Fantasy Football Week 17 Wide Receiver Start/Sit: Khalil Shakir, Adam Thielen, Jauan Jennings, Marvin Harrison Jr., Deebo Samuel

We’ve made it to the final week of the fantasy football season: championship weekend. Trophies will be won and lost this week, so it is critical to do your best to nail every lineup decision. With that in mind, this article is here to identify which wide receivers you should start and which you should sit for Week 17 … but first, let’s take a look back at how my picks did in Week 16.  

Overall, last week’s results were excellent. My worst call of the week was Jauan Jennings as a Start, but even he wasn’t too terrible with 7.1 Half-PPR points (four catches for 51 yards). My other two starts of DK Metcalf (13.2 points) and especially Xavier Worthy (17.0 points) had productive outings. Meanwhile, Jayden Reed led my Sit picks with just 9.6 points (three catches for 76 yards and one carry for five yards). Jerry Jeudy managed just 3.0 points with Dorian Thompson-Robinson under center, and my two-in-one pick of DeAndre Hopkins and Amari Cooper combined for just 7.2 points. Hopefully, we can keep this momentum rolling for the final, most important week of the season. Here we go!

For more help with your toughest Week 17 Start/Sit decisions, check out FantasySP’s NFL Start/Sit tool!

Fantasy Football Wide Receivers To Start Week 17

Khalil Shakir, Buffalo Bills vs. New York Jets

It didn’t show up on the stat sheet (two catches for 22 yards), but Khalil Shakir had arguably his best usage of the season on Sunday. He led Buffalo with an 85% route participation rate, his highest of the season and 14% above his season average. He also posted a very solid 21% target share and a 33% air yards share. That first number is in line with his average numbers, but a low ADOT means his air yards share for the season is just 16% — it’s very encouraging to see him being used down the field.

This matchup with the Jets isn’t ideal, as New York ranks as the seventh-toughest schedule-adjusted opponent for fantasy receivers. However, the Jets actually allow an above-average number of points to slot receivers. That’s perfect for Shakir, who has run 74% of his routes this season out of the slot. He’s certainly not without risk, as we know how the Bills have been spreading the ball around. But Shakir is a solid high-upside flex play for your Week 17 lineups. 

Adam Thielen, Carolina Panthers @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Since his return from the IR, Adam Thielen ranks as the WR26 with 12.4 Half-PPR points per game. He has a 23% target share and a 29% air yards share in the Panthers’ offense, as well as a 30% first-read target share. And all those numbers are much more relevant than they would have been early in the season in Carolina's offense, as Bryce Young is averaging 226 yards per game over that same span (that’s still by no means incredible, but it’s a massive improvement from his early-season performances). 

Now, Thielen takes this solid usage into a dream matchup with the Buccaneers. Tampa Bay’s defense is the fifth-best matchup for opposing receivers, including allowing the third-most wide receiver receptions per game in the league. The Panthers have an almost-respectable 19.5-point team total for this matchup, and we can expect the veteran receiver to be a big part of that. Especially if Xavier Legette is out, fire Thielen up with confidence for this week’s matchup.

Jauan Jennings, San Francsico vs. Detroit Lions

Jennings is probably the player who has appeared in this section the most this season, so it’s only fitting that he makes one final appearance in the last article of the year. Jennings has undeniably been disappointing in recent weeks, with just one top-40 finish out of his last five appearances. But we can make excuses (including snow, rain, and Brandon Allen) for a lot of those bad outings.

Meanwhile, Jennings’ usage has continued to be excellent. Since his return from injury in Week 10, Jennings easily leads the 49ers with a 26% target share. He also has an excellent 37% air yards share to go with a 33% first-read target share — he is the focal point of this passing offense. And this is a great spot for the 49ers’ passing offense, as they will likely be playing keep-up while facing an injury-ravaged Lions defense. They probably won’t do enough to keep up with Jared Goff and Co., but they should do enough for Jennings to finish his breakout fantasy season on a strong performance.

Fantasy Football Wide Receivers To Sit Week 17

Marvin Harrison Jr., Arizona Cardinals @ Los Angeles Rams

A talented young player playing a large role on a decent offense, Harrison Jr. isn’t a must-bench. But when looking at our wide receiver projections for Week 17, he sticks out like a sore thumb as by far the most widely started receiver down at his WR42 ranking. And before you protest that WR42 is too low of a projection for MHJ, consider that he has finished that low or lower in four of his last five outings (and eight of his last 11).

