Week 16 Fantasy Football Tight End Start/Sit: Trey McBride, Jonnu Smith, Jake Ferguson and More
Three tight ends to start and three to sit in Week 16 of the NFL season.
Fantasy semi-final week is a stressful time. Every decision seems like the most important part of your fantasy season, as a wrong choice could make the past four months seem like a waste. At a position like tight end, where consistent production is hard to come by, those decisions come up as often as any other.
Let’s look at three tight ends to start and three to sit in Week 16. I used stats from NFL.com and our FantasySP defensive fantasy rankings to help identify the best and worst matchups. I will reference those numbers often.
Start
Jake Ferguson, Dallas Cowboys vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Ferguson is averaging the least yards per reception (8.8) of his career and hasn’t scored a touchdown. He’s averaging around four catches and 38.5 yards per game. A big part of the low production is the loss of his top quarterback while also missing four games of his own, and Ferguson has only hit 50 yards three times in 11 games.
The Bucs are right in the middle in yards allowed per pass attempt, but they have given up the fifth-most fantasy points per game to tight ends. This is a team on the way to the playoffs mostly built upon their offensive exploits. Tampa has a few stars on D but not the strongest unit.
Ferguson is a good streaming option this week. His lack of production combined with a backup quarterback lowers Ferguson’s floor, but the matchup is in his favor to put up some numbers.
Trey McBride, Arizona Cardinals @ Carolina Panthers
McBride has one of the nicest tight end matchups of the week: Carolina has allowed the seventh-most yards per pass attempt and sixth-most fantasy points per game to the position. There won’t be many better opportunities for success.
The man himself has already set his career highs in targets, receptions, and yards in just 13 games. The biggest issue from a fantasy standpoint is that he hasn’t scored a touchdown. Kyler Murray acknowledged his tight end’s absence from the end zone and said he will work to rectify that fact, something in McBride’s favor.
McBride is a no-doubt fantasy starter this week; there’s not a lot else to say about it.
Chig Okonkwo, Tennessee Titans @ Indianapolis Colts
Okonkwo is around 2.7 receptions and 25.4 yards per game on the season. Those numbers are very close to his career rates as well, locking him in as a low-end fantasy player. He doesn’t make up for it by scoring either, having only gotten into the end zone six times in three years.
The Colts offer one of the best chances for success, though, as they have given up the 10th-most yards per pass attempt and second-most fantasy points to tight ends. Don’t look at the Week 6 matchup between these teams if you’re looking for Okonkwo confidence: he turned three receptions into just six yards and fumbled, though Tennessee recovered the ball.
Okonkwo is a low-end fantasy streamer. This is a play for someone who is desperate and doesn’t have an option; at least the matchup is in his favor. Mason Rudolph will start for the Titans, maybe raising the floor a bit for the team’s offense.
Sit
Zach Ertz, Washington Commanders vs. Philadelphia Eagles
Ertz suffered a concussion last week and might not play. He has returned to practice this week but hasn’t been cleared, so he’s a risky option even if he does get on the field. That’s not a smart play if you’re in your fantasy semi-finals.
Add in the worst matchup possible, and Ertz is a must-sit player. Philadelphia has allowed the least yards per pass attempt and seventh-least fantasy points per game to tight ends. This might be the best pass defense in the league.
Don’t start Ertz. Don’t do it. And if he ends up missing the game, don’t even consider his backups John Bates and Ben Sinnott.
Cole Kmet, Chicago Bears vs. Detroit Lions
Kmet will almost surely finish with less catches, yards, and touchdowns than last season. Chicago brought in Keenan Allen and Rome Odunze in the offseason, but it has to be classified as a disappointment that Kmet took a step backward when going from Justin Fields to Caleb Williams at QB.
The Lions have allowed the fewest fantasy points to tight ends. They are in the middle in yards per pass attempt allowed, but the guys on the end haven’t had any luck against Detroit. When these teams played on Thanksgiving, Kmet had three catches for 26 yards.
Kmet is better left on your bench this week. He’s a borderline starter who ebbs and flows with the matchup, leaving him as nothing more than a desperation play here.
Jonnu Smith, Miami Dolphins vs. San Francisco 49ers
What a year for Smith. He has set career highs essentially across the board (two shy in touchdowns), is tied for the team lead in receptions (70) and touchdowns (six), and is second in receiving yards (740).
The 49ers offer one of the toughest matchups around, though, as they have allowed the fourth-least yards per pass attempt and second-least fantasy points per game. Among a disappointing season, the San Fran defense has held up their end of the bargain.
Smith will be seen as a must-start player by some owners, and I can understand why. He is TE3 in standard scoring and TE4 in PPR. The matchup makes it worth thinking twice, though, depending on your philosophy in the playoffs (stars versus matchups).
