Fantasy Football Quarterback ADP Report: Caleb Williams and Bo Nix Rise, While Steelers' QBs and Justin Herbert Fall

The NFL season officially kicks off in less than a week. Many fantasy football leagues have already had their drafts, but many more will draft over the next six days. Now is the time when it is most important to be locked into every ADP change. The last thing a fantasy manager wants is to show up to their draft with out-of-date information. With that in mind, let’s take a look at the biggest movers in quarterback ADP over the last week.

As always, all ADP data is found using FantasySP’s ADP Tool, which automatically tracks each player’s trend over the last seven days. Let’s get started.

Fantasy Football Quarterback ADP Risers

Bo Nix, Denver Broncos (-10.93)

Wow. At this stage of the draft process, rising nearly a full round in ADP is a massive jump. Over the last month, Nix has risen over 40 total spots in total ADP, from well outside the top 200 players to his current rank at 183rd overall. On the one hand, it’s easy to see why. Nix performed well in preseason and 10 days ago was announced to be the first rookie to start in the Broncos’ season opener since John Elway. 

That most recent piece of news is probably the cause for Nix’s big jump over the last week. This is our first red flag, as Nix has been all but certain to be the Broncos’ starter for a long time now — moving him up again with the official announcement is double-counting. Even after his big rise, Nix is still just the QB24, making him a backend QB2. He’s not worth drafting in one-QB leagues, but in 2-QB or superflex formats, that’s a very relevant spot. 

Unfortunately, that spot is too high for Nix. At the very least, he should be behind Geno Smith. Smith is on a better team, with better weapons, and is just a better quarterback than Nix. Given the Broncos’ lack of weapons, even a guy like Sam Darnold should be drafted above Nix. Nix does come with unknown upside as a rookie, but he lacks the high floor that is key for a QB2 in formats where two quarterbacks are started.

Caleb Williams, Chicago Bears (-2.59)

The first overall pick in this year’s NFL draft, Caleb just keeps rising. He is now just outside the QB1 range, being drafted as the QB13 in the ninth round. Between admitting that he never gets nervous on Hard Knocks and lighting it up in the preseason, Williams can do no wrong. 

And honestly, I’ve started to buy the hype. When Williams first appeared as a riser following the premiere episode of Hard Knocks, I recommended avoiding him at his inflated ADP. But the future of the Bears has won me over.

Most notably, he’s shown more ability and, more importantly, willingness to run in the preseason than I anticipated, which is huge for his fantasy ceiling. Combine that with his generational talent and elite weapons, and Caleb has a legit shot to finish his rookie season as a locked-in QB1. Especially given that, as the QB13, Williams is being drafted as a backup, it’s worth drafting him to chase that upside.

Fantasy Football Quarterback ADP Fallers

Russell Wilson and Justin Fields, Pittsburgh Steelers (+20.37 & +3.35)

I honestly don’t understand what fantasy managers are thinking at this point with this duo of Steelers quarterbacks. These two quarterbacks, on the same team, were thought to be in a position battle (even though it was clear to anyone paying attention that Russ was the starter). The winner, who previously had a lower ADP than his teammate, was announced … and somehow still fell by nearly two full rounds, while the now-confirmed backup only fell three spots. 

Obviously, Fields is hugely overrated. Yes, he has massive upside if he ever wins the starting job. But that does not make him a draftable player, especially as the QB26.  

Wilson, while obviously underrated compared to Fields at QB30, is a bit trickier to evaluate in general. I do think he is more likely to lose his job than someone like Derek Carr, who is just one spot ahead at QB29 in ADP. And playing on an Arthur Smith offense with limited weapons isn’t going to be good for his fantasy value. Even following this fall, Wilson’s current ADP is about right — he’s a QB3 option for two-QB leagues, with plenty of risk and limited upside. 

Justin Herbert, Los Angeles Chargers (+1.48)

Jumping back to quarterbacks who are actually relevant in one-quarterback leagues, I’m surprised to see Herbert as a faller. After all, the main piece of Herbert-related news we received over the last week was that he had returned to practice after missing time with a foot injury. Surely no one is fading Herbert in fantasy because the Chargers traded for Taylor Heinicke? 

Whatever the reason, Herbert is a great pick at his current price. As much as everyone is worried about Jim Harbaugh and Greg Roman’s run-heavy histories, neither has ever coached a pocket passer as talented as Herbert. Maybe they’ll even add in some designed quarterback runs for Herbert, who has always been an underrated athlete.

Putting aside all these scheme questions, at a certain point it’s worth taking a bet on Herbert’s talent. This is a quarterback who ranked in the top 10 in fantasy as a rookie, then followed that up with a QB2 overall finish. That we can draft him as the QB17 may go down as one of the biggest values of the 2024 fantasy season. At the very least, he should be drafted before Trevor Lawrence.