Fantasy Football Week 10 Start/Sit Decisions: David Montgomery vs. Tony Pollard vs. Najee Harris vs. Kareem Hunt

Ted takes a look at four RB2 options for Week 10 in fantasy football.

Heading into Week 10, the FantasySP team has you covered for all your fantasy football start/sit questions! Morgan Rode has taken a look at quarterbacks and wide receivers, while yours truly has broken down DST decisions and the enigmatic Taysom “Tight End” Hill. You can also check out the entire Start/Sit section for even more articles that may answer your specific questions! 

However, if you’re lucky enough to be deciding between two of Tony Pollard, Najee Harris, David Montgomery, and Kareem Hunt, this is the article for you! All of these players are solid RB2s, but let’s break down who has the best fantasy football outlook for week 10.

Looking for more help with your toughest fantasy football Start/Sit decisions? Be sure to check out the FantasySP Start/Sit Tool!

David Montgomery Week 10 Fantasy Outlook

I said in the introduction that these players are all RB2s, but Montgomery has performed like a borderline RB1 so far this season. He ranks as the RB14 in Half-PPR points per game and RB17 in total points despite the Lions already having had their bye. Montgomery has also been incredibly consistent, finishing inside the top 30 running backs every single week. 

That consistency is especially impressive when we remember that Montgomery is splitting time with another excellent running back in Jahmyr Gibbs. The explosive sophomore and the dependable veteran have been in a very even split so far this season. Gibbs has the edge in snap rate (51% vs 43%), but Montgomery leads in carries (110 to 103). Gibbs is also unsurprisingly the preferred receiving back, but Montgomery actually isn’t far behind with an 8% target share of his own. Montgomery also has a decent edge with 63% of the goal-line carries, a huge deal on an offense this dominant. 

The matchup with the Texans isn’t ideal, as Houston is the fifth-toughest adjusted matchup for running backs, but the Lions have shown they are willing and able to run the ball down anyone’s throat. Montgomery is a great play this week, as he is every week.

Tony Pollard Week 10 Fantasy Outlook

Pollard has performed similarly to Montgomery so far this season, ranking slightly behind in both total points and points per game. However, I am much more worried about the Titans’ lead RB this week. 

For one, a large chunk of Pollard’s fantasy value has come thanks to pure volume. So far this season, he has played 74% of the Titans’ offensive snaps and handled 74% of their running back rushes. He has also racked up a solid 12% target share on a 53% route participation rate. The issue is that all of those numbers are likely to come down this week, as Tyjae Spears is returning after missing the last three weeks with a hamstring injury. Spears has struggled with injuries repeatedly this season, but Pollard goes from a dominant bell cow to more average RB1 usage when the sophomore is active. (I’m also worried that the Titans actually plan to use more of a 1A/1B committee, but that’s unlikely in Spears’ first week back.)

The other issue for Pollard is the Titans’ overall offensive incompetence. That will be exacerbated this week by a tough matchup with the Chargers, who rank as the toughest defense overall in EPA per play allowed and second-best against rushing attempts specifically. The return of Will Levis, who has been decidedly worse than his backup Mason Rudolph so far this season, doesn’t help either. 

With all that said, Pollard should still see excellent volume and has actually played very well so far this season (he ranks third among all RBs in yards after contact per attempt). He also has huge touchdown equity, as even with Spears healthy he should be the preferred goal-line back. He comes with a lower floor than ideal but still profiles as a backend RB2 for this week. 

Najee Harris Week 10 Fantasy Outlook

In terms of fantasy scoring, Harris has been a tier below the previous two RBs so far this season. However, he has picked things up in recent weeks, with three straight top-20 finishes after cracking the top 20 just once over the first five weeks of the season. It’s not a coincidence that two of those games came with Russell Wilson under center — so far, the veteran has been an improvement over Justin Fields in terms of efficiency, and he doesn’t steal carries for himself like Fields does. 

Harris also deserves some credit of his own for his recent surge, as he has simply been playing well. His average PFF Rushing Grade over the last four weeks is 77.4, a good number and way up from his 61.3 average over the first four games. Like both Pollard (with Spears back) and Montgomery (with Gibbs), he does share his backfield, as Jaylen Warren is consistently involved. However, Harris is the clear lead back, easily leading in both snaps and carries and even maintaining a slight edge with a 10% target share. 

This week, Najee and the Steelers have a matchup with the Commanders, who are a below-average matchup for running backs with a new-look defense. With that said, Washington actually gives up the third-highest EPA per rush of any team. As long as Pittsburgh can keep this game close (they are two-point underdogs), Harris should be able to rack up some points in Week 10. 

Kareem Hunt Week 10 Fantasy Outlook

An unsigned free agent at the beginning of the season, Hunt is suddenly a borderline fantasy RB1. The Chiefs signed him following an injury to Isiah Pacheco, and the veteran quickly established himself as Kansas City’s lead back. Over the last four weeks, Hunt has handled 83% of the Chiefs’ RB rushes, with at least 20 carries every game. He’s averaged just one target per game over that span, but a 31% route participation rate means that number may have a little room to grow.

Of course, a huge key to Hunt’s value is that he plays on the best team in the NFL. Over the last four weeks, he leads the entire league with 10 goal-line carries — no other player has more than seven. Unsurprisingly, that usage has turned into touchdowns, as Hunt has five total and at least one in every game since taking over as the Chiefs’ starter. 

To his credit, the 29-year-old is taking advantage of his opportunities. While he isn’t the explosive playmaker he once was, Hunt ranks third among qualified RBs in success rate (per SumerSports). He may find slightly tougher sledding this week, as Kansas City is taking on a tough divisional opponent in the Broncos, who rank third overall in EPA per play allowed. However, Denver is weaker against the rush, and I trust Patrick Mahomes to keep this offense on schedule. Vegas agrees, as the Chiefs have a very healthy 25.5-point total. If they score a couple of TDs, chances are Hunt gets at least one of them. That and his elite volume are enough to make him a borderline RB1 in my book. 

The Bottom Line

So, in a hypothetical world where you have all four of these players on your roster, who should you start? For me, the best choice is Hunt, closely followed by Montgomery. These two backs simply profile better in terms of their roles and environments than the other two, and I lean Hunt over Montgomery as he doesn’t have Gibbs to contend with. 

Deciding between Harris and Pollard is tougher, but I lean toward Harris — the Titans’ offense is more likely to totally implode than the Steelers’, and there’s a non-zero chance that Spears is more involved than we expect even in his first week back.

Check out our Start/Sit tool or reach out to me on Twitter if you have any more questions, and may the fantasy football gods be with you in Week 10!

Check out @tchmyz on Twitter for more fantasy football content or to ask questions!

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