Finding the Top Week 12 Fantasy Football Pickups with Predictive Analytics: Will Dissly, Taysom Hill, Nick Westbrook-Ikhine

Perhaps the most powerful tool available here at Fantasy SP is Predictive Analytics, courtesy of the Fantasy Assistant. Today, I'm going to be talking about my favorite of those Predictive Analytics: Expected Waiver Interest.

Expected Waiver Interest (EWI) is a measure of how much interest each player will generate on waivers, generated before each week's waivers have been run. The EWI tool provides an EWI rating for each of the week's hottest wavier pickups, as well as a projection of how heavily rostered they will be after waivers are run. This can help you know what players to prioritize with your pickups and how much FAAB you'll need to get your top choices. 

The easiest way to understand the power of EWI is with examples, so let's take a look at this week's leaders in EWI:

Yuck. This is a straight-up disgusting week of waiver options. The four leaders in EWI are defenses, and the first skill position player on the list is Will Dissly. No offense to Dissly, but he’s not exactly the kind of player you expect to headline an entire week's worth of waiver options. With that said, let’s break down this week’s leaders and see if we can find any hidden gems.

Top Predicted Week 12 Fantasy Football Adds

TE Will Dissly, Los Angeles Chargers (27% EWI)

I know I was just rude to him in the intro, but Dissly is coming off a very solid outing in which he caught four of six targets for 80 yards and a touchdown. Justin Herbert is playing out of his mind right now, so any piece of this Chargers offense is intriguing. With that said, Dissly posted just a 52% route participation rate in Week 11 and has been above 70% in that metric once all season (back in Week 7). He’s not involved enough to be tempting except in leagues where tight ends have extra value.

TE Taysom Hill, New Orleans Saints (25% EWI)

I don’t think you need me to tell you that Hill is a must-add in any league where he is available. His EWI is only as low as it is because he is already rostered in well over 50% of leagues. Yes, he won’t score three touchdowns every week. But he has seen enough real receiving usage over the last few weeks to already be a borderline TE1 — combine that with his proven massive upside, and he obviously doesn’t belong on wavier wires. 

WR Nick Westbrook-Ikhine, Tennessee Titans (25% EWI)

I’ve been pumping the NWI hype over the last month, as he posted absolutely elite route participation rates (above 90%) in each of Weeks 8, 9, and 10. Ironically, his huge game this week (18.7 Half-PPR points thanks mostly to a 98-yard touchdown) came as his usage fell back to Earth with a 76% route participation rate. With that in mind, I don’t recommend chasing Westbrook-Ikhine’s big day in most formats. In deep leagues, he’s still worth considering, but without those stellar participation rates he’s just a mediocre WR2 on a very bad offense. 

WR Christian Watson, Green Bay Packers (24% EWI)

Watson caught all four of his targets for 150 yards on Sunday. Even better, he posted a new season-high with a 70% route participation rate. That number has been up and down all season as he splits snaps with Dontayvion Wicks, but posting his best mark of the season coming out of the Packers’ bye week is a great sign. He’s worth adding, and he is a viable boom-or-bust flex option as a deep target for Jordan Love.   

TE Jonnu Smith, Miami Dolphins (24% EWI)

Jonnu Smith just keeps earning targets in this Miami offense. He has now solidified his status as a fringe TE1, and he is absolutely a worthwhile pickup if he is still available in your league and you need help at the TE position. 

WR Elijah Moore, Cleveland Browns (23% EWI)

Elijah Moore, along with the rest of the Browns’ receivers, has benefitted hugely from Jameis Winston taking over in the Browns’ offense. Winston is averaging over 44 attempts per game on a very high 10.3-yard ADOT. Thanks to those numbers, Moore has turned his 20% target share into 126 air yards and 10.8 Half-PPR points per game. The slot receiver also seems to be Winston’s preferred target, with a team-high 25% target per route run rate despite mostly playing in three-receiver sets. He is definitely worth adding in deeper formats, although Winston’s volume will likely regress slightly in some tougher matchups coming up. 

TE Theo Johnson, New York Giants (23% EWI)

The fourth tight end on this list, Johnson is much more comparable to Dissly than Taysom or Jonnu, who are both already rostered in most leagues. A fourth-round rookie out of Penn State, Johnsons is currently available in over 95% of leagues. However, it does make sense to consider him as the Giants come out of their bye. Johnson has consistently run routes this season, but he ranks near the bottom of the league in targets per route run. If new Giants starting QB Tommy DeVito looks his way more often than Daniel Jones did, all those routes could suddenly turn into production. Johnson is still a more long-term/deep-league consideration, but the rookie is worth stashing in the hopes that his role expands as the Giants switch up their offense coming out of their bye.  

QB Derek Carr, New Orleans Saints (22% EWI)

Carr has been a top-15 fantasy quarterback in each of the last two weeks, and he’s done it with Marquez Valdes-Scantling as his top receiver. That’s impressive, but he still profiles as just a streamer quarterback for the rest of the season. I don’t recommend adding him in traditional 1-QB leagues heading into New Orleans’ bye in Week 12.

TE Noah Gray, Kansas City Chiefs (22% EWI)

Didn't we learn our lesson with Isaiah Likely? It is essentially impossible for one offense to support two viable fantasy tight ends. Gray had a solid outing in Week 11, but it was just his third finish in the top 30 weekly tight ends all season. He did post by far his highest route share of the season at 66%, which is something worth noting. But unless you think Gray is actually going to surpass Travis Kelce as Kansas City’s top TE, he’s not worth adding.

RB Roschon Johnson, Chicago Bears (22% EWI)

The final player to make this article, Johnson is actually one of my favorite pickups this week. As I broke down in my Week 12 RB Waiver article, his role was greatly expanded in the Bears’ first game under new OC Thoams Brown. He already carries value as the handcuff to D’Andre Swift, but an expanded role (including goal-line touches) could be enough for him to carve out fringe standalone value. Hopefully, this relatively EWI means we can all get him at a bargain, as he is a great player to target this week. 

Ted Chmyz is a fantasy football contributor for FantasySP. Find him on Twitter @Tchmyz for more fantasy content or to ask questions.