Fantasy Football Recent Tight End Draft Busts: Dawson Knox, Hunter Henry, Mike Gesicki and More can Teach Us Lessons
Recent tight ends who have failed to live up to their fantasy draft status due to something other than injury.
Over the last few days, I have been looking at fantasy football draft busts over the past three years for each offensive fantasy position. If you missed any of the previous investigations, you can find them here:
It’s time to finish up with tight ends, where there are less examples than at the other skill positions because of the scarcity of top talent. Not a lot of big surprises come at tight end, making it a little bit safer of a position. Of course, an injury can take down anyone, but guys who stay healthy usually stay somewhat near their draft status.
At FantasySP, we have fantasy draft bust information from recent seasons that show the average draft position and final scoring rankings of each player. I went through the last three seasons (here is the information for 2023, 2022, and 2021) to look at how many players “busted” at each position to try to determine if any positions were safer than others and to identify any clues that could have warned us about coming declines.
Injuries are a big part of the equation every season. Most fantasy busts end up as such because the players in question miss extended time. I’m more interested in the non-injured, though. Is there a common thread that might hint toward the busts of 2024?
In each season, I went through the top 20 drafted tight ends and listed each player who finished at least 10 spots lower than his draft status among his position. I’ll be filtering out those who sustained major injuries and breaking down those who simply regressed or failed to break out.
All rankings are in PPR format.
2023
- Mark Andrews: Drafted TE2, finished TE13
- Darren Waller: Drafted TE5, finished TE15
- Pat Freiermuth: Drafted TE9, finished TE28
- Greg Dulcich: Drafted TE17, finished TE92
- Dawson Knox: Drafted TE19, finished TE46
Injuries: Andrews, Waller, Freiermuth, Dulcich
Dawson Knox, Buffalo Bills
Knox missed four games due to injury, but the real reason he fell so far down the tight end leaderboard was the presence of first-round rookie Dalton Kincaid. Knox never caught more than three passes in a game and topped out at 36 yards, scoring two touchdowns on the season.
A guy who was expected to still have a role instead became a bit player who had no fantasy value.
Lesson for 2024: New additions might change the fantasy outlook of established players
Michael Mayer isn’t an established tight end, as he was anonymous as a rookie, but he was touted as one of the most NFL-ready tight ends coming into the league last year, and Mayer was expected to likely take over a bigger role in 2024.
Then Brock Bowers fell to the Raiders at No. 13 in the draft, and they took a best-player-available approach and added a generational tight end prospect. There’s no guarantee Bowers will be a star, but he is the top tight end for the Raiders now.
They are different players, so Bowers and Mayer can probably share the field in many situations, but tight end screens and pet plays will probably be called for Bowers, taking away touches from Mayer.
Bowers is a streamer right now, but his development could go fast if he is the level of player it seems. Mayer is off the fantasy radar due to his new teammate, falling more into the Knox category.
2022
- Kyle Pitts: Drafted TE3, finished TE29
- Hunter Henry: Drafted TE13, finished TE26
- Irv Smith: Drafted TE15, finished TE41
- Mike Gesicki: Drafted TE16, finished TE28
- Albert Okwuegbunam: DraftedTE19, finishedTE87
Injuries: Pitts, Smith, Okwuegbunam
Hunter Henry, New England Patriots
Henry joined the Patriots in 2021 after an intriguing but ultimately underwhelming stretch with the Chargers. Injuries played the biggest role in Henry never becoming a star, but he played a full season upon joining the Patriots and accumulated 50 catches, 603 yards, and nine touchdowns.
That put him among the top 10 tight ends in both fantasy scoring formats and made it seem like good things would continue. He lost 10 receptions and 100 yards from those totals in 2022, but this biggest issue was that he only scored two touchdowns, losing 42 fantasy points from his ’21 touchdown total.
Mac Jones played much better in 2021, his rookie season, before regressing in ’22 and missing three games with injury. His completion percentage, passing yards, passing touchdowns, yards per attempt and sack numbers were all worse in his second year. Henry felt the effects of his quarterback’s struggles.
Lesson for 2024: Beware of middling quarterbacks
In the article linked above with the wide receiver fantasy busts, bad quarterback play was the No. 1 culprit in receivers disappointing (not counting injuries). Any pass catcher is at the mercy of his QB, and a guy under center who can’t perform will hurt his tight end’s fantasy value.
The top fantasy tight ends mostly have good quarterbacks, so it might come down to whose QB gets hurt, which is impossible to predict. David Njoku (10th in our PPR rankings) has the most concern; Deshaun Watson hasn’t been anything close to his old self since joining Cleveland.
Njoku performed better without Watson in the lineup last season:
- With Watson (5 games): 4.0 receptions, 35.2 yards, 0.2 touchdowns per game
- Without Watson (11 games): 5.5 receptions, 64.2 yards, 0.5 touchdowns per game
It’s a small sample, but it’s notable since Watson has struggled so much.
Mike Gesicki, Miami Dolphins
Gesicki was the victim of a shift in offensive philosophy when the team brought in Mike McDaniel as head coach. After receiving 89, 85 and 112 targets in the three seasons before 2022, he dropped to 52 in McDaniel’s first year as coach. That was third on the team, but it was a huge cut from his previous volume.
The top targeted tight end last year was Durham Smythe, who was again third on the team but received only 43 targets. It’s clear that this Dolphins offense doesn’t use tight ends in the passing game, something that sank Gesicki’s fantasy value.
Lesson for 2024: Miami tight ends can’t be trusted
Jonnu Smith had a career year in Atlanta last season, racking up 50 receptions and 582 yards. Those aren’t Gronkowski numbers, but it’s solid at a position at which it’s sometimes hard to find value. Smith now joins the Dolphins as their starting tight end.
I’ve seen multiple people touting Smith as a TE with value going to a high-powered offense, but recent seasons have shown that they aren’t going to be using that position at a high volume, leaving Smith as a weak fantasy option.
Even a guy who was starring, like Gesicki, lost all fantasy value when McDaniel took over. Smith isn’t going to be fantasy relevant.
2021
- Darren Waller: Drafted TE2, finished TE15
- Logan Thomas: Drafted TE7, finished TE41
- Robert Tonyan: Drafted TE9, finished TE44
- Jonnu Smith: Drafted TE13, finished TE33
Injuries: Waller, Thomas, Tonyan
Jonnu Smith, New England Patriots
Smith joined the Patriots the same year as Henry, and we talked about Henry’s strong 2021 above. Smith had 28 catches (versus 50 for Henry), 294 yards (603) and one touchdown (nine).
Some thought Bill Belichick was rebuilding his two-tight end sets from the Gronkowski/Aaron Hernandez days, but Henry dominated the work while Smith was targeted 30 less times.
Lesson for 2024: The better player will win out in a competition
There are only so many passes to go around, and the best players generally see the ball the most. In any dual-tight end situation, don't count on the lesser half to produce consistently. There are a few clear situations this year:
- Kincaid over Knox in Buffalo
- Bowers over Mayer in Las Vegas
- Luke Musgrave over Tucker Kraft in Green Bay
- Jake Ferguson over Luke Schoonmaker in Dallas
- Andrews over Isaiah Likely in Baltimore, if Andrews is healthy
More situations will arise but remember that tight end is a lower-volume position than wide receiver, and two players can’t usually thrive together. Only the better player has value in most tight end situations.
