Projecting Top Finishers in MLB Stats: Shohei Ohtani, Tarik Skubal, Aaron Judge, Paul Skenes, Yordan Alvarez and More

Baseball is back! Most MLB teams will open their seasons on Thursday, and everyone should have played a game by Saturday.

Before we get too deep into things, let's take a stab at projecting the top finishers in several stats. Let's dive right in!

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Hitting Stats

Batting Average

1. Bobby Witt Jr.

2. Luis Arraez

3. Vladimir Guerrero Jr.

4. Aaron Judge

5. Steven Kwan

There's some hitters here who were among the league leaders in 2024, and each one was inside the top-15 hitters, among qualified hitters.

I like Witt to repeat as the hitting champ. I think he's only going to get better as he gets older, which is a scary thought considering how good he is already.

Arraez has been among the league leaders in average for years now, and a full year in a good Padres' lineup should help him be there again. Guerrero was fantastic in 2024 and should be highly motivated to put up career-best numbers in 2025 with his future uncertain. 

Judge finished third in batting average last season, while also bopping 58 homers. I expect him to put up another elite hitting season in 2025.

Kwan started 2024 extremely hot and fizzled in the second half of the season. I expect steady production from him all season, and for him to be a .300+ hitter again.

Home Runs

1. Shohei Ohtani

2. Aaron Judge

3. Yordan Alvarez

4. Juan Soto

5. Pete Alonso

The battle at the top of the home run leaderboard should be an epic battle between Ohtani and Judge. I think Ohtani leads the way this season, but for those two to be the only two over 50 dingers.

Alvarez is another player capable of going over 50 homers, but I think he either just hits 40, or finishes just below that mark.

Soto and Alonso are a good bet for 35+ homers each in what is going to be a very good Mets' lineup. Having so much talent in the lineup is going to give the top of the order extra at-bats throughout the season, and it will lead several guys to massive home run totals.

RBIs

1. Aaron Judge

2. Shohei Ohtani

3. Yordan Alvarez

4. Pete Alonso

5. Jose Ramirez

Look at that, Judge and Ohtani are near the top of another hitting stat. Judge was the league leader a season ago, with Ohtani a decent ways behind him for second. Those two should lead the way again if they stay healthy all season.

Alvarez appears again here for me. The Astros' lineup might be a touch worse on paper than in 2024, but I have Alvarez turning in a career season.

Alonso is going to reap the reward of hitting behind Soto and Francisco Lindor. He could miss a couple weeks of play and still be among the league leaders in RBIs.

Rounding out my top five is Ramirez. The Guardians' lineup also looks a little worse on paper in 2025, but Ramirez always gets his, and I think he delivers another big fantasy season.

Stolen Bases

1. Elly De La Cruz

2. Shohei Ohtani

3. Jose Ramirez

4. Jazz Chisholm Jr. 

5. Corbin Carroll

The guy atop the stolen base leaderboard should come as no surprise. De La Cruz stole 67 bases last season, and should lead the league again in 2025.

Ohtani seriously can do it all can't he? He had 59 stolen bases last season, and is my guess for the only other player aside from De La Cruz to top 50 steals in 2025.

Ramirez stole 41 bases a season ago, and inside a worse lineup this year, I expect him to have even more in 2025.

Chisholm ended the 2024 season with 40 steals. He should top that number inside a good Yankees' lineup in 2025, as long as he's healthy.

Carroll “only” had 35 stolen bases last season. I expect a bounceback season from him, and think he's got a great chance of going over 40 stolen bases as well.

Pitching Stats

Wins

1. Tarik Skubal

2. Paul Skenes

3. Zack Wheeler

4. Garrett Crochet

5. Dylan Cease

I think Skubal is the best pitcher in baseball going into 2025, so I have him at my top spot. Having a pretty good Tigers' team around him helps his cause, and I expect him to build on his great 2024 campaign, not regress.

Skenes was fantastic in his rookie season, and I think he will challenge Skubal for the game's top pitcher honor. Not having the best Pirates' team around him might hurt his chances at wins occasionally, and that's why I have him below Skubal.

Wheeler has been a pretty good model of consistency over the years, and I think he's primed for another good season in 2025. Of the two pitchers I took before him, Wheeler has the best team around him, which will help him earn more wins, even if he's not quite as good as Skubal and Skenes.

Crochet went from the White Sox to the Red Sox this offseason - enough said. Honestly though, Crochet could put his name in the hat of “best MLB pitcher” in 2025. I ultimately think his innings will be managed a bit, and that's what will hold him back from finishing atop some stat leaderboards.

I took Cease in my fifth spot. He won 14 games a season ago, and should be more comfortable in his second year with San Diego. I have him getting to 15 wins this season.

ERA - Starting Pitchers

1. Paul Skenes

2. Tarik Skubal

3. Chris Sale

4. Jacob deGrom

5. Zack Wheeler

Skenes and Skubal will lead the way in ERA as well, but I have Skenes taking the title this time. One blowup outing could be the difference between those two in 2025.

I'll take the ERA champ from 2024 in my No. 3 slot. I think Sale will regress a bit, but still post one of the top marks among starting pitchers.

deGrom is a bit of a forgotten name when it comes to the top ERA debate. Injuries have slowed him over his career, and me putting him on my top-five list is more me hoping we get to see a full season of him in 2025.

I got Wheeler again in my fifth spot. He was third among qualified pitchers in 2025, and I expect him to regress, but still be a top-five finisher in the stat.

Saves

1. Emmanuel Clase

2. Devin Williams

3. Raisel Iglesias

4. Josh Hader

5. Edwin Diaz

This was one of the toughest stats to project, because saves can be so random, and you don't even necessarily need to be on a great team to rack up a ton of saves.

I have Clase at the top of the leaderboard. He saved 47 games last season, and while I expect that number to drop a bit in 2025, I got Clase leading the way.

Williams joined the Yankees this offseason, and it's going to help him put up big numbers in the save department. As long as he stays healthy, I have him going for at least 40 saves.

In maybe a bit of a surprise to many, I have Iglesias in my third spot. I have the Braves as one of the better teams in the league this season, and it should help the veteran record a ton of saves.

In the fourth spot, I have Hader. He had a “down” 2024, but still struck out a ton of batters and racked up 34 saves. I expect Hader to earn more saves in 2025.

In the fifth spot, I have Diaz. He's a bit of a risky pick after an up-and-down 2024 season, but on a stacked team, he should rack up a ton of saves.