With 6.5 targets per game, Harrison Jr. simply isn’t seeing elite receiver volume. It doesn’t help that only 70% of his targets have been catchable, as well as 21% being contested targets. That's especially an issue because Harrison Jr. ranks 132nd out of 139 receivers in terms of Catch Rating according to ESPN’s tracking metrics, and his 29% contested catch rate is the seventh-worst among 53 receivers with at least 10 contested targets. That last number is even worse when we consider that all six of the players with lower catch rates have 11 or fewer such targets — MHJ has 21. 

In Harrison’s favor, the Rams are an above-average opponent for opposing receivers. And we do know that he has both big-play and big-game ability. As I said at the beginning, he’s not a must-bench. But if you’ve somehow made it this far despite his back-to-back playoff duds, this is me saying you can sit the rookie who probably cost you a first or second-round pick if you have another option.

Deebo Samuel Sr., San Francisco 49ers vs. Detroit Lions

On the one hand, Deebo has a lot of things in his favor this week. He gets the same great environment I described in Jennings’ blurb, as the 49ers will be playing from behind against a very injured defense. He is also coming off his best game of the season, as he was the WR5 in Week 16 with 21.6 Half-PPR points.

However, last week was Samuel’s first week scoring even 5.0 points since all the way back in Week 10. For the season, he has averaged a very mediocre 8.5 points. He has averaged an okay 19% target share but just a 16% air yards share. With that usage, you need elite YAC ability to put up consistently big numbers — Deebo has had that in the past, but it simply hasn’t been there this season. 

We also know that Samuel is involved in the 49ers’ rushing game, and he had his best game of the season on that front last week with five carries for 25 yards. But A: That’s simply not that good for being his best game of the season and B: He will likely be less involved with Isaac Guerendo back healthy this week. Like MHJ, Deebo is not a must-bench, especially in deeper leagues. But if you have another decent option, I’d leave him out of your Week 17 lineup.

Rapid Fire

Harrison and Samuel are players I lean toward benching but would still reluctantly roll out in plenty of deeper formats. They still see okay weekly usage and have the theoretical talent to take advantage. This next group of players is not the same. These guys are in situations with real, massive issues. Even in deeper formats, they should not be started unless you are absolutely desperate. 

Amari Cooper, Buffalo Bills

Cooper has caught a whopping one pass for 10 yards over the last two weeks. With a route participation rate below 50% in each week, there’s no reason to expect things to get meaningfully better.

Any Colts Receiver: Josh Downs, Michael Pittman, Alec Pierce

With a shot at the playoffs still alive, the Colts have decided to stop asking Anthony Richardson to do things he isn’t good at, like passing the football. He attempted just 11 passes last week, as Indianapolis posted an absurdly low 19% pass rate, 27% below their expected mark. The only other team to have used a game plan anything like this all season was the Packers in Week 2, when Malik Willis was under center. 

Given that the Colts won last week’s game and have another soft matchup with the Giants this week, we can expect more of the same run-run-run offense in Week 17. With that low level of volume, no Indianapolis receiver is a startable fantasy play. (Note that this doesn’t apply if Joe Flacco is given the start, as Richardson is dealing with foot and back injuries.)

Any Browns Receiver: Jerry Jeudy, Elijah Moore, Cedric Tillman

It seems as though Dorian Thompson-Robinson will get another start for the Browns on Sunday. That immediately makes all of their receivers unviable fantasy options. In the four games in DTR’s career in which he has played more than 50% of Cleveland’s offensive snaps, no Browns receiver has scored more than 9.0 Half-PPR points (Elijah Moore in Week 11 of last season). DTR's 3.8 yards per attempt this season is the worst in the league by far, and he has yet to throw a passing touchdown.

In fact, he has never thrown a passing TD to a receiver in 180 attempts — his only career TD was a one-yard toss to Harrison Bryant. Assuming Thompson-Robinson recovers from his calf injury in time to start this matchup against the Dolphins, no Cleveland receiver can be trusted.

Ted Chmyz is a fantasy football contributor for FantasySP. Find him on Twitter @Tchmyz for more fantasy content or to ask questions.