Fantasy Football Defense Start/Sit Week 18: Texans, Broncos, Chiefs, Steelers, Vikings, Lions

Hello and welcome to the final Fantasy Football Defense Start/Sit Breakdown of the season! I may have said the same thing last week, but this is the real final breakdown for those of you unfortunate enough to be playing in leagues where Week 18 is relevant. The issue with Week 18 is that tons of NFL teams, especially teams that have already locked up a given playoff seed, are incentivized to sit their best players. This makes lineup decisions extra difficult, and this is still true for defenses — will the Patriots have to face Josh Allen, or will they get a prime matchup with Mitch Trubisky? We’ll dive into this question and more … but first, let’s take a look back at Week 17’s results.

Week 17 was the championship round for every sane fantasy football league, and I’m very happy with how my picks performed with everything on the line. The Chargers (12 points) and Seahawks (16 points) both finished as top-six units after appearing in the Start section. Meanwhile, none of my three Sit picks finished as top-12 options. The Vikings (seven points) were fine, but you were very happy to sit both the Lions (zero points) and the Broncos (three points). Hopefully we can keep that momentum rolling into the craziness of Week 18. Let’s get started! 

For more help with your toughest Start/Sit decisions, check out FantasySP’s NFL Start/Sit tool!

Fantasy Football Defenses To Start Week 18

Houston Texans @ Tennessee Titans

As always, I’ll start the Start section by featuring a team from my DST Streaming Picks for the week. This week, the team that makes the most sense to feature again is the Texans. At the time of writing my streaming article, I wasn’t sure whether Houston planned on trying this week, as they are locked into the four seed in the AFC. But we have since learned that Houston plans to play their starters for at least part of their final game of the season. 

We probably still won’t see all of the best players for the Texans all game, but even the general vibe of playing to win instead of completely treating Week 18 as a bye week should have a decent impact. And that’s good enough for me to trust the Texans given they will be facing the Titans this week.

While I wish we could get a full game of Will Levis, who manages to rank second-worst in both turnover-worthy-play rate and sack rate, a half of him under center should be good enough … especially when the other half will be Mason Rudolph. The Titans have been one of the best offenses to target all season, and I trust even the Texans’ B-game to take care of business on Sunday.   

Denver Broncos vs. Kansas City Chiefs

This is just a quick reminder for anyone who hasn’t been paying attention: The Chiefs will not be playing their top players this week, as they have the AFC’s one seed locked up. That means no Patrick Mahomes, and yes Carson Wentz as the starter. An elite Broncos defense with everything to play for against Wentz (and other backups) with nothing to play for? Sign me up. 

Fantasy Football Defenses To Sit Week 18

Kansas City Chiefs @ Denver Broncos

Normally, a solid Chiefs defense against the Broncos’ uninspiring offense would be a decent option. But, just like with the other side of this fixture, we have to consider the context that Kansas City is openly planning on using this game as a pseudo-bye-week. We probably won’t see the Chiefs' very best defensive players in this one, and whoever we do see likely won’t be giving it their all.

Meanwhile, this is essentially a must-win game for the Broncos. If they lose, their chances of making the playoffs drop well below 50%. If they win, they’re in. This difference in motivation is reflected in the team totals for this game, as Denver is at 26.5 while the Chiefs are all the way down at 13.5. If your league plays in Week 18, you have to take the time to think twice about what might typically be good matchups, and this is one of them.

Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Cincinnati Bengals

I’ve been talking a lot about Week 18 weirdness in this article, but this is just a classic Sit recommendation. Both of these teams still have plenty to play for, as the Bengals are holding out hope for a Wild Card berth and the Steelers have a shot at the AFC North title. 

With that in mind, I have to recommend benching the Steelers’ defense this week. As I say every week, great offense beats great defense in the NFL. Yes, Pittsburgh has one of the toughest defenses in the league. But Cincinnati’s offense is also one of the league’s best, racking up over 28 points per game. There isn’t a defense in the league I would start against the Bengals’ offense right now, so it’s time to look elsewhere if you have been relying on the Steelers’ defense all season.

Minnesota Vikings @ Detroit Lions AND Detroit Lions vs. Minnesota Vikings

This is the game of the week by far, as the Lions and Vikings will meet on Sunday night for a game that will determine not just the NFC North title but the NFC’s one seed as well.  And it projects to be a shootout, with a massive total of 56.5. 

On paper, both of these defenses are solid. The Vikings lead the league in EPA per play, while the Lions aren’t far behind at seventh. But I shouldn’t have to tell you that both of these offenses are also absolutely elite. Meanwhile, despite their top rank in EPA, the Vikings rank fifth in passing yards allowed per game — you can bet that the Lions will take advantage of that. At the same time, Detroit’s defense has been absolutely decimated by injuries, giving up 32.5 points per game over their last four outings.

Neither of these defenses can be trusted in Week 18. Get them out of your lineup and sit back to enjoy the fireworks of this epic capper to the regular season. 

Ted Chmyz is a fantasy football contributor for FantasySP. Find him on Twitter @Tchmyz for more fantasy content or to ask questions.