NBA Props Dec. 31: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Kristaps Prozingis, Victor Wembanyama and More

It's the last day of the year and the penultimate regular season Sunday of NFL football. I'll be honest: I won't be watching or paying attention to any NBA today. Luckily, I did my research ahead of time and came up with a handful of players with great (or poor) matchups today primed for big (or quiet) performances.

This is NOT a list of winners; it is simply a collection of good or bad matchups with reason to think the players will go over or under. Anything can happen in any game. Take these stats and opinions along with your own analysis and research before placing any wagers.

Advanced stats and pace numbers are from NBA.com. Defensive rankings against positions are from FantasySP and Fantasy Pros. Lines are from FanDuel and correct as of 11 a.m. Eastern Standard Time on Dec. 31.

 

Clint Capela, C Atlanta Hawks @ Washington Wizards

OVER/UNDER 12.5 Rebounds

I won’t stop. Until they change something, I’m not going to stop including the Wizards in this column. They are maybe the best team to face when looking for stats, as they play at the fastest pace in the league (with Indiana) and are one of the worst defensive teams.

Washington gets beat up on the inside more than anywhere else: They are giving up the most points per game and rebounds per game to centers. The closest team in each category is averaging about two less than the Wizards.

That’s good news for Capela, who leads the Hawks in rebounding average at 10.5. The next closest player on the team is averaging over three rebounds less per game. This number is asking Capela to get two rebounds than his average, but the matchup and pace point toward the over.

Confidence Rating for Capela OVER 12.5 Rebounds: 4 out of 5

 

Jordan Poole, G Washington Wizards vs Atlanta Hawks

OVER/UNDER 19.5 Points, 2.5 3-Pointers Made

In the same game, Poole has a somewhat rare opportunity. As fast as Washington plays, they are going to be slowed down significantly by a lot of teams. With Atlanta also moving at a high rate (fifth-fastest in the league), this game will feature a lot of possessions and scoring opportunities.

Atlanta allows the fifth-most points per game to guards and the most to shooting guards. The Wizards are bad, but someone must shoot and score, and that has fallen on Poole and Kyle Kuzma. Poole is second on the team to Kuzma in scoring and shot attempts.

Poole takes 6.6 3-pointers per game and makes two of them. Atlanta is a bottom-six team in terms of 3-pointers allowed to guards and shooting guards (meaning they give up among the most threes).

In a fast game with a light opponent, Poole has a chance to rack up stats. These numbers want him to slightly go above his season averages, but I’m confident given the circumstances.

Confidence Ratings for Poole

OVER 19.5 Points: 4 out of 5

OVER 2.5 3-Pointers: 4 out of 5

 

Kristaps Porzingis, C Boston Celtics @ San Antonio Spurs

OVER/UNDER 20.5 Points, 7.5 Rebounds, 28.5 Points+Rebounds

Porzingis is shooting nearly 54% from the field after previously topping out at 49.8. The 12.8 shots per game he’s averaging would be the lowest since his rookie year. Porzingis is shooting less but scoring more efficiently on a championship-level team.

He is third on the team in shot attempts and scoring (20.3) while sitting second in rebounding (7.1). The Spurs are giving up the fourth-most points and rebounds per game to centers (with similar results against power forwards).

Pace is on Porzingis’s side, as the Celtics play at the sixth-slowest speed while San Antonio is third fastest. There will be more possessions than a typical Boston game, and the great matchup means they will be extra valuable for the Latvian big man.

A faster game against a weak defensive team leads me toward the over in each stat category. These numbers are asking Porzingis to slightly go over his averages, and I’m confident in that ability.

Confidence Ratings for Porzingis

OVER 20.5 Points: 5 out of 5

OVER 7.5 Rebounds: 4 out of 5

OVER 28.5 Points+Rebounds: 5 out of 5

 

Victor Wembanyama, C San Antonio Spurs vs Boston Celtics

OVER/UNDER 17.5 Points

Take what we just talked about in this Spurs/Celtics matchup and flip it. The Spurs will likely be slowed down by the Celtics, leaving Wemby less chances to score the ball than usual.

On top of that, Boston is a very good defensive team, allowing the seventh-least points per game to centers and second least to power forwards.

The young big man has shown both great flashes and rookie struggles, and Boston isn’t a team to expect a big game against. This number is low, surely due to the matchup (Wembanyama averages 18.8 points per game), but I’m still going with the under.

Confidence Rating for Wembanyama UNDER 17.5 Points: 3 out of 5

 

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, PG Oklahoma City Thunder vs Brooklyn Nets

OVER/UNDER 33.5 Points

The pace isn’t in SGA’s favor, but the matchup is ripe for the picking. Brooklyn allows the eighth-most points per game to guards and fourth-most to point guards.

Gilgeous-Alexander is a true superstar; he dwarfs second-place Jalen Williams in both shot attempts and points on the Thunder. This is a chance for a big performance from one of the premiere offensive players in the game.

This is a big number, asking SGA to get two more points than his average (31.4), but the matchup sets up well for a huge day.

Confidence Rating for Gilgeous-Alexander OVER 33.5 Points: 4 out of 5