star talent at the quarterback position will take off and become instant contenders. Russell Wilson joining the Seahawks as a rookie is a good example to compare.

It’s a lot to put on a young player, but we’ve seen it happen before.

Atlanta Falcons (+5000)

Speaking of Atlanta, they have a recent first-round pick at running back, wide receiver and tight end, as well as three first rounders and a second-round pick on the offensive line. That core might be better than Chicago’s.

In a weak division, a major upgrade at quarterback could make this team a near lock for the playoffs, greatly improving their Super Bowl odds. If the young skill players are able to improve with, say, Kirk Cousins at the helm, this will be a different team.

With as much talk as there is around Atlanta upgrading at quarterback, it seems likely that will happen. At that time, their odds will change, and the degree of that change will depend on who they acquire.

Atlanta has the outline of a team primed to make a big jump, especially to a playoff regular.

Pittsburgh Steelers (+8000)

The Steelers follow the same trend as the Falcons, just with more star talent on the defensive side of the ball rather than on offense. Diontae Johnson and George Pickens are both exciting receivers, with Johnson blossoming and Pickens ready to break out with a good quarterback.

Pittsburgh is a good organization and will generally get talent on the offensive line, which was achieved last year with the first-round pick of tackle Broderick Jones. The Steelers have most of the roster solidified but are brought down by production at the quarterback position.

They will be looking at the same players as the Falcons, with Fields, Cousins and Wilson among the hot names. The player they acquire will determine the ceiling the team can reach in 2024.

New England Patriots and Washington Commanders (+15000)

These two teams are highly unlikely to compete, as evidenced by their Super Bowl odds, but both have those dreams riding on an upgrade at quarterback. Drake Maye and Jayden Daniels are widely seen as the likely second and third picks, joining the Commanders and Patriots in some permutation.

If one of these guys steps in and hits immediate stardom, like Stroud did last season, they could take a team seen as moribund and drag them to the brink of contention; Houston had the second-worst record in the league in 2022 before winning the division last season.

It’s highly, highly unlikely, but this is a big number for teams that will possibly add high-level passers at the top of the draft.