Sell High Fantasy Baseball Trade Candidates with High Trade Values: Seth Lugo and David Fry

The FantasySP Fantasy Baseball Trade Value Chart is something that’s updated several times a week and can help fantasy owners determine exactly how valuable a player is at any given time.

I was perusing the list today and came across two names in the top 50 who definitely weren’t part of that group to begin the season. It got me thinking whether or not it’d be a good time to sell high with those players, so let’s discuss just that

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Seth Lugo Fantasy Outlook

Lugo was the first name that caught my attention. He currently sits 23rd overall - he’s the sixth starting pitcher to appear on the list.

Lugo is enjoying a career season in his age 34 season, so it’s no surprise his value is so high right now. Across 13 starts, Lugo is 9-1 with a 2.13 earned run average. He’s got 71 strikeouts over 84 1/3 innings.

For his nine-year career, Lugo has a 49-32 record, 3.34 ERA and 719 strikeouts over 725 1/3 innings. He’s only made 77 starts among his 314 total appearances, so he was a bit of a late bloomer as a starter.

Lugo already has more wins than any season in his career. His ERA is 0.53 better than any season, even though his strikeouts per nine innings mark is the third-lowest of his career.

Lugo was an afterthought in fantasy drafts, with an Average Draft Position mark of 241.19. That means he was a waiver wire option in a bunch of leagues, but has served as one of the top fantasy starting pitchers to this point.

Because he was likely scooped up off the waiver wire, you’d think his trade value isn’t that high. But it’s difficult to find great fantasy SPs, so you’d probably be surprised what Lugo could net you in a trade.

I was curious how the new FantasySP AI Expert (which can be found under the Fantasy Assistant page) viewed Lugo. The AI Expert can break down any player for an in-depth overview and help you determine the best waiver wire options by choosing up to five players to break down at once. The AI Expert can also provide recaps for the past week, yesterday and the current week of fantasy play, not to mention, access to real-time player news across any sport.

Here’s the excerpt I got when I put Lugo through the player research tool:

“Seth Lugo has had a fantastic start to the 2024 season, significantly outperforming his career averages in ERA and WHIP. His control has been exceptional, leading to a low walk rate and a high strikeout-to-walk ratio. Lugo’s ability to induce double plays and maintain a low ERA has been key to his success.

Lugo's consistency in delivering quality starts makes him a highly reliable fantasy asset. He has already set personal records in strikeouts and innings pitched per game, and his strong performance has been a significant factor in the Royals' early success. With no injury concerns, Lugo's outlook for the rest of the season remains very positive.

However, fantasy owners should be cautious of potential regression, as maintaining a sub-two ERA over an entire season is challenging. Nevertheless, Lugo's performance thus far suggests he is capable of sustaining high-level production. Given his current form and the Royals' solid support, Lugo is a must-start in all formats and a potential buy-high candidate if you need a reliable SP.

Overall, the news surrounding Lugo is overwhelmingly positive, with multiple analysts and commentators praising his performances. Expect him to continue being a top-tier fantasy pitcher for the remainder of the season, barring any unforeseen circumstances.”

So while I view him as a sell high candidate, the AI Expert likes him enough still to be a sought-after option in trades. I think a lot of fantasy owners would share the same sentiment.

You probably aren’t going to find any players on the Trade Value Chart ranked above Lugo that a fantasy owner would move for Lugo. However, I think you’d be able to land a good deal of the players ranked right behind him, or possibly get a couple solid players in return. 

I see some regression coming at some point for Lugo, so I’d prefer to sell high on him. Lugo could help you land a hitting position you’ve been lacking at, or maybe land a couple average starting pitchers who would give your fantasy team some more depth. Give it a try and see what you come up with!

Make sure to run things through the FantasySP Fantasy Baseball Trade Analyzer before proposing or hitting accept on a deal.

David Fry Fantasy Outlook

Fry is another player that caught my eye while running through the Trade Value Chart. He currently sits 42nd on the list, even though he was a waiver wire target just a couple weeks ago.

Fry is playing in just his second MLB season. In 42 games this year, Fry has a .342 average and .479 on-base percentage. He’s got 14 extra-base hits (eight homers) among his 38 total hits. Fry has 27 RBIs and runs scored, four stolen bases, 24 walks and 26 strikeouts.

Fry has been one of the biggest surprises of the MLB season so far. A year ago, in what was his rookie season, Fry played 57 games and had a .238 average and .319 OBP. Fry has already passed a number of his stats from a season ago despite playing in less games.

For as great as he’s been this season, many fantasy owners are wondering if Fry can keep things up. I think everybody knows his average and OBP will drop as the season rolls along, but at this point, an average above .300 seems pretty reasonable.

Here’s what the FantasySP AI Expert had to say about Fry:

“David Fry has been a revelation this season for the Cleveland Guardians, showing substantial improvements across almost every major statistical category compared to his previous year. His batting average, OBP, and slugging percentage have all skyrocketed, resulting in a stellar OPS of 1.092. Fry's power numbers have doubled, and his ability to get on base has made him a critical player in Cleveland's lineup.

Fry's hot streak in May, where he reached base in 16 of his last 20 plate appearances and achieved a .500 OBP, indicates that his breakout is not a fluke. With his recent recognition as an All-Star and his inclusion in historic company alongside legends like Babe Ruth and Barry Bonds, Fry's stock is at an all-time high.

Given his current performance and the positive sentiment surrounding him, Fry is a must-have player in fantasy leagues, especially in Head to Head Points formats where his consistent production can provide a significant boost. His ability to contribute across multiple categories, including home runs, RBIs, runs, and even stolen bases, makes him a versatile and valuable asset.

In summary, Fry is outperforming expectations by a wide margin and shows no signs of slowing down. His current form and historical achievements suggest that he will continue to be a top-tier fantasy player for the remainder of the season. If you have the opportunity to acquire him, whether through waivers or trade, he should be a high priority target in your fantasy league.”

A lot like Lugo, Fry’s great start to the season should be appealing enough to fantasy owners to get a pretty decent return for the hitter. Again, you might not get a player ranked above him, but for a player that was a waiver wire option at the start of the season, getting anything at all for him is a big win.

Regression should come at some point, and I’d try to capitalize now before Fry starts to regress. Throw his name on the trade block and see what kinds of offers filter in.

He might be able to land you a quality starting pitcher, or a player package that adds needed depth to your team.