Fantasy Football Week 3 D/ST Start/Sit: Packers, Colts, Buccaneers, Cowboys, Texans, Ravens

Welcome to this week’s fantasy football DST start/sit breakdown! As always, the key to DST start/sit decisions is matchups, matchups, matchups. Let’s get right into it!

For more help with Start/Sit decisions, check out FantasySP’s NFL Start/Sit tool!

Fantasy Football Defenses To Start Week 3

Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. Denver Broncos

Despite being the third-ranked defense in our Week 3 DST Projections, the Buccaneers’ defense is currently being started in under 50% of leagues. That number should absolutely be higher. Bo Nix and Co. currently rank in the bottom five in every major offensive category, including tying for the league lead with five turnovers lost. 

Tampa Bay’s defense isn’t elite, but they did just hold the Lions to 16 points. They are absolutely worth starting in this prime matchup.

Green Bay Packers @ Tennessee Titans

Fantasy managers are clearly slightly concerned about this matchup, as the Packers are only rostered, let alone started, in just about a quarter of leagues. And, to be fair, the Titans did just put up 17 points on the vaunted Jets' defense. But the Jets still finished with a very solid outing, as they racked up four sacks, one interception, and one fumble recovery. The Will Levis experience has highs, but it also has lows. 

The Titans have the sixth-lowest yards per play in the league, as well as the fourth-lowest net yards per passing attempt. Levis has also taken seven sacks through two games, and nothing helps boost a fantasy defense’s floor more than sacks.

Meanwhile, the Packers’ defense is fresh off a game in which they effectively shut down another up-and-down AFC South QB in Anthony Richardson, giving up just 10 points to the Colts. If Jordan Love is out, this will be a slow, run-heavy game, raising their floor. If he plays, the Packers should have a lead, leading to more Levis dropbacks … and mistakes.   

Indianapolis Colts vs. Chicago Bears

Caleb Williams will probably eventually be a good NFL quarterback. He’s already starting to show flashes of the talent that got him drafted first overall. But right now, it’s just flashes. 

The rookie is tied for the league lead in sacks taken on a massive 31.0% pressure-to-sack rate. His -0.28 EPA per dropback is the worst among starting QBs now that Bryce Young has been benched. He has yet to throw an NFL touchdown

Meanwhile, D'Andre Swift is yet again one of the least efficient high-volume backs in the NFL. Absolutely nothing is working for this Bears offense. The Colts’ defense hasn’t exactly thrived so far, but this is a chance for them to bounce back. With the 10th-highest pressure rate in the league, they should be able to make things hard on Caleb and the Bears. 

Fantasy Football Defenses To Sit Week 3

Baltimore Ravens @ Dallas Cowboys

Things may be tilting back in the defenses’ favor so far this year, but one thing is still true in the NFL: Great offense beats great defense. The Ravens’ defense has a reputation as one of the best in the league. They are currently rostered in over 90% of fantasy leagues and started in more than 70%. But they absolutely cannot be trusted on the road against this Cowboys offense.

For one, this Ravens defense might not be as good as we think. With Mike Macdonald now in Seattle, they have given up the fifth-most points of any team in the league thus far. To be fair, their Week 1 matchup with the Chiefs was a tough one … but then they gave up 26 points to Gardner Minshew and the Raiders.

Even if the Ravens’ defense is still elite, they’ve got another brutal matchup this week against the Cowboys. Although they were run over last week by the Saints, the Cowboys in the Dak Prescott era have a long history of being a very productive offense. Combine that with Baltimore’s defensive struggles thus far, and they do not belong in fantasy lineups for Week 3.

Dallas Cowboys vs. Baltimore Ravens

Things are very similar on the other side of this matchup. The Cowboys also have a reputation as one of the league’s best defenses. They are also currently rostered in almost every league and started in the vast majority of leagues. But they also just gave up 44 points to the Saints.

And, just like on the other side of this matchup, the Ravens’ offense is not a good matchup for opposing defenes. In 2023, they were the fourth-worst matchup in terms of fantasy points allowed; through two weeks of 2024, they are the sixth-worst. When in doubt, don't start a defense facing the reigning MVP.

Houston Texans @ Minnesota Vikings

This one is less obvious than the previous two. Where the Ravens and Cowboys are both consensus elite offenses with top-tier quarterbacks in Dak Prescott and Lamar Jackson, the Vikings are rolling out Sam Darnold. 

But Darnold just dropped 23 points (and a W) on the 49ers’ defense. Kevin O’Connell’s team is currently ninth in the NFL in EPA per play, as well as eighth in points scored. They’re even second in yards per play at a massive 6.8, just behind the offensive juggernaut that is New Orleans (as we all predicted, of course). 

Darnold looks competent, Aaron Jones is still a very efficient rusher, and Justin Jefferson is the best receiver in the league. This Vikings offense is much better than the erratic Colts and floundering Bears that the Texans have faced so far. Houston’s defense should not be started this week.