Jordan Love Starting for Packers in Week 4: Fantasy Implications for Jayden Reed, Christian Watson, Josh Jacobs and More

Jordan Love will reportedly play for the Packers this week after missing the past two games with an injury. That’s surely music to the ears of anyone with a rooting interest in Green Bay, and it changes the fantasy outlook of the Packers’ skill players.

This week’s matchup against the Vikings is tough: DVOA (a measure of success rate) pegs Minnesota as the best defense in football through three weeks. They dominated the Giants in Week 1. C.J. Stroud was held to 215 yards last week as the Vikings made the Texans look like the Giants.

Brock Purdy found volume success in Week 2, throwing for 319 yards at almost 9.0 yards per attempt, but the 49ers were losing the whole game and threw a lot to keep up, and the Vikings were able to sack Purdy six times and pick him off once. The Vikings don’t look lucky: they look legitimately good.

So, are Green Bay’s offensive players set up for failure against such a tough defense? If Love were out, I would recommend sitting everyone. The team was successful with Malik Willis under center, running a different offense and using his considerable running skills more than straight drop backs.

That makes for decent production from Willis, but it doesn’t help his skill guys a lot. Love gives every pass catcher a higher floor and ceiling, though the run game might be affected negatively with the change back to QB1.

Let’s look at the impact of Love’s return on everyone in Green Bay’s offense. I’ll give recommendations on how to treat each player in Week 4 and/or over the rest of the season.

Jordan Love, Quarterback

Starting with the man himself, Love was QB6 last season and QB11 in Week 1. He was drafted as a weekly starter in fantasy leagues, and owners are probably ready to throw him back into the lineup after having to stream for a few weeks. I understand that move, especially if you don’t have another real option.

The Vikes are in the top 10 in fantasy points allowed to quarterbacks and rank 11th in yards per pass attempt allowed. They’re not a lockdown defense, but Minnesota is in the top third of the league as a pass D.

Given Love’s proclivity for the pass, it makes sense to start him even with a tough matchup. Some guys are just fantasy starters who are going to be in your lineup every week. If you have another player to consider, like Washington’s Jayden Daniels, for instance, then it’s worth weighing your options. Without that high-level second player, though, Love is likely your best bet.

Jayden Reed, Wide Receiver

Reed is the top fantasy option among Green Bay receivers. Not only does he put up the best receiving stats, but he also carries the ball once or twice most games. Just like quarterbacks have extra value when they run and throw, Reed has accumulated nearly 15 fantasy points running the ball (89 yards and a touchdown).

Reed might be a weekly starter depending on your receivers. There’s always a chance at a big game when Love is in the lineup, and the team will make an effort to get Reed involved. He’s a guy you can put in your lineup this week, but if you have strong receivers, it’s also OK to consider leaving him on the bench.

Christian Watson, Wide Receiver

Watson was supposed to be WR1, but Reed has taken over that role. Watson got in the end zone in Week 1, but his three catches only gained 13 yards. After getting shut out in Week 2, Watson caught a 30-yard pass and 37-yard pass last week.

That’s…not great. He’s averaging less than two catches and 30 yards per week. Last season, Watson averaged close to three receptions and 40 yards each game. There’s an explosive element to his game, but Watson is not getting the usage of other receivers on this team.

I don’t like Watson as a fantasy player and see him as a guy to trade if someone will give you a little value.

Romeo Doubs, Wide Receiver

It’s easy to think Doubs isn’t fantasy relevant, but he’s actually been on the field for the most snaps of any Packers receiver and is second on the team in targets, catches, and receiving yards.

I won’t recommend Doubs this week, but he’s worth considering for a roster spot if you’re in a deeper league given his snap share. Doubs is no more than a WR3/4/flex option, though.

Dontayvion Wicks could also be mentioned, but he is in a backup role and not worth a spot on your roster right now.

Luke Musgrave and Tucker Kraft, Tight End

The tight ends haven’t been very involved in 2024. Musgrave is the more sought-after fantasy player, but Kraft has played more snaps in all three games. Kraft has also been more productive:

• Kraft: 8 targets, 6 catches, 77 yards
• Musgrave: 4 targets, 2 catches, 9 yards

Kraft isn’t a feasible fantasy player, and Musgrave has been much worse. There’s such a low floor that fantasy owners can’t put either player in their lineup this week.

Josh Jacobs, Running Back

Let’s finish with Jacobs, a guy who is impacted differently than the pure pass catchers. Jacobs had two polar opposite games without Love under center:

• Week 2 vs Colts: 32 carries, 151 yards
• Week 3 @ Titans: 14 carries, 43 yards, one reception, five yards

That will probably define the season for Jacobs: inconsistency. He’s a fine back, but Jacobs isn’t a star runner. While he led the league in rushing yards in 2022, Jacobs never averaged more than 4.0 yards per carry in any season other than his rookie year. Jacobs is a back who can be replaced.

Jacobs has done some decent receiving work in his career, but he has just three receptions for 25 yards so far. That’s not something I’m going to count on when projecting his production until we see it happen.

Green Bay threw 35 passes in Week 1 when Love was in, but they combined for just 33 pass attempts in Weeks 2 and 3. Part of that was the game situation: the Packers were trying to keep up with Philadelphia in that first game while taking permanent leads in the first quarter in the latter two contests.

The team will throw more with Love on the field, but the game will also dictate play distribution. If they have the lead most of the game, Jacobs will see volume and rack up yards. If the game is close or Green Bay is losing, Jacobs will see the ball less and might fail to make a major impact.

Whether or not you start him depends on the rest of your roster. Jacobs is an RB2/flex type, and he fits in your lineup if you don’t have strong backs.