Week 6 Fantasy Football Tight End Start/Sit: Kyle Pitts, Zach Ertz, Dalton Kincaid and More

Three guys to start and three to leave on your bench in Week 6.

Already entering our sixth set of football games, it’s impossible to not draw conclusions that we feel are stone-cold locks for the rest of the season. Things change so fast, though. The Jets play the Bills and Steelers the next two weeks; imagine how different the AFC would look if New York won both of those games, taking the division lead in the process?

That jump from 2-3 to 4-3 and the top of the division wouldn’t mean anything in an MLB season, but it would be huge in the landscape of the NFL, even if we still won’t be half way through the season at that time.

In the fantasy world, it’s still a week-to-week game, and matchups, injuries, and bye weeks are about to wreak havoc on your psyche for the next three months. You’ll spend hours tweaking the exact perfect lineup only to watch everything go up in flames by halftime of the first set of games.

Let’s look at three tight ends to start and three to consider sitting in Week 6. I used NFL’s defensive passing stats and our FantasySP defensive rankings to help determine which teams were best to target. I will reference those numbers often.

Start

Zach Ertz, Washington Commanders @ Baltimore Ravens

When you think of Ravens football, you often think bruising defenses and low-scoring games, right? Well, that’s not the current iteration of the team, which has allowed the most passing yards and fifth-most yards per attempt on the season. Baltimore has given up at least 20 points in four of their five games.

Specific to tight ends, they’ve allowed the fourth-most fantasy points to the position, most notably seeing both Brock Bowers (Raiders) and Jake Ferguson (Cowboys) gain nearly 100 yards. A team still trying to find itself has been vulnerable defensively.

Ertz isn’t to be mistaken for his prime form in Philadelphia, but he’s still been productive on a surprisingly good offense. Jayden Daniels hit the ground running, giving Ertz more value than it might have seemed coming into the season.

He hasn’t had a big game yet, topping out at five catches and 62 yards, but this is a matchup in his favor, giving Ertz the upside of setting new season highs statistically. Ertz is a good streamer this week.

Chigoziem Okonkwo, Tennessee Titans vs. Indianapolis Colts

There’s been breakout buzz around Okonkwo since he was drafted in 2022, but that hasn’t come to fruition. Okonkwo hasn’t gained more than 68 yards in any single game in his career and has scored just five touchdowns. This season doesn’t seem like the one in which he’s going to find his way, as Okonkwo is averaging about 12.5 yards per game.

If there’s ever a chance for a big game, Indianapolis offers that opportunity. The Colts have given up the second-most fantasy points to tight ends and are bottom-five in stopping the pass. The Colts have been giving up points and yards in bunches.

I’m not giving a high recommendation to Okonkwo. He’s been “blah” for two-plus seasons and almost uninvolved this year. The matchup makes him a low-level streamer for owners desperate for a tight end.

Kyle Pitts, Atlanta Falcons @ Carolina Panthers

Pitts (and others) were projected to break out this season with Kirk Cousins coming to town. A huge Week 5 makes things look a little better than they’ve actually been, and Pitts is averaging less than 40 yards per week with just one score.

His seven catches and 88 yards from last week are numbers he has matched only once since his rookie season of 2021, and it took 58 pass attempts from Cousins to hit those marks. Projecting another big game isn’t realistic.

With a good matchup, though, Pitts could be a fantasy starter this week. Carolina has given up the third-most yards per pass attempt, and they are in the top 10 in most passing yards and fantasy points allowed to tight ends.

It’s more about the overall ineptitude of the Panthers than just their tight end defense. Carolina has the third-worst defensive DVOA (a measure of play-to-play success) and fourth-worst offensive DVOA. Everything is set up for failure in Carolina right now.

With the chance at another big day for the Falcons, Pitts is worth a look in your starting lineup. Don’t expect a huge day from Pitts, but he’s a guy to consider.

Sit

Evan Engram, Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Chicago Bears (in London)

Engram has only played in Week 1, missing the past four games with a hamstring injury. Head coach Doug Pederson is optimistic that Engram can return this week to face the Bears in London. That’s good for the Jags, but it might not make Engram a fantasy option.

The Bears are in the top 10 in least passing yards, yards per attempt, and fantasy points allowed to tight ends. They have carried over a good defensive performance at the end of 2023 into the first month-plus of this year, and fantasy players haven’t found a lot of success against Chicago.

Engram has a little extra risk due to the chance of re-tweaking his injured hamstring. Mixing that uncertainty with the tough matchup, it’s probably best to wait at least a week to put Engram into your lineup.

Hunter Henry, New England Patriots vs. Houston Texans

Houston’s defense is for real. Going back to DVOA, they have the third-best mark on defense while playing a little worse than average on offense. That might be surprising given what we’ve seen from C.J. Stroud and Co. in action, but the D has been the driving force of this team.

They are a top-five group in passing yards allowed and yards per attempt allowed, and the Texans have given up the second-least fantasy points per game to tight ends. This isn’t a team to test through the air, though they have been vulnerable against the run at times.

Henry leads the Patriots in targets and receiving yards, and he is second in receptions. The numbers are modest, as New England has averaged less than 150 passing yards per game, but seeing the most volume on the team is a good thing.

There’s a major change in Henry’s situation, as rookie Drake Maye will take over the starting QB job this week. He has a higher ceiling than Jacoby Brissett, but there’s also the great unknown. Really, though, can it get much worse as far as production is concerned?

Henry is in a low-floor situation this week given the matchup and new quarterback, and he shouldn’t be in any lineups unless you’re super desperate.

Dalton Kincaid, Buffalo Bills @ New York Jets

Kincaid faced that tough Houston team last week, when he was held to just two catches for 34 yards. That’s been a very typical game for Kincaid this season: he’s averaging about three catches and 33 yards per game.

The dreams of Kincaid taking over a WR1 role like Travis Kelce have dissipated. While he leads the team in targets, the numbers have been extremely modest. Kincaid isn’t even a weekly fantasy starter right now, more of a matchup-dependent player.

This is a bad matchup. The Jets have been a top defense by all measures, and they are especially good against the pass. New York is second in total passing yards and yards per attempt allowed, trailing only Tennessee. They have allowed the third-least fantasy points to tight ends.

Kincaid is a player who hasn’t seen a big second-year leap yet and has a really tough matchup. He is best left on your bench unless you truly don’t have another option.

#2024-fantasy-football #start-sit-decision