NFL Offensive Player of the Year Best Bets: Where do Justin Jefferson, Christian McCaffrey, Tyreek Hill and Others Stand?

Injuries can sometimes make projecting the NFL season an exercise in futility. Any team who loses their quarterback faces an uphill climb to contention. Things can turn the other way, too: would the Greatest Show on Turf Rams ever have found big playoff success if Trent Green didn’t get injured, giving way to Kurt Warner?

That makes placing wagers on individual awards even tougher than team results. If you bet on the Bengals to win the AFC North last year, Joe Burrow’s season-ending injury severely hurt the chances of your wager winning. If you bet on Burrow to win MVP, though, then his injury lowered your chances to 0%. A bet to win any individual award is a losing proposition.

That being said, let’s look at some betting numbers on individual awards! With the NFL in one of its only true slow periods, there’s not a lot else to talk about. It’s the perfect time to look at the landscape of the league, not only in terms of what we expect as fans, but also from the perspective of Vegas and the betting markets.

Looking for a good bet is all about value. It’s relatively likely that Lamar Jackson will be in the conversation for MVP again, but he has some of the shortest odds, meaning there’s not a lot of value in a Jackson MVP wager; all it takes is one hit and your bet is up in smoke.

The Offensive Player of the Year award should be won by the MVP every year. The Most Valuable Player is an offensive guy, but somehow, he doesn’t win the honor of best player on his side of the ball? OK.

The way voting goes is that the MVP is generally ignored in favor of someone who hit a big number of yards and/or touchdowns, leading the league in multiple categories.

Quarterbacks do win this award: Patrick Mahomes in 2018, Matt Ryan in 2016, Cam Newton in 2015. More often, though, and especially lately, this award has gone to the best non-quarterback offensive player.

More specifically, it’s gone to the best running back or wide receiver, as no tight end or offensive lineman has ever won the award. That’s how I’m approaching this exercise: backs and receivers are the only positions I will look at. There will be another article focusing on MVP in which I’ll run down the QBs.

Here, I am looking at some of the players considered most likely to win Offensive Player of the Year and eliminating options until I get to my favorite bets. Though the guy who wins this award at the end of the season might not even be on my list, the names below are the players most likely to come away with the honor.

Listed odds are from FanDuel and correct as of June 12. You can find investigations into other future bets at the links below: AFC Division Champions, NFC Division Champions, AFC Conference Champion, NFC Conference Champion, Offensive Rookie of the Year, Defensive Rookie of the Year

Running Backs

Christian McCaffrey won this award last year while leading all running backs in rushing yards and total yards and finishing second in receiving yards. He tied for the lead in touchdowns with Raheem Mostert (21).

Derrick Henry ran for 2,000 yards in 2020 when he won and led backs with 17 rushing touchdowns. Any running back who might win this award has to be the driving force of his team’s offense, a rarity in the pass-dominated modern NFL outside of true pass-catching backs like McCaffrey.

Guys who will be overshadowed

• Breece Hall +2500
• Bijan Robinson +2500
• Jahmyr Gibbs +3500
• Derrick Henry +4500
• Travis Etienne +6000

Each of these guys will probably see others get more credit for any offensive breakout. Hall, Robinson, Henry and Etienne all have a quarterback who is either coming in new (I’m including Aaron Rodgers), brimming for a big jump, or already at an MVP level. Henry just isn’t going to be as important as Lamar Jackson.

Gibbs is part of an offensive machine and will have to make a McCaffrey-like impact in both the rushing and passing game to reach this height. With a highly paid quarterback, wide receiver and multiple offensive linemen around him, it will be hard for Gibbs to stand out while sharing the backfield with David Montgomery.

None of these five backs is likely to be the story if their team dominates on offense.

Guys with injury concerns

• Christian McCaffrey +900
• Saquon Barkley +2000
• De'Von Achane +4500
• Kyren Williams +4500

These four backs could all be argued as the clear lead rusher for their respective team; some don’t even need an argument. Rather than a teammate who will almost definitely outshine them, though, these guys are held down by their injury histories.

Along with past maladies, McCaffrey’s odds are just too short here. So many things can go wrong that anything less than +1000 is an instant no-go for best value (and even that number might be low).

Williams is proof of how easily the Rams plug guys in and get production. He missed five games last year, and LA drafted Michigan’s Blake Corum in the third round, so it’s easy to see Williams not being able to rack up the numbers necessary to compete for this award.

Achane had the highest highs of anyone here, gaining yardage at elite efficiency rates and scoring long touchdowns. He is undersized, and Achane played just 11 games last season, spending time on the IR. It’s tough to expect big volume, especially given how Miami likes to rotate backs.

Barkley is a big name but seems to be injured as often as he’s healthy. He could also be argued for the previous section because he has a quarterback who has played at an MVP level and two star wide receivers flanking him. With so many other weapons and Barkley likely to miss time, he is a bad bet, especially as the second-highest listed running back by odds.

