Analyzing ADP Tight End Data: Are TEs Like Sam LaPorta, Travis Kelce, Trey McBride, Dalton Kincaid, Kyle Pitts and More Being Drafted Early, Late or Just Right?

Taking a look at FantasySP fantasy football ADP data as the regular season nears.

After analyzing fantasy football Average Draft Position data for quarterbacks, running backs and then wide receivers, it’s time to do the same for the tight end position.

We won’t hit on every team’s top couple tight ends, but instead the ones who are most relevant in fantasy football drafts this season.

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The Cream of the Crop

Sam LaPorta and Travis Kelce are easily the top two tight ends going off fantasy draft boards so far this year. LaPorta is the top TE taken so far, going around pick 23, while Kelce is second around pick 25.

LaPorta was a stud in his rookie season, going for nearly 900 yards and 10 touchdowns during 17 regular season games. In just one season, LaPorta has cemented himself as a top-end fantasy tight end talent.

It’s never easy taking tight ends in fantasy drafts, especially early on. The Lions have a stacked offense, but outside Amon-Ra St. Brown, don’t have a ton of pass catchers who are proven. That should mean LaPorta is in for another big season, and that he’ll be even better in year two in the NFL.

I’m fine taking LaPorta near his ADP. He finished around that spot a season ago and could easily be a top-20 RB/WR/TE with a hundred or so more yards. I think he has a safe floor and some great upside, meaning he’s not super risky to take.

Kelce had a bit of a down regular season last year before turning it on when his team needed him the most. He still had 984 yards and five touchdowns across 15 games played.

The yardage is great, but the touchdown total really fell off for Kelce. I expect a little bounceback there, but am not as much of a fan of Kelce as I am LaPorta.

I’m not talking passing on Kelce for a full round, but simply a few more picks. He still should be a top-end fantasy TE talent, but he might not put up the same fantasy numbers some of the receivers and running backs do around him.

The Next Trio

Mark Andrews, Trey McBride and Dalton Kincaid are the next three tight ends off draft boards. They are going between picks 45-51.

Andrews is coming off a season in which he played only 10 games. He still went for 544 yards and six scores last season, so the injury concern isn’t affecting fantasy owners too much right now.

Baltimore added a couple offensive weapons, but Andrews is still likely going to be the first or second option in the passing game with Zay Flowers. That should mean another big fantasy season for Andrews, and I think there’s a chance he passes over Kelce for the second TE spot. So I’m all for taking Andrews near his ADP, and think he could become a draft steal by the end of the season.

McBride had a breakout season in his sophomore campaign, going for over 800 yards. He only scored three touchdowns, but was targeted 106 times overall, which should be the bigger takeaway.

The Cardinals added Marvin Harrison Jr. in the draft, but lost Marquise Brown. A healthy Kyler Murray should help McBride have a big season, and although we have just one season of good production from him, I like the idea of adding McBride. There’s some safer picks you could take instead, but I think McBride has the most potential after LaPorta, Kelce and Andrews.

Kincaid was good in his rookie season, going for nearly 700 yards but just two scores. He accomplished those numbers in 16 games.

The Bills drafted Keon Coleman, but lost Stefon Diggs and Gabe Davis this offseason. The passing game needs some players to step up, and Kincaid has a great chance to fill one of those roles. Like McBride, Kincaid isn’t the safest pick, but he’s got some good potential. I’m fine taking him around his ADP.

Promise vs. Consistency

Kyle Pitts and George Kittle are the next two tight ends off draft boards, going around pick 57.

Pitts is more of an upside pick, as he’s yet to put together a complete season. Kirk Cousins being Pitts’ quarterback definitely is a fantasy boost for him, and outside of Drake London and Bijan Robinson, the Falcons need some other playmakers to step up. 

There’s risk involved, as Pitts could finish inside the top three if all things come together, or he could land outside the top 10 again. I think the upside outweighs the risk, so I’m OK taking Pitts near his ADP.

Kittle is one of the safer fantasy TEs in the game. Taking away his rookie season and then the 2020 season in which Kittle only played eight games, Kittle has at least 765 yards and five touchdowns in each season.

Kittle had some up and down fantasy performances last season, but at a weaker fantasy TE position, you take that. I feel safer taking Kittle over McBride, Kincaid and Pitts, but Kittle’s upside isn’t as high probably. So, Kittle is worth taking around his ADP, with a safe floor but not a ton of upside.

Other Top-100 Options

Evan Engram, Jake Ferguson, David Njoku and Brock Bowers are the other four fantasy TEs going inside the top 100 right now.

Engram had 963 yards and four scores a season ago. It was his best season in terms of yardage.

Jacksonville has new faces on offense, which could work for or against Engram. Trevor Lawrence probably feels most comfortable throwing to Engram over guys like Gabe Davis and Brian Thomas Jr., but those two combined probably will take away targets and production from the TE. I think there’s some good value in taking Engram here, and there’s a chance he finishes inside the top five at the position.

Ferguson improved greatly from his rookie to sophomore season. He had 761 yards and five touchdowns a season ago.

The Dallas offense is pretty much the same from a season ago, so I either envision a similar season, or a better one, for Ferguson. I like the value Ferguson’s ADP represents, and would prefer to take a chance on him over the risky younger options (McBride, Kincaid, Pitts).

Njoku had his best season of his seven-year NFL career, going for 882 yards and six touchdowns.

The Browns’ offense is pretty similar to a season ago, so again, I like Njoku to enjoy another solid season, or possibly even improve on it. He’s another good TE to target if you don’t want to spend an early pick on the position.

Bowers was the first-round pick of the Raiders in the 2024 Draft. He had three big seasons at Georgia while in college.

Bowers should have a chance to immediately make an impact for the Raiders’ offense, but the quarterback situation isn’t the greatest with either Gardner Minshew or Aidan O'Connell likely starting. I prefer Bowers over some of the next tight ends on the board, but there’s always a ton of risk if you are relying on him to be your TE1.

Other Possible Starting Options

Dallas Goedert, T.J. Hockenson, Pat Freiermuth, Cole Kmet and Luke Musgrave are going between picks 105-140.

Goedert played in 14 games last season, but also took a step back as a pass catcher. The Eagles’ offense is pretty similar to last season, and there will be some opportunities for Goedert to be a good fantasy asset. I think it’s fair to have him as TE11 - he has a chance to easily crack the top 10, but I think his ADP is fair. I’d take Goedert as a backup option, especially if I took a gamble on a young TE.

Hockenson was one of the best fantasy TE last season until he went down with an injury. We don’t have a timeline for Hockenson’s return to the field yet, so that makes taking him especially risky. If he can return to his pre-injury self, he could still be a draft steal, but I’m not comfortable enough taking him around his ADP.

Freiermuth only appeared in 12 games a season ago, and took a step back in production, just like Goedert. Pittsburgh needs some pass catchers to step up, so there’s some hope that Freiermuth could fill that role. He’s a solid backup option, or someone to protect a young TE with.

Kmet had the most receiving yards of his career in 2023, but with a ton of new faces on the Bears’ offense, Kmet isn’t a top-10 fantasy TE in drafts. But, because Kmet’s ADP is fairly low, I think there’s some great value available if you can land him around his current mark.

Musgrave is part of a loaded offense as well, and also has a decent TE (Tucker Kraft) on the same team. Musgrave had 352 yards and a touchdown in 11 games last season. I’d prefer to pass on Musgrave in drafts and treat him as a waiver wire option to begin the season.

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