4 Fantasy Football Bold Predictions: Hot Takes on Russell Wilson, Ja'Marr Chase, Jahmyr Gibbs, Lamar Jackson, Brock Purdy, David Montgomery and Derrick Henry

One man's fantasy football bold prediction is another man's trash. Speculating about the NFL in mid-May about the results of games to be played four or five months from now is an exercise in futility. It's also fun.

Looking forward to this season, storylines are already bubbling up to the surface. For example, Jared Goff signed a contract extension with the Detroit Lions, netting him an additional four years for $212M, including $170M guaranteed. His average annual salary will be $53M. 

This is a guy who the Rams traded away along with two then-future first-round picks (2022 & 2023) and a 2021 third-round pick. If you follow what happened with those picks, there were some hits (adding more picks), some misses (a few of those picks have yet to pan out) and some home runs (Jahmyr Gibbs and Sam LaPorta). How often do you see NFL trades work out so well for both teams and, while we're at it, for fantasy managers as well?

So the Lions get out ahead of their star quarterback's big extension while the Cowboys sit on their hands with Dak Prescott, CeeDee Lamb and Micah Parsons all on expiring contracts. The risk here is more than I could stomach. What happens if any of them suffer a big injury? Their trade value gets tanked, and now the Cowboys have to re-sign a guy coming off an injury who won't want that to impact his new contract too strongly. 

Or what if all three have monster years, and Dallas can only afford to sign one of them? At a minimum, I'm not envious of a dynasty manager rostering any one of this trio as they try to navigate their fantasy values, let alone the ramifications for those running the Cowboys organization.

I discuss these salary cap and contract situations because they are often overlooked components in fantasy football analysis and will also affect my bold predictions.

1. Ja'Marr Chase eclipses 2,000 yards

After trading Tee Higgins ahead of the 2024 trade deadline, the Bengals run their offense through Chase in the second half of the season - catapulting him over the 2,000-yard total and setting a new NFL record.

Even with a 17-game schedule, we have yet to see a wide receiver gain 2,000 receiving yards. Megatron, aka Calvin Johnson, was on the doorstep in 2012 when he went for 1,964 yards, and Cooper Kupp wasn't far behind at 1,947 yards in 2021.

In the last three seasons, five of the 13 total instances of a receiver going for 1,700+ yards occurred (Kupp, Justin Jefferson, Tyreek Hill twice and CeeDee Lamb). 

Chase's career-best came in his rookie season (1,455), so he has a long way to go. However, the Bengals don't have a standout tight end, and there could be a running-back-by-committee approach between Zack Moss and Chase Brown. So, if you factor in a potential midseason trade of Higgins, the offense will fall squarely on Chase's shoulders.

2. Brock Purdy leads the league in passing touchdowns

Kyle Shanahan and the 49ers have to be PO'd. They looked like the best or second-best team in the NFL for the entirety of the 2023 season, only to get beat by the Chiefs in the Super Bowl for the second time in five years, with two losses in the NFC Championship Game in between.

San Francisco has been knocking on the door. I expect them to pound the table in 2024. With Deebo Samuel, Brandon Aiyuk, Christian McCaffrey, George Kittle and don't sleep on Ricky Pearsall this year, Brock Purdy will light the league up.

Purdy's over/under TD total at DraftKings is 28.5. Their sportsbook has three quarterbacks with higher O/U totals (Patrick Mahomes 34.5, Dak Prescott 32.5 and Jordan Love 29.5) and three more with the same total (Joe Burrow, C.J. Stroud and Jared Goff). Those are all fair, but the books aren't huge on Purdy. They have him 12th in odds for most regular season passing yards, tied with Trevor Lawrence.

I anticipate San Francisco running up the score on some teams; it feels like that kind of year. 

3. Two teams will have two players rush for 1,000 yards

I have to be vague and say players because one of the duos will include a quarterback.

It's happened seven times in NFL history but just once in the last 15 years. In 2019, Lamar Jackson and Mark Ingram both eclipsed the 1,000-yard mark. In 2024, Jackson and Derrick Henry will accomplish the feat, and Jahmyr Gibbs and David Montgomery will join them.

The Lions have the best offensive line in football. I'd have given that title to the Eagles, but Detroit has the slight edge after Jason Kelce's retirement.

Gibbs and Montgomery came close last year as the rookie finished with 945 yards, and the veteran collected 1,015 yards. 

Embedded in this feat - two teams having two runners rush for 1,000 yards - is what I believe will be indicative of a new chapter in the NFL with the start of a shift back to more powerful ground-game offenses. Defenses have developed a heavy focus on defending the pass, and they have never been faster. So now, I'm waiting for offenses to counter with a more smash-mouth, conservative approach spearheaded by the big uglies in the trenches and talented running backs taking advantage.

4. After getting benched, Russell Wilson retires midseason

RIP and salute to Vontae Davis who had the most epic move ever after he retired in the middle of a Week 2 game against the Los Angeles Chargers. He will be one-upped in what will be yet another eccentric piece to Wilson's career puzzle. After Justin Fields enters a game this year, the 35-year-old will call it a career. 

On a one-year prove-it deal, Wilson is only signed to a $1.21M deal with the Steelers. With $266M in career earnings, I feel like another hiccup in his career will be enough for Wilson to draw a line in the sand.

This isn't to say Fields will come in and light it up to the point that Wilson will quit. Many fantasy managers would like a Fields redemption after his tenure in Chicago. The same could be said for Wilson, who's seen more downs than ups in recent years.

Many athletes in the Tom Brady and LeBron James eras believe they could all last forever. This has only worsened over the years as guys stick around for too long. Wilson turns 36 later this year. Most quarterbacks are well into a decline by 36. I think Wilson already sees the writing on the wall and goes out on his own terms.

Call it a fantasy football bust, a fantasy football bold prediction, or a retirement. It's all the same to me.