Last-Minute Week 10 Start/Sit Decisions | Should You Start Khalil Shakir, Gabe Davis, Jerry Jeudy, Jaleel McLaughlin and Others?
The 10th week of the NFL season is just about in the books, but a Monday night matchup between the hot Denver Broncos and reeling Buffalo Bills still remains.
There’s a handful of trending decisions on the FantasySP start/sit tool, so instead of doing a couple stories, we’ll break down decisions you might have at the quarterback, running back, wide receiver and tight end positions in one place. Let’s get to it!
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Quarterback Breakdown
These two teams are pretty healthy coming into the contest, which is exactly what you want to hear if you have one of these quarterbacks on your fantasy team.
Josh Allen is one of the top fantasy quarterbacks in the NFL, and was one of the top options for this week. Russell Wilson had an average projection because of the stingy defense he’s facing.
Allen has topped 200 passing yards in all but one contest. He’s thrown at least one touchdown in every game and has six games with multiple touchdown passes. Allen adds a rushing element as well, with over 35 yards in four contests, along with five rushing scores. Allen has had a problem with turnovers, already throwing nine interceptions and fumbling three times.
Wilson only has topped 200 passing yards three times, but in two of those games he had over 300 yards. He’s also thrown at least one touchdown in every game, while having five contests with two or more passing scores. Wilson has topped 30 rushing yards on four occasions, but hasn’t run for a touchdown yet. He’s thrown just four interceptions, but has fumbled five times.
Verdict: I like Allen over Wilson this week - and most weeks for that matter. The turnovers are annoying, but he’s one of the top fantasy quarterbacks for a reason, start him.
Running Back Breakdown
There’s a pretty good stable of running backs that will be on display tonight.
Buffalo’s James Cook had the best projection, so we’ll focus on the Bills’ backs first. Cook leads the Bills with 130 touches - rushing 108 times for 506 yards and a touchdown and catching 22 of his 26 targets for an additional 211 yards and a score. The yardage and touches are great, but the lack of touchdowns concerns fantasy owners.
Latavius Murray has 53 touches - rushing 42 times for 147 yards and two scores and adding 79 receiving yards on 11 catches and 12 targets. Those are decent numbers for a No. 2 back, but nothing special.
Leonard Fournette could make his season debut on Monday night after signing to the team’s practice squad a couple weeks back. If he plays, he could get some short-yardage and goal-line work, which was being split between Cook and Murray this season.
Javonte Williams is Denver’s lead back and is coming off a 30-touch outing the last time the team played. He’s up to 107 touches on the season, rushing 90 times for 357 yards and four scores, while adding 78 yards and a touchdown on 17 grabs and 22 targets.
Jaleel McLaughlin looked poised to take over as the team’s No. 1 back, but only has 21 touches over the past three weeks. He’s up to 50 touches overall, rushing 38 times for 268 yards and a touchdown while adding 65 receiving yards and two scores on 12 catches and 14 targets.
Samaje Perine is another option out of the backfield, but with McLaughlin’s emergence, Perine only has 10 touches over the past three games. He’s up to 49 touches for the season, rushing 27 times for 103 yards and going for 231 receiving yards on 22 catches and 26 targets.
This is a more favorable matchup for the Bills’ backs, as Denver’s defense gives up the most fantasy points to RBs. They’ve been better of late though, so this isn’t as cut and dry as it might appear.
Verdict: I think you still have to trust the numbers and take Cook as the best fantasy back for this contest. I think Williams is a very close second, and could vault Cook with a touchdown. After those two, the only other fantasy option in standard leagues for me would be McLaughlin, and I’d stay away from him based on his recent showings. That makes McLaughlin my top option in deeper leagues, followed by Perine for what he can do as a pass catcher. After that, I’d trust Murray over Fournette, simply because we haven’t seen Fournette play yet and don’t know his role.
Wide Receiver Breakdown
Buffalo’s Stefon Diggs is clearly the No. 1 wide receiver in this contest, and he actually was the highest-projected wideout for week 10.
He’s caught 70 of his 97 targets so far this season, going for 834 yards and seven touchdowns. Diggs leads his team in red zone catches (10) and targets (13) too.
Gabe Davis is currently the No. 2 fantasy option, although Khalil Shakir has an argument for that role as of late. Davis has caught 31 of his 49 targets, going for 434 yards and five scores. Shakir has 18 grabs on 19 targets for the season - with 14 targets coming over the past three games - going for 224 yards and one score.
Trent Sherfield and Deonte Harty are other possible receiver options. Sherfield has only seven catches on 10 targets for the season, tallying 53 receiving yards. Harty is up to 113 yards and a score on 13 grabs and 17 targets. Neither are consistently involved, with three targets each over the past four weeks.
Courtland Sutton has been Denver’s top wideout this season, with 33 catches on 46 targets so far. He’s turned his catches into 380 yards and six touchdowns.
Jerry Jeudy has 27 grabs on 40 targets, going for 336 yards and a score. The big difference between him and Sutton has been the touchdown receptions.
Marvin Mims is the next most-targeted wideout. He’s caught 11-of-14 targets for 246 yards and a score. Lil’Jordan Humphrey is the only other receiver on the active roster. He’s got 26 yards and a touchdown on four catches and five targets this season.
Tre’Quan Smith served as a fifth receiver in the team’s last game. He only played 10 snaps and wasn’t targeted.
Verdict: Diggs is the clear top choice here. After him, there’s a couple flex options - I’d take Sutton ahead of Jeudy, followed by Davis and Shakir. I’d try to avoid anyone else in any format, but would take them in this order: Harty, Mims, Sherfield, Humphrey, Smith.
Tight End Breakdown
Adam Trautman is the Broncos only real fantasy threat coming into the contest, while Dalton Kincaid is the Bills only true threat. Kincaid was the only one that was ranked in our projections between the two.
Kincaid has taken on a larger role since Dawson Knox was injured. Kincaid has 26 targets over the past two contests and is up to 40 catches on 45 targets for the season. He’s turned those grabs into 339 yards and a score. He had four more targets than Diggs in week 9.
Trautman has played the second-most snaps (behind only Sutton) of the pass catchers, but hasn’t done much as a receiver. He’s caught 11 of his 18 targets for 69 yards and a score.
This is a favorable matchup for Kincaid and an average one for Trautman.
Verdict: Again, this should be an easy decision to make, with Kincaid being the obvious choice over Trautman. Kincaid has the chance to be the leading receiver in this contest.
Final Thoughts and Preferred Flex Players
This isn’t the greatest matchup, but there’s a good amount of fantasy options in it and could turn out to be a pretty fun game to watch.
I think Buffalo will win the contest, but I don’t expect them to cover the seven-point spread. A final score like 24-21 or 24-20 is what I foresee, which means I’d also take the under for the point total.
Players that are must starts for me are: Allen, Cook, Diggs and Kincaid. Williams and Sutton are close, but I am a fan of Cook and Diggs more.
If you just have flex spots to fill, here is how I’d rank them: Diggs, Cook, Kincaid, Williams, Sutton, Jeudy, Davis, Shakir, McLaughlin, Perine, Murray, Harty, Mims, Fournette, Sherfield, Trautman, Humphrey and then finally Smith.
If you are working with an offensive position (OP) spot, then Allen is the new No. 1 option over everybody else. I’d slot Wilson after Cook and before Kincaid.
Best of luck with your last-minute start decisions!
