NBA Props Jan. 1: Giannis Antetokounmpo, Tyrese Haliburton, Fred VanVleet and More

Happy New Year's Day, friends! It's a huge college football day (as it is every year), but the NBA train keeps chugging along. Let's look at a handful of players with great matchups and reasons to expect them to go over in one or more stat categories.

This is NOT a list of winners; it is simply a collection of good matchups with reason to think the players will go over. Anything can happen in any game. Take these stats and opinions along with your own analysis and research before placing any wagers.

Advanced stats and pace numbers are from NBA.com. Defensive rankings against positions are from FantasySP and Fantasy Pros. Lines are from FanDuel and correct as of 1 p.m. Eastern Standard Time.

 

Giannis Antetokounmpo, PF Milwaukee Bucks vs Indiana Pacers

OVER/UNDER 36.5 Points, 12.5 Rebounds, 49.5 Points+Rebounds

These teams have already played three times and play back-to-back games against each other on Monday and Wednesday. This glut of matchups can partly be blamed on the In-Season Tournament, which saw these teams face off in the semifinals.

In the three games, Giannis has averaged nearly 52 points per game (including hitting 64 and 54 points) and 12 rebounds per game. Both teams play at top-five paces, and Indiana allows the most points per game to power forwards and seventh-most for centers.

It’s a great matchup, and we’ve seen the superstar excel against these Pacers; I’m not going to overthink it.

Confidence Ratings for Giannis

OVER 36.5 Points: 4 out of 5

OVER 12.5 Rebounds: 4 out of 5

OVER 49.5 Points+Rebounds: 5 out of 5

 

Tyrese Haliburton, PG Indiana Pacers @ Milwaukee Bucks

OVER/UNDER 25.5 Points

Same game, same idea. Haliburton’s averages in the three games against the Bucks: 26 points and 8.3 assists per game. He hasn’t been as dominant as Giannis, but Haliburton has had three good games against the Bucks.

Haliburton has been on fire recently with back-to-back 20-point, 20-assist games. I see him continuing to roll, as Milwaukee allows the fifth-most points per game to point guards. Another superstar in a fast game with a great matchup: I’ll take the over.

Confidence Rating for Haliburton OVER 25.5 Points: 4 out of 5

 

Nikola Jokic, C Denver Nuggets vs Charlotte Hornets

OVER/UNDER 26.5 Points, 13.5 Rebounds, 39.5 Points+Rebounds

I tried getting cute Friday and picked Jokic to go over on assists, rebounds, and the combination of the two. It didn’t go well. Let’s go back to basics and focus on points and rebounds, the main concerns for star big men.

Charlotte plays at the 17th-fastest pace in the league, nothing special, but Denver is the second slowest team. Even the modest Hornets should speed up the Nuggets a little bit.

The matchup is the main star here, as the Hornets allow the second-most points per game and rebounds per game to centers, better than only the lowly Wizards. Charlotte can’t stop big men, and there aren’t many better ones than Jokic right now.

These numbers are asking him to come in near his season averages (26.1 points, 12.3 rebounds), and given the matchup, I’m confident in the former MVP’s chances.

Confidence Ratings for Jokic

OVER 26.5 Points: 4 out of 5

OVER 13.5 Rebounds: 4 out of 5

OVER 39.5 Points+Rebounds: 5 out of 5

 

John Collins, PF Utah Jazz vs Dallas Mavericks

OVER/UNDER 6.5 Rebounds

Big men thrive against Dallas: The Mavericks are just behind Charlotte, giving up the third-most points and rebounds per game to centers. Dallas plays at the eighth-fastest pace in the league while the Jazz are 14th, not a big difference but slightly in favor of the over.

Collins is tied for second on his team in rebounding average (8). He isn’t a star, but Collins plays the third-most minutes per game and is a key cog for the Jazz.

Collins had exactly his average of eight rebounds when these teams matched up on Dec. 6. This number is asking him for less than that, and I like his chances.

Confidence Rating for Collins OVER 6.5 Rebounds: 5 out of 5

 

Fred VanVleet, PG Houston Rockets vs Detroit Pistons

OVER/UNDER 19.5 Points

The Pistons finally broke their 28-game losing streak. That must be a relief, but opponents won’t feel sympathy, and a silky pro like VanVleet will show up ready to torment the young Detroit guards.

VanVleet is tied for second on the team in shot attempts and scoring (17.4). Detroit allows the fourth-most points per game to guards and second most to point guards. This is a great chance for a scoring guard to rack up points.

Detroit is the seventh-fastest team in the league while the Rockets are third slowest. The speed will likely max out for Houston in this one, creating more possessions.

This number is asking VanVleet to go two points over his average, but I like his chances against a poor, inexperienced Detroit team.

Confidence Rating for VanVleet OVER 19.5 Points: 5 out of 5