Overvalued Fantasy Football Players 2024: Jalen Hurts, Trey McBride and Jordan Addison

Last week, I covered three players undervalued heading into the 2024 fantasy football season. Now it's time to discuss overvalued players, which would mean those drafted too early.

The tricky part about determining who is undervalued or overvalued is that you have to step away from the hivemind, which is usually entrenched in a narrative. For example, I posted the undervalued to Reddie, and a vocal minority would not believe Malik Nabers was undervalued.

One (silly) point of view argued that Nabers was the second-best rookie receiver this year. Based on the average draft position of other rookies over the last couple of years, this meant that Nabers was being drafted much sooner now than the second-best rookie receiver from last year and the year before. Yes, what a surprise that different rookies from different years carry different draft values! /s

Let the downvotes rain upon me for not agreeing with this flawed thinking! The argument was even made that last year, Brandon Aiyuk had the same ADP, and he was considered a much safer and better player then than Nabers is now. Therefore, how can Nabers be overvalued when he isn't as good as Aiyuk was last year?

This logic just makes no sense and treats fantasy football as if it exists in a vacuum across all years. The best WR scores this many points, and the second-best WR scores this many points. And to put a bow on it, all players should be projected in order of draft capital, apparently. It ignores the trends of rookies and younger players contributing more and more in recent years.

This flawed logic didn't include 2020 when Justin Jefferson finished as the top rookie WR and carried an ADP 125 because he was drafted after Jerry Jeudy, Henry Ruggs, and a few picks before Jalen Reagor. Yes, this really happened, and this was the consensus point of view.

You have to selectively find cracks in these methods of thinking. It doesn't need highfalutin advanced stats like a quarterback's average depth of target (aDOT), yards per route run (YPRR) or a personal favorite first downs per route run (1D/RR). Advanced stats help, but there's more than one way to win the game, and a skeptical, contrarian outlook is the best starting point.

Jalen Hurts, QB, Philadelphia Eagles

The Eagles brought in a new offensive coordinator, Kellen Moore, and he's spent the last four years as the offensive coordinator for the Cowboys (2019-2022) and Chargers (2023). Last year, Hurts finished as the QB2, and with a still-excellent offensive line in tow, one of the top WR duos and a rock-solid tight end, what's there not to like?

Well, my first concern is Jason Kelce's retirement. Centers not only bring their physical talents to the field, but their mental acuity makes the protection calls across the offensive front. Philadelphia has been grooming Cam Jurgens to take over, and he'll step over from right guard. But Kelce wasn't just your run-of-the-mill center, so replacing him would be a net loss. The success of the "Tush Push" seems likely to take a small step back.

I foresee some negative regression in Hurts's rushing touchdown total (15), and the team will have Saquon Barkley to fall back on to chew up yards in the red zone and around the goal line. If Hurts scores six touchdowns instead of 15, that'd have been enough to slide him down to QB6 last year. I don't expect Hurts to fall off the map. You'd probably still be content if Hurts finished QB5 when drafting him second, but it makes a huge difference in ADP.

Hurts is going 28th overall, while the fifth and sixth quarterbacks are drafted around picks 46 to 51. I would rather wait a few rounds for some second-tier quarterbacks than pay Hurts's full retail sticker price.

Position Ranking: QB2
Projected Finish: QB5

Jordan Addison, WR, Minnesota Vikings

Most will already fade Addison after what felt like a rookie campaign that broke his way favorably. From Weeks 6 to 12, Justin Jefferson missed seven games. Addison collected 35 catches for 437 yards and four touchdowns in those games. That's 50% of his receptions and 48% of his yards in 41% of his games.

When you factor in a game or two for Jefferson to get back to full speed, Addison and the Vikings offense would have to both exceed their 2023 efficiency for Addison to meet this year's new expectations.

I'm not even that against the idea of Sam Darnold surprising a lot of folks this year as a potential deep sleeper. But Addison scored a touchdown on every seventh catch (10 touchdowns, 70 receptions). That's a really high and difficult-to-replicate total, given such a relatively low volume of targets and receptions. 

Given Addison produced as a big-play receiver while ranking in the 56th percentile in YPRR, I'm happy to fade Addison by at least a full two rounds in 2024.

Position Ranking (Half PPR): WR40
Projected Finish (Half PPR): WR50

Trey McBride, TE, Arizona Cardinals

Of course, the return of Kyler Murray will result in a rising tide that lifts all boats, but it may be overstated when judging by McBride's TE3 ranking.

My concern for McBride is mostly about where he fits in the broader tight-end landscape. I do think it's fair to say that the second-year TE is likely the team's second-best receiving option, and there will be plenty of targets to go around to keep McBride in the mix as a competitive and productive fantasy tight end.

First, let's remember that McBride finished as the TE9 last year, far removed from the TE3 spot. He did have a really strong second half to the season with Murray in tow, but that's not always predictive of where a player will be in the following year. What's more important is that the point variations at the tight end are razor-thin.

The difference in 2023 for half PPR between TE2 Evan Engram and TE5 George Kittle was 2.6 fantasy points! Less than three points total! That's wild. The difference between TE2 and TE6 in 2022 was 32, or about 1.88 FPPG. To put this in a broader context, the difference between WR2 and WR6 last year was over 78 points.

So, with so few points separating these players, there's a built-in risk and little upside to going out of your way to draft McBride at his current ADP (45) when you can wait two rounds and land anyone from Kyle Pitts, Kittle or Engram.

I don't believe the tight end position has ever had so much potential in its second and third tiers. Even an improved McBride season may not mean much within the position, considering so many guys are on the potential come-up, like Dalton Kincaid, Pitts with Kirk Cousins, Engram, Brock Bowers, Jake Ferguson, and so on. Plus, having McBride at TE3 means you have to have him over Mark Andrews, which is a big ask. 

I would prefer to wait for tight-end value rather than make what I feel is a light reach for McBride. 

Position Ranking (Half PPR): TE3
Projected Finish (Half PPR): TE7