Fantasy Football Week 6 Start/Sit Decisions: Tyrone Tracy vs. Joe Mixon, Antonio Gibson, J.K. Dobbins, Javonte Williams
Ted breaks down whether to start Tyrone Tracy over other fantasy football running backs with Devin Singletary sidelined.
Heading into Week 6, the FantasySP team has you covered with all your fantasy football start/sit questions! Check out this article from Mark Morales and the entire Start/Sit section for breakdowns of some of the toughest players this week. However, if you clicked on this article looking for answers about Tyrone Tracy, you’re already in the right place! Let’s break down who the rookie should be starting over with Devin Singletary out again in Week 6.
Looking for more help with your toughest fantasy football Start/Sit decisions? Be sure to check out the FantasySP Start/Sit Tool!
Tyrone Tracy Week 6 Fantasy Outlook
The obvious place to look to see what to expect from Tracy is last week. The fifth-round rookie served as the Giants’ lead back with Devin Singletary sidelined by a groin injury, and we can expect him to do the same this week. However, Tracy was not alone in Week 5, as sophomore Eric Gray also played a noteworthy role. Gray equaled Tracy in routes and saw four targets to the rookie’s two. He saw just four carries, but three of those four were at the goal line. If we want to be optimistic, the fact that Gray went zero for three with a fumble on those goal-line looks does mean Tracy might get a shot there this week, but it’s absolutely not guaranteed.
Tracy was still productive despite Gray’s presence, however. He absolutely dominated rushes, including all but one after Gray’s fumble, racking up 129 yards on 18 carries. Tracy broke a couple of explosive runs but also remained remarkably consistent, gaining positive yardage on every single one of his carries. He finished the game with 2.6 yards over expected per carry and an elite 61% success rate.
That sets Tracy up excellently for a matchup with the Bengals on Sunday night. It’s worth noting that the Bengals' defense isn’t as favorable a matchup for running backs as you might think. While they do rank ninth in RB rush yards allowed per game and 13th in fantasy points, they actually rank as the sixth-worst matchup in terms of adjusted fantasy points allowed to running backs (this is what happens when you play Derrick Henry).
Still, even in an unideal matchup, Tracy projects well in terms of expected volume and efficiency. In a week with multiple teams on bye, he’s a backend RB2. Especially if he claims goal-line work after Gray’s Week 5 struggles, the rookie can easily have a productive outing this week.
Tyrone Tracy vs. Joe Mixon
This is actually a question I myself am debating in one league, so I’m not surprised to see it as one of the most popular questions in our Start/Sit Tool. According to the tool, Mixon has the edge, with 44% of managers choosing the vet compared to just 17% for the rookie, while an additional 27% of managers are starting both.
As for me, I’m going with Mixon, and that’s what I recommend you do too. There is some reason to be concerned that the former Bengal will be eased into his first week back from an ankle injury that caused him to miss the last three weeks. However, this situation is simply too good not to want a piece of it. The Texans are 6.5-point favorites against a Patriots team starting a brand-new rookie quarterback. Even if Mixon doesn’t see a full workload, we can bet he will see the most important touches … like near the goal line. With RB1 upside if he sees his usual volume and a real chance to bail himself out with a TD or two even on limited work, Mixon is the play here.
Start: Joe Mixon
Tyrone Tracy vs. Antonio Gibson
These two players are in very similar positions, as Gibson is also filling in for an injured starter with Rhamondre Stevenson sidelined. As a fun fact, they both also started their college careers at wide receiver. However, there are a few key differences that can help us make this decision.
Gibson likely has the edge in projected workload, as JaMycal Hasty is unlikely to see anything other than pure passing-down snaps. We’re hoping Gray cedes goal-line touches to Tracy, but we can already be fairly confident that Gibson will see them for the Patriots.
The only issue is that the Patriots may not see many goal-line chances. I’m fairly bullish on the chances that Drake Maye gives a spark to New England’s offense, but it might not happen right away in this tough matchup with the Texans' defense (which is an even tougher schedule-adjusted matchup for RBs than the Bengals’ defense). Tracy’s Giants also have an implied total six points higher than the Patriots, who are all the way down at a measly 15.5. With that in mind, Tracy is the play here.
Start: Tyrone Tracy
Tyrone Tracy vs. J.K. Dobbins
It’s hard to know what exactly to make of Dobbins. In Weeks 1 and 2, he was arguably the best rusher in the league while splitting work with Gus Edwards. In Weeks 3 and 4, his role expanded, but his efficiency plummeted.
After a bye last week, Dobbins is now clearly set to lead the Chargers’ backfield with Edwards on IR thanks to an ankle injury. Rookie Kimani Vidal, a popular preseason fantasy sleeper, will be active, but he’s not likely to cut significantly into Dobbins’ workload in his NFL debut.
The question is whether Dobbins will be able to provide the big plays (and therefore efficiency) he found in the first two weeks of the season. He does have a tough matchup with an elite Denver defense, although they are actually pretty much average in schedule-adjusted points allowed to running backs.
We also know that the Chargers desperately want to run the ball, which they should be able to do as three-point favorites this week. That game-script advantage (the Giants are 3.5-point underdogs) is enough for me to back Dobbins here despite potential efficiency concerns.
Start: J.K. Dobbins
Tyrone Tracy vs. Javonte Williams
We turn right around in this AFC West matchup to look at Dobbins’ opposite number: Javonte Williams. However, Williams lacks a lot of the factors that make Dobbins appealing as a fantasy play. Despite improving over the last few weeks, Javonte still ranks as a below-average rusher for the season.
He also has more competition, as Jaleel McLaughlin averages about a quarter of the Broncos’ rush attempts and routes. Denver also activated rookie Audric Estime from IR for this game, and he did see a couple of carries before getting injured in Week 1.
Meanwhile, Denver has just a 16.5-point implied total. The Chargers are a solid matchup for running backs, but the Broncos’ offense simply isn’t that good. You might say that the Giants’ offense isn’t that good, either, but they’ve been much better so far this season (-0.07 EPA per play vs. Denver's -0.16). Tracy is the play here.
Start: Tyrone Tracy
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