Week 1 Start Decision Breakdowns: DeVonta Smith or Jaylen Waddle, Jayden Reed or Diontae Johnson, Christian Watson or Keon Coleman, and More

The NFL regular season is underway after Thursday’s game between the Chiefs and Ravens.

There’s another standalone game before Sunday though, as the Packers and Eagles meet in Brazil on Friday night. With that in mind, I wanted to go over more start decisions that fantasy football owners are wondering about.

Packers quarterback Jordan Love was written about extensively in a QB start decision story, so be sure to check that out.

Looking for start/sit help? Be sure to check out the FantasySP Who Should I Start tool. Explore the best in-season fantasy football tool to manage your team and get league rankings with the Fantasy Assistant. Use our  trade analyzer and trade value charts to break down trade scenarios with Fair Trade ratings.

Start DeVonta Smith or Jaylen Waddle?

Let’s start with a fun debate between two of the best WR2s in the NFL.

Smith will be going up against a Packers’ defense that was pretty good against the pass in 2023 - Green Bay struggled to slow the run. The team has a new defensive coordinator and scheme, so you can take all that with a grain of salt.

Waddle will battle the Jaguars in week 1. Jacksonville was one of the worst defenses when it came to defending the pass last season.

Waddle is projected for 15 PPR fantasy points, while Smith is at 14. That puts them both in the upper echelon of fantasy wideouts.

FantasySP data shows that fantasy owners are starting Waddle only 8% of the time, while Smith starts alone 7% of the time. Owners are most often starting the players together, 75% of the time.

I’d also start Waddle over Smith if forced to choose between the two. I think both are fine starting options for week 1 though and would start both if I could. I worry more about Smith because I could see the Eagles prioritizing the run, which would limit the targets and touches he gets.

Start Christian Watson or Courtland Sutton?

The next start decision is between Watson and Sutton. 

The Eagles’ defense struggled against the pass in 2023, but also added several new faces to the secondary, so they should be a bit improved. The Packers have four good fantasy options at receiver and were a very balanced group a season ago, making every guy a bit risky to start.

Sutton and the Broncos face the Seahawks in week 1. Seattle was a bit below average in slowing the pass last season. The bigger issue might be that Denver is starting rookie Bo Nix in a tough road environment, making Sutton a risky play despite him being the team’s clear No. 1 option.

Watson is projected for 12 PPR fantasy points, while Sutton is at 11. That makes each guy a flex option for week 1 in standard setups.

Fantasy owners are starting Watson only nearly 16% of the time, while Sutton gets the start over Watson just 6% of the time. They are being started together 12% of the time.

I’d roll with the projections here and give Watson the edge over Sutton for a possible standard league start. I think he’s got a better chance to score, and I’d trust him to produce more despite having to share targets and catches with several teammates. 

Start Jayden Reed or Diontae Johnson?

Next up is a debate between receivers Reed and Johnson.

We’ve already mentioned the Eagles’ defense, but I want to mention that the Packers like to get Reed involved in the run game too. The few extra touches are appealing to a lot of fantasy owners.

Johnson and the Panthers face the Saints in week 1. New Orleans had one of the better pass defenses in the league a season ago. Johnson played in Pittsburgh last season, so he didn’t face his new division foes at all.

Reed is projected for 12 PPR points, while Johnson is at 13 points. Both are on the flex spot starting line in standard leagues.

When compared against each other, Reed is starting 18% of the time, while Johnson is at 16%. They are started together nearly 15% of the time.

This is one of the closer decisions I’ve come across this week. If forced to make a choice between the two, I’d lean toward Johnson. I like that he’s his team’s No. 1 option, even though his matchup is a bit tougher.

Start Christian Watson or Keon Coleman?

Watson is back for another battle, this time with Coleman.

Coleman will make his NFL regular season debut against the Cardinals in week 1. Arizona was in the top half of the league last season in defending the pass, but more toward the middle of the league. Coleman has a chance to become the WR1 in Buffalo this season, but is listed as a backup on the depth chart.

These are two more flex options for week 1. We already mentioned Watson being at 12 PPR points, and Coleman is at just nine.

Fantasy owners prefer Watson to start alone 22% of the time, while Coleman is starting 9% of the time. Both guys are being started just 8% of the time.

I’m leaning with fantasy owners and the projections here and prefer Watson over Coleman. It’s hard to trust Watson in his balanced offense, but at least we know he’ll be on the field a bunch. We can’t say the same for Coleman, and having him listed as a backup scares me off him.

Start Romeo Doubs or Rome Odunze?

Doubs and Odunze make up another decision.

Doubs was on the injury report with a hand injury early in the week, but he practiced in full on Thursday and has no injury designation. 

Odunze and the Bears face the Titans in week 1. Tennessee was pretty average in slowing the pass a season ago. Odunze has to contend with D.J. Moore and Keenan Allen for targets, but Allen is also dealing with a heel injury, so that could mean more snaps and production for Odunze.

Doubs is projected for 11 PPR fantasy points, while Odunze is at 10. These are two more guys who are flex options in standard leagues.

Fantasy owners have Odunze as the overwhelming favorite, starting him 34% of the time, while Doubs is at just 1%. They are starting together in 3% of leagues.

I don’t think the numbers should be quite as drastic, but I too would prefer to start Odunze over Doubs in week 1. It’s really close, but there’s less receiving options in the Bears’ offense, and that gives him the slight edge over Doubs in my book.

Start Jayden Reed or Raheem Mostert?

Reed is also part of a decision with Mostert.

We already mentioned that the Dolphins are playing the Jaguars in week 1. Jacksonville was a top-10 run defense in 2023. Mostert has De'Von Achane and others in his own backfield to contend with, but after a monster 2023 season, I don’t expect the Dolphins to just abandon the running back.

Mostert is projected for 11 PPR points this week, which is just behind Reed. Mostert is another flex starting option in week 1.

Fantasy owners are starting Mostert alone 33% of the time, while Reed starts over the RB 10% of the time. They are being started together in 24% of leagues.

I too prefer Mostert over Reed for a flex spot. Mostert has a chance to be a bigger part of his offense than Reed, and I like Mostert’s chances to score more too.