Analyzing Early Fantasy Football ADPs | Top 10 Picks So Far

The NFL season is still a ways off, but really, it’s never too early to talk fantasy football!

Today, I wanted to take a look at the FantasySP Average Draft Position list and offer some thoughts on how the top-10 picks are shaking out. 

Get ready for draft season! Practice Mock Drafts, check out ADPs and get advice for trades with our trade analyzer.

Pick 1 - Christian McCaffrey

McCaffrey was the leading scorer among skill position players in non-PPR fantasy football leagues a season ago, so it’s no surprise to see him going first overall.

In 2023, he rushed for 1,459 yards and 14 touchdowns, while catching 67 passes for 564 yards and seven more scores. 

McCaffrey topped 2,000 total yards for the second time in his career and looks to have plenty in the tank yet despite being 28 years old - which is when a lot of fantasy owners believe fantasy running backs start to fall off. There’s also some injury risk with McCaffrey, but his upside is simply too good to pass on with the first pick.

Unless he is dealing with an injury before the season, McCaffrey should remain the top draft pick for the 2024 season through the start of the season.

Pick 2 - CeeDee Lamb

Lamb is the second pick and was the highest-scoring fantasy wide receiver a season ago. He was the top fantasy player in PPR leagues.

In 17 games, Lamb had 135 receptions, 1,749 yards and 12 touchdowns. He added 113 yards and two scores on the ground.

Lamb has increased his total yardage in each of his first four seasons in the NFL - his total touchdowns have gone up the past two seasons (after having six scores in years one and two).

Lamb might not be able to keep that trend going forever, but he’s still clearly the team’s No. 1 receiving threat. Barring any injury setbacks, Lamb should be in the hunt to be the top fantasy receiver again this season.

Pick 3 - Tyreek Hill

Some of Lamb’s competition for the top fantasy receiver is Hill. The Miami receiver is the third player off draft boards so far.

In 16 contests last year, Hill had 119 grabs, 1,799 yards and 13 touchdowns. Hill has at least 1,700 total yards in back-to-back seasons, and has scored at least seven total touchdowns in all eight years of his NFL career. 

There were really no massive changes to the Dolphins’ skill players (no, Odell Beckham Jr. is not a major threat anymore) so Hill should be in store for another massive season. As I mentioned to start off the Hill writeup, he’ll be in contention for the top fantasy receiver, and getting him at pick three already might be a bit of a steal.

Pick 4 - Ja'Marr Chase

Chase is the fourth pick off fantasy draft boards. Chase dealt with some injuries last season, and also was without quarterback Joe Burrow for several games and Chase was a borderline top-10 fantasy receiver as a result.

In 16 games, caught 100 passes for 1,216 yards and seven scores. It marked the second straight season in which he missed some game action, so I’m a touch surprised to see Chase being taken this high on all ADP lists.

When Chase and Burrow are healthy, they are one of the best passing duos in the league. The team’s receiving corps got a little worse this offseason, so even more work should be on Chase’s plate, so that offsets a lot of the injury concerns.

I still wouldn’t be surprised to see Chase’s ADP slide a little bit before the start of the season.

Pick 5 - Justin Jefferson

Jefferson is the fifth pick off fantasy boards right now. He also dealt with injuries last season and didn’t finish as a top-10 WR as a result.

In 10 games, Jefferson had 68 catches, 1,074 yards and five touchdowns. His per game averages were great, but not playing in several games was obviously not ideal for fantasy owners.

It’s easy to be scared off a player because of injuries, but they can happen to anyone and that was really the first time in Jefferson’s career where he’s dealt with injuries. 

What fantasy owners need to be more scared of is the offense around Jefferson. Aaron Jones is a better running back, and the pass catchers are mostly the same, but Kirk Cousins is gone and Sam Darnold and J.J. McCarthy are in. Darnold hasn’t had much NFL success, and we don’t know how McCarthy will fare in his rookie season. 

Jefferson showed he can excel with below-average quarterbacks at the helm, but having to do it for a full season is a different story, and I’m guessing his ADP will drop a touch before the season kicks off in September. He’ll still be a first-round pick, but maybe go behind a few of the players we are about to talk about.

Pick 6 - Breece Hall

Hall is the second back off draft boards right now. He was seventh in non-PPR leagues and second in PPR formats a season ago.

In 17 games, Hall rushed for 994 yards and five touchdowns. He caught 76 passes for 591 yards and four more scores.

Of course, Aaron Rodgers was supposed to lead the Jets last season, but that only lasted a couple plays. Hall showed he could still be a big-time fantasy threat, but now some of his PPR value might go away if Rodgers can stay healthy all season.

I’m not as high on Hall as others appear to be, and think he needs to go closer to pick 10 than pick five. We’ll see if others agree in time.

Pick 7 - Bijan Robinson

Robinson is the third running back off draft boards. He was a top-10 fantasy back in PPR formats and just outside the top 10 in non-PPR formats last season, despite being heavily underutilized by then-coach Arthur Smith.

In his rookie campaign, Robinson rushed for 976 yards and four scores, while catching 58 passes for 487 yards and four touchdowns.

With a new coaching staff and offensive players around him, Robinson is going to be a trendy pick early in fantasy drafts. As long as Cousins can stay healthy, Robinson will have a chance to be a top-three fantasy back, even if he isn’t scoring a bunch of touchdowns.

I think Robinson’s ADP will be higher than Hall’s by the time the season kicks off, and I also wouldn’t be shocked if fantasy owners drafted Robinson over WR like Jefferson and Chase.

Pick 8 - Amon-Ra St. Brown

St. Brown is the next fantasy receiver to go off draft boards. He finished as WR3 in PPR leagues a season ago.

In 16 games, ARSB had 119 receptions, 1,515 yards and 10 scores. He’s seen his touches and total yardage increase in his three NFL seasons, while his 10 scores last year was a new career high.

It will be pretty much the same offensive group of players around in Detroit, and there’s really no reason to expect St. Brown not to be able to replicate his catches and yardage from a season ago. Touchdown production can always go up or down, but unless Jameson Williams takes off or Jahmyr Gibbs turns into a touchdown machine, I still like St. Brown to have a crack at double-digit scores.

Pick 9 - A.J. Brown

Brown is the next receiver off draft boards. He was WR5 in PPR formats a season ago.

In 17 games, Brown had 106 catches, 1,456 yards and seven touchdowns. He had a very similar season to 2023, but four less touchdowns.

Philly’s pass catchers are pretty much unchanged (at least the starters), but adding Saquon Barkley at running back should definitely be worrisome to the Brown and DeVonta Smith owners out there. 

Still, if Brown can replicate last season’s numbers again, taking him at this point in the draft will leave fantasy owners happy. There might just be a little more wiggle room to see his production fall off this season, so his ADP might dip a touch before the season.

Pick 10 - Puka Nacua

Nacua was arguably the biggest breakout star in the NFL last season. He was WR4 in PPR formats.

Nacua had 105 receptions, 1,486 yards and six touchdowns as a pass catcher a season ago. He had over 1,500 total yards.

It’s surprising to see Nacua this high on the ADP list, but at the same time, it really could be higher. Fantasy owners are wondering if he’ll be able to replicate last season with Cooper Kupp and late-season bloomer Demarcus Robinson around him. A full season out of Kyren Williams could also eat into the fantasy output from Nacua.

I’m not that worried about the players around Nacua and think if his yardage goes down, he could make up for it with a few more touchdowns. I can see Nacua’s ADP going up more than down before the season kicks off.