Fantasy Football Late-Round Sleepers and Fliers: J.J. McCarthy, Michael Wilson, Evan Hull and Pat Freiermuth

A good late-round sleeper in your fantasy football draft can be the difference between mediocre and great teams.

Can it win your league? Maybe. Puka Nakua and Kyren Williams had an average draft position (ADP) of 125 last year in half PPR. Nico Collins, Brock Purdy and Sam LaPorta were all drafted at 139 or later. A more important way of looking at it is putting yourself in a position to draft upside players. 

What do I mean by that? Well, if you're still looking for a starter in Round 11, maybe you haven't drafted a tight end or waited too long for a quarterback. You may have taken a "safer" quarterback like Aaron Rodgers (ADP 141) instead of the potential of Purdy (ADP 145). Or a Dalton Schultz (ADP 148) versus Sam LaPorta (ADP 152).

With the benefit of hindsight, these picks seem obvious. But did you make them last year?

I'd start this conversation by saying your league should have enough roster spots to plumb these depths. A shallow league is just not as fun or interesting. At a minimum, every redraft league should start 1 QB, 2 RB, 3 WR, 1 TE and 1 flex and have 7 bench sports. That's 15 rounds. It's up to you if you want kickers or team defenses (I'm an IDP guy). 

With that in mind, I will provide my late-round deep sleepers and fliers, and they have to carry a half PPR ADP from Round 11 or later (pick No. 121 or later).

J.J. McCarthy, QB, Minnesota Vikings

In a 12-team redraft league, I won't be carrying a backup quarterback. I'd rather use that roster spot on another running back, wide receiver, or tight end unless I whiff on the position and end up with a QB starter outside the top 12. If I have an elite QB1, they're my guy all year, and I'll live with the injury risk.

When I roster backup quarterbacks, I focus on offenses with weapons. I'd rather have Matthew Stafford or Aaron Rodgers available in the Round 11 range, but we're looking at least one round deeper.

So I'm waiting until Round 14 by taking McCarthy (ADP 162). He's got a pretty good situation around him with Justin Jefferson, Jordan Addison and T.J. Hockenson. Minnesota also has an above-average offensive line, which is good but not great and certainly not bad.

McCarthy doesn't have huge upside, but a good offense can elevate a young player.

Evan Hull, RB, Indianapolis Colts

There are a ton of backup running backs in the pick 133+ range. Kendre Miller, Ty Chandler, MarShawn Lloyd, Tyler Allgeier, Baelon Allen and the list goes on.

However, there is an elite RB1 that doesn't have a backup within the top 250: Jonathan Taylor's top backup Evan Hull (ADP 273). You could also pound the table for Tyler Goodson (ADP 331), but we'll see which back takes command of this spot.

The Colts have a top-tier offensive line, and we saw Zack Moss be productive here last year. You could argue Hull could have had a ton of success if it weren't for his Week 1 injury that derailed his first season.

If you believe Moss is that great, that's all well and good. But I'll take my chances on a near-unknown like Hull (or Goodson), considering their rock-bottom price point on draft day.

We don't know what this offense will be like since Anthony Richardson didn't play much, but I imagine they continue to play conservatively and lean on the run. Indianapolis finished 10th last year in rushing yards per game and 11th in rushing attempts.

Hull is viewed as a three-down back, and I'm interpreting the Colts allowing Moss to leave via free agency (for not much money) as an endorsement for the second-year back out of Northwestern.

Michael Wilson, WR, Arizona Cardinals

With the addition of Marvin Harrison Jr., all eyes are on him, and rightly so. But of an underwhelming receiver room, Wilson did have his good moments last year. It's the consistency that needs to improve.

In the season's final two weeks, he finished as a borderline WR2 (WR22 & WR25) with a combined 10 receptions for 130 yards and a touchdown. He had a coming-out party in Week 4 against the 49ers when he was the WR6 with a 7/76/2 slash line.

Although I'm not a huge fan of Kyler Murray, Wilson is the clear WR2 in Arizona and is going after a ton of the team's third receiver in fantasy drafts. And if you believe in Murray, the passing offense won't be limited to Harrison and Trey McBride. 

According to Player Profiler, Wilson has some impressive advanced stats (+15.3 Production Premium, fifth overall and +31.2 Target Premium, sixth overall), which tells me there's something special about his game that we haven't seen come to full fruition yet.

Pat Freiermuth, TE, Pittsburgh Steelers

After two good seasons to start his career, Freiermuth took a big step back in 2023 by finishing as the TE27 by fantasy points per game. It also didn't help that he missed more than a month from Weeks 6 to 11.

I don't need a sexy tight end who's a media darling or a fan favorite among fantasy analysts. I need a guy who is a consistent red-zone option; that's where this position pulls its weight. Freiermuth did that in his rookie year with seven touchdowns, and despite only scoring two TDs in 2022, his yardage ticked up to pick up the slack.

As the 16th TE off the board (ADP 135), you can roster him as your No. 2 TE. If I hit on an elite tight end like Travis Kelce or Mark Andrews, I'll wait a bit longer for a backup TE. So ideally, I'm drafting back-to-back late tight ends like Freiermuth and Luke Musgrave.