Fantasy Football Week 10 Tight End Start/Sit: Sam LaPorta, Dalton Kincaid, Theo Johnson and More

Three tight ends to start and three to sit in Week 10 of the NFL season.

Past the halfway point of the NFL season, we’re approaching the time where teams are officially just what they are. There’s a quote always referenced from Bill Parcells: “You are what your record says you are.”

Advanced stats tell us more about teams than simple win/loss record. There are always teams who greatly outplay or underperform relative to their record, and it’s easy to expect them to get where they belong before the season ends.

The NFL schedule is only 17 games long, though, and things don’t always have time to even out. It’s the same in fantasy football: there’s always a team near the top of the league in scoring who has a terrible record because of bad luck, and though that owner deserves better, we’re running out of time for that wrong to right itself.

Focusing on maybe the toughest fantasy position at which to find production, let’s look at three tight ends to start and three to sit in Week 10. I used defensive stats from NFL.com and our FantasySP defensive fantasy rankings to help identify the best and worst matchups. I will reference those numbers often.

Start

Theo Johnson, New York Giants vs. Carolina Panthers (in Germany)

Johnson’s quarterback, Daniel Jones, was listed as a “Start” at quarterback, and the rookie tight end joins him with a positive outlook in Germany. The Panthers might be the worst team in the league; the defense is bottom-five. Carolina has allowed the fourth-most yards per pass attempt and fourth-most fantasy points per game to tight ends.

Johnson has been moderately involved, three times receiving either zero or one target, while reaching at least four targets in four games. In four of his past five games, Johnson has caught at least three passes for at least 30 yards.

The matchup is the star here. Johnson is just a low- to mid-level streamer, but there is upside given the state of his opponent.

Dalton Kincaid, Buffalo Bills @ Indianapolis Colts

Kincaid hasn’t taken the big jump I was hoping for when hyping him up before the season. He is first on the team in targets (54), but he’s second in receptions (32) and third in yards (332) with just two touchdowns.

There’s nothing wrong with that line, but I was expecting him to take a big step forward with no WR1. The team was compelled to trade for Amari Cooper because no one was filling that role.

The matchup is right for Kincaid in Week 10, as the Colts have given up the seventh-most yards per pass attempt and the second-most fantasy points per game to tight ends. Only the Panthers have allowed more touchdowns per game to TEs than Indianapolis.

With the matchup in his favor and Josh Allen as his quarterback, Kincaid is a player to start this week. There won’t be many better opportunities this season.

Jonnu Smith, Miami Dolphins @ Los Angeles Rams

This is another case of the matchup making the man. LA has allowed the most yards per pass attempt and seventh-most fantasy points per game to tight ends. A young defense that lost their best player to retirement (Aaron Donald) in the offseason is predictably struggling to stop the pass.

Smith has been another hit-or-miss fantasy player, fitting into the streamer category. He has topped 45 yards in four of his eight games, otherwise combining for 45 receiving yards in the other four games. Smith has caught at least four passes five times.

OK player, good matchup; there’s not a lot else that needs to be said. Smith is a guy to consider if you’re without a tight end this week.

Sit

Will Dissly, Los Angeles Chargers vs. Tennessee Titans

Dissly is a low-level fantasy player, not often finishing among the starters at his position. Without a lot of options for this spot, though, I’ll highlight him because of the rough matchup against Tennessee.

The Titans have allowed the least yards per pass attempt and seventh-fewest fantasy points per game to tight ends. It’s tough to fully trust Tennessee because their offense sets them back at times, but the teams defense has been good: they rank ninth in defensive DVOA.

There are weeks Dissly can be considered, but this isn’t one of them. He has a bad matchup and not much reason to hope for production.

Jake Ferguson, Dallas Cowboys vs. Philadelphia Eagles

Ferguson’s biggest issue is that he just lost his quarterback: Dak Prescott sustained an injury last week and will likely end up on IR. Cooper Rush will take over (with Trey Lance lurking in the shadows), lowering Ferguson’s ceiling and floor until we see what the offense will look like without the starting QB.

Philadelphia has allowed the seventh-fewest yards per pass attempt and fourth-least fantasy points per game to tight ends. The Eagles had a blip as one of football's worst pass defenses in 2023, but they have found their way and reverted closer to 2022 levels (when they went to the Super Bowl).

Ferguson is fine, but the matchup and his quarterback situation are against him in Week 10. Every Dallas receiver will probably feel negative effects; it might take a few weeks to see how successful they can really be.

Sam LaPorta, Detroit Lions @ Houston Texans

The matchup is the biggest thing here, as the Texans have allowed the second-least yards per pass attempt and the fewest fantasy points per game to tight ends. C.J. Stroud hasn’t been Houston’s driving force: it’s the defense.

Before the season, we expected LaPorta to be matchup-proof, able to be started every week. It made sense after his 2023 rookie year, when he racked up almost 900 yards and 10 touchdowns. He’s taken a step back, to say the least.

LaPorta hasn’t had anything close to the same impact. He has caught more than two passes in three of eight games and has topped 50 yards just twice. LaPorta is on pace for about 30 less catches, 200 fewer yards, and less than half as many touchdowns as last season.

Given the tough matchup and LaPorta’s standing as “just another guy,” he might look better on your bench in Week 10. Some owners won’t ever sit him because of the upside, and I get it, but the numbers are against LaPorta.

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