NBA Props Jan. 2: Domantas Sabonis, Miles Bridges, Tyrese Maxey and Jaren Jackson Jr.
Four players today with matchups pointing toward them going over or under in specific stat categories.
We are into 2024, but the NBA season doesn't worry about the flip of the calendar. The teams are still grinding out games with around six weeks or so until the All-Star break. Let's take a look at four guys today we can expect to have a big or quiet game due to the matchup at hand.
This is NOT a list of winners; it is simply a collection of good/bad matchups with reason to think the players will go over/under. Anything can happen in any game. Take these stats and opinions along with your own analysis and research before placing any wagers.
Advanced stats and pace numbers are from NBA.com. Defensive rankings against positions are from FantasySP and Fantasy Pros. Lines are from FanDuel and correct as of 1 p.m. Eastern Standard Time on Jan. 2.
Tyrese Maxey, PG Philadelphia 76ers vs Chicago Bulls
OVER/UNDER 25.5 Points
These teams played on Saturday, and even with Joel Embiid out, Maxey scored just 20 points (leading the 76ers). When they matched up on Dec. 18 with Embiid playing, the big man led all scorers with 40 points and Maxey added 29.
With one example on both sides of the numbers, I’m going to trust the matchup. Philly plays at a league-average pace, but Chicago is the slowest team in the league by a considerable amount. The Bulls slow down everyone they play with.
More importantly for Maxey, Chicago allows the least points per game to both guards and shooting guards. This is a team that grinds the game and has strong defense at the point of attack, led by All-NBA defensive guard Alex Caruso.
Embiid looks like he will play today, and this number is only asking Maxey to reach his scoring average of 26.1 points per game. Given the matchup and the speed, though, I’m counting on Chicago to hold the lead guard in check tonight.
Confidence Rating for Maxey UNDER 25.5 Points: 4 out of 5
Jaren Jackson Jr. PF Memphis Grizzlies vs San Antonio Spurs
OVER/UNDER 6.5 Rebounds
Bismack Biyombo is the only listed center on the Memphis roster. Jackson is left to soak up a lot of time as the biggest man on the court when Biyombo isn’t holding down the middle.
San Antonio struggles against big men, allowing the fourth-most points per game and rebounds per game to centers. They are only a little better against power forwards, putting Jackson in position to have a big night against the Spurs.
Memphis is a league-average team in terms of pace, though they may still be adapting to life with Ja Morant after his recent return. San Antonio is the third fastest team in the league and likely to engage the Grizzlies in more of an up-and-down game.
Jackson averages 5.5 rebounds per game. This number wants him to get more than his average, but the matchup points toward a higher output. When these teams played earlier in the season, Jackson only had five rebounds; I’m counting on a bigger game today.
Confidence Rating for Jackson OVER 6.5 Rebounds: 4 out of 5
Miles Bridges, F Charlotte Hornets @ Sacramento Kings
OVER/UNDER 22.5 Points
Charlotte is 17th in pace while the Kings are 10th, a small positive for Bridges but not a huge gap like between the 76ers and Bulls, for example. This is more about the matchup with Sacramento.
The Kings allow an above-average amount of points to forwards in general and the eighth-most to power forwards. While Domantas Sabonis (coming soon!!) is a great offensive player, he’s not known for his defensive prowess.
Leaving aside the injured LaMelo Ball, Bridges is second on the team in both scoring (19.7 PPG) and field goal attempts. He has been productive on a struggling Charlotte team, and I expect that to continue in a good matchup.
This number is asking Bridges to go over his season average, but I’m confident in his ability against Sacramento.
Confidence Rating for Bridges OVER 22.5 Points: 4 out of 5
Domantas Sabonis, PF Sacramento Kings vs Charlotte Hornets
OVER/UNDER 21.5 Points, 13.5 Rebounds, 34.5 Points+Rebounds
In the same game, the pace numbers slightly go against Sabonis, but it’s not a large gap. The matchup against Charlotte is about as sweet as it gets, though. (There's probably some joke here about Hornets and honey, but we're just off of a long weekend; I don't have the energy.)
The Hornets allow the third-most points per game and fifth-most rebounds per game to power forwards; they give up the second-most in both categories to centers. Charlotte is one of the worst defensive teams in the league against big men.
Sabonis is second on the team behind De’Aaron Fox in both points per game and shots per game. He is the best playmaker on Sacramento, evidenced by leading the team with 7.5 assists per game. He is an offensive focal point with a great matchup.
Averaging 19.4 points and 12.3 rebounds per game, these numbers want more out of Sabonis than his usual output, but given the matchup, I’m going with the overs for the Lithuanian big man.
Confidence Ratings for Sabonis
OVER 21.5 Points: 4 out of 5
OVER 13.5 Rebounds: 4 out of 5
OVER 34.5 Points+Rebounds: 5 out of 5