Runner Up - Jonathan Taylor +3500

Before making a change, Taylor ended up as my best bet by default. He also has recent injury history that would make me avoid this bet, but with Anthony Richardson returning after playing only four games last season, Taylor is in position to carry a running offense along with his QB.

I didn’t like labeling him my “Best Bet,” though. I don’t feel good about Taylor and made an executive decision to bump him out of the top spot for a wild card.

Best Bet

Nick Chubb +15000

This revolves around Chubb returning from a horrendous knee injury and producing from Week 1. It’s not a good bet, but that’s why the return here is so high. Chubb is one of the few running backs in recent years who has been the focal point of a successful offense. 

With Deshaun Watson struggling in his time with Cleveland, a healthy Chubb would likely again be at the center of the gameplan. Similar to Taylor and Richardson in Indianapolis, Watson and Chubb could form a great rushing duo spearheaded by the latter who would approach 20 touchdowns in this scenario.

It’s highly unlikely, and Chubb is not going to be my best bet for the award. That will come from the wide receivers, where more consistency and value exist.

Wide Receivers

NFL teams are rushing for as many yards as they have at any time since the mid-80s. The increase in passing, though, has made rushing production fall from about 40% of total yards to closer to 25%. It’s a passing league.

With that thought process, I see the most value in OPOY bets being receivers. With the wear and tear running backs take, they are often more likely to get hurt as well, so I don’t see much of an argument for any back having more value than every receiver for this award.

Too many other pieces

• Amon-Ra St. Brown +2100
• A.J. Brown +3000
• Garrett Wilson +4500
• Stefon Diggs +5000
• Drake London +5000
• Deebo Samuel Sr. +5000

Each guy here plays with one or more very good-to-great offensive players who will steal at least some of the thunder. There is overlap here with the running back group that I said would be “overshadowed,” with Detroit, Philadelphia, Atlanta and the Jets featuring players in both categories.

St. Brown, Diggs and London all have highly drafted and/or highly regarded running backs and tight ends to share touches with. While any of the three could easily lead their team in yards and/or touchdowns, the workload to truly stand out might be hard to come by.

Brown and Wilson each play with a high-profile quarterback who will take a lot of the attention when the passing game excels, on top of having star teammates at the skill positions. Breece Hall, Mike Williams, DeVonta Smith, Saquon Barkley and others will have something to say about their respective top receivers dominating the touches.

Samuel is part of maybe the most talented offensive team in the league; every position has a legitimate OPOY and/or MVP candidate. Despite the team’s efforts to get Samuel the ball in different ways, he is likely to see his usage waver with so many teammates who can do damage.

Too short of odds

• Tyreek Hill +700
• Ja'Marr Chase +1000
• CeeDee Lamb +1000

Each guy here has a good argument for most likely to lead the league in receiving, but that also gives them odds too short to really give a good return on the bet. Anything can happen, such as an injury, another player having a phenomenal year, etc. There are so many things that can go wrong. A bet with this small of a return doesn’t have value.

Honorable Mention - Justin Jefferson +1000

He’s only been injured once, but every player who has ever had injury issues started by getting injured once. That’s not the only reason he’s eliminated, because the odds are also too short, but I wanted to highlight Jefferson because I feel he is a special case.

On top of health, Jefferson will be catching passes from a lightly tested rookie in J.J. McCarthy. Sam Darnold is in Minnesota also, and the team keeps saying he’s currently the starter, but I have to imagine the Vikes will feel behind schedule if McCarthy can’t beat out the veteran by Week 1.

Some have predicted the Vikings will switch to a running offense given their new circumstances. It makes sense in theory, but Minnesota has thrown the ball among the most in the league since coach Kevin O’Connell took over in 2022.

Two years ago, the Vikes were third in the league in pass attempts. Last year, they threw just five less passes than the league leader. McCarthy isn’t Kirk Cousins, but is O’Connell really going to change things up that much when he has very little running back talent and great pass catching talent?

All being equal, Jefferson isn’t a bad bet. With short odds and coming off a major injury, though, I don’t like the value.

Best Bet

Puka Nacua +2500

Nacua’s case is to essentially repeat Cooper Kupp’s performance from 2021 when he won Offensive Player of the Year: 145 catches, 1,947 yards, 16 touchdowns. Ironically, the best way for Nacua to hit those numbers is for Kupp to suffer another long-term injury and leave the second-year player as the clear top option.

C.J. Stroud’s immediate ascension to franchise quarterback robbed Nacua of any chance at the Offensive Rookie of the Year in 2023, but the receiver was setting records seemingly every week and looked like a star from Week 1.

To reach Kupp’s OPOY numbers, Nacua would have to increase his receptions by 38%, yards by 31% and touchdowns by more than 166%. That’s a tough order for anyone, and it’s very unlikely. If Nacua is the clear leader on a team that overtakes the 49ers in the NFC West, though, he has a path toward producing another Offensive Player of the Year season in LA.