Week 1 Trending Start Decisions Answered: Patrick Mahomes or C.J. Stroud, Lamar Jackson or Joe Burrow, Rashee Rice or DeVonta Smith, and More

On Wednesday, I put together a couple stories (quarterbacks and wide receivers) on big trending fantasy football decisions in the FantasySP start/sit tool. 

Today, I woke up to a number of new trending decisions involving players from Thursday’s game between the Kansas City Chiefs and Baltimore Ravens, so we’re going to dive into another start/sit story.

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Start Lamar Jackson or Joe Burrow?

I went into detail about the matchup for Jackson in the Ravens Week 1 Fantasy Outlook and talked about Burrow in the QB start story from Wednesday.

Jackson is ranked two spots higher on the week 1 fantasy projections page and both are good enough/have good enough matchups to finish inside the top 10.

In terms of what fantasy owners are choosing to do when deciding between the two, Jackson is being started 52% of the time to just 9% for Burrow. They are being started together 30% of the time.

I agree with fantasy owners in that Jackson is the better starter for week 1. He’s got the tougher matchup, but also has rushing ability to score some fantasy points. I’m a bit nervous about Burrow against the New England Patriots, especially because Ja'Marr Chase hasn’t been practicing much leading up to the season.

Start Xavier Worthy or Jerome Ford?

I wrote about Worthy in the Chiefs Week 1 Fantasy Outlook and in the receiver start article.

Ford has a somewhat tough matchup against the Dallas Cowboys in week 1. With Nick Chubb out, Ford should be the lead back in Cleveland for the first couple weeks, and he proved last season he can put up good fantasy numbers in that role.

Ford is projected 11 PPR fantasy points in week 1, while Worthy is at 11 as well. Ford is started 22% of the time, while Worthy is started just 5%. They are started together 20% of the time.

I wrote yesterday that I liked Worthy for the season, but just not in week 1 against a tough defense and with Rashee Rice and Travis Kelce serving as the team’s top options. I like Ford over Worthy for a flex spot this week.

Start Patrick Mahomes or C.J. Stroud?

I talked about Mahomes in the Chiefs fantasy outlook story, but haven’t touched on Stroud yet.

Stroud has a pretty average matchup (based on last year’s defensive stats) against the Indianapolis Colts in week 1. In one game against Indy last season, Stroud was 20-of-26 for 264 yards and two touchdowns - in the other, he had 384 passing yards and no interceptions while completing 30 of his 47 passes.

In the week 1 projections, Mahomes is fifth with 20 projected points. Stroud is 13th at 18 points.

Fantasy owners are torn on who to start, with both guys showing as 23% started. They are started together (I’m one of them) 46% of the time.

If forced to choose between the two, I’m leaning Mahomes, although I think both QBs are going to be top-10 options this week. I’d definitely start both if I could, that’s just what you do with QBs of this caliber.

Start Xavier Worthy or Chuba Hubbard?

Worthy returns for another trending decision, this time against Hubbard.

Hubbard has a week 1 clash against the New Orleans Saints and is projected for 12 PPR points. He had 87 rushing yards and 34 receiving yards on 25 touches in one game against the Saints in 2023 - he had 50 total yards on seven touches in the other. Much like Ford in Cleveland, Hubbard has the inside line to be his team’s RB1 while the top back (Jonathon Brooks) is out with an injury. 

Fantasy owners prefer Worthy over Hubbard, starting the WR 18% of the time to 16% for the RB. Both guys are started in about 7% of leagues.

I’m taking Hubbard over Worthy if I have one starting spot left. I just trust a top back more than a third receiving option on a team. Both guys have bust potential this week, but I like Hubbard’s upside a touch more.

Start Rashee Rice or DeVonta Smith?

Rice was part of the receiver start story yesterday, while Smith is a new name on the start/sit tool.

Smith plays on Friday against the Green Bay Packers, so we’ll know who the right start decision was by Saturday. Smith is projected for 14 PPR points, while Rice is at 13.

Fantasy owners prefer Smith, starting him 29% of the time. Rice is started over Smith just 4% of the time, while both are started 60% of the time.

I’m starting both guys if I can too. I prefer Rice over Smith though in week 1. I see Rice as a bigger part of his offense, while I think the Eagles lean a little more on the ground game as the Packers’ defense struggled mightily against the run in 2023.

Start Rhamondre Stevenson or Xavier Worthy?

Worthy is back for more, this time against Stevenson.

Stevenson’s week 1 matchup with the Bengals is favorable, as Cincy was a bottom-10 run defense in 2023. The only problem is that Antonio Gibson is now on the Pats and might suck up some touches.

Stevenson is projected for 11 PPR fantasy points, right in line with Worthy.

Fantasy owners are starting Stevenson 42% of the time, while Worthy is starting under 4% of the time. Both are being started in 23% of leagues.

I too like Stevenson over Worthy for week 1. Stevenson will get more touches and has a better chance to score, so that’s why I lean his way. I’ve said it before and will say it again: I’m trying not to start Worthy in week 1 if I can help it.

Start Rashee Rice or James Conner?

Rice is back for another trending decision against Conner.

Conner has a week 1 matchup against the Buffalo Bills. Buffalo was pretty average in slowing the run in 2023 - the Bills were good in slowing the pass. Conner is projected for 14 PPR points.

I was a bit surprised to see Conner starting 18% of the time in this matchup, while Rice was at under 9%. They are being started together 56% of the time.

I think Rice has a higher ceiling this week, but I prefer Conner by the slimmest of margins. I’d try to start both guys if I could.

Start Xavier Worthy or Christian Watson?

Worthy is back one last time for a battle with Watson.

The Eagles’ defense struggled in slowing the pass in 2023, so this looks like a favorable matchup for Watson. The only problem is that the Packers WR room is deep, and anyone can go off or be a bust on any day,

Watson is projected for 12 PPR points for the week. One thing he’s done well when healthy is find the end zone, so that’s something to keep in mind.

Fantasy owners are starting Worthy 16% of the time, while Watson is at 9%. Both are starting in just 9% of leagues.

I disagree with fantasy owners on this one and would prefer Watson over Worthy in week 1. I like Watson to be more involved offensively for his team, and he could score to really boost his fantasy total.

Start Rashee Rice or D.J. Moore?

One more receiver debate with Rice and Moore here.

Moore and the Bears face the Tennessee Titans in week 1. It’s a fairly average matchup based on last year’s defensive stats for the Titans. Fantasy owners are wondering how the targets will be distributed, and we’ll get our first answer this weekend.

Moore is projected for one more PPR point (14) than Rice in week 1.

Moore is the heavy favorite to start, doing so in 30% of leagues to just 4% for Rice. Both guys are starting in 53% of leagues.

I also would try to get both of these receivers into my starting lineup for week 1. Between the two, I prefer Moore by a little bit though. I’d take Moore because he’s the No. 1 target in Chicago, while Rice is the No. 2 behind Kelce in KC.