Fantasy Football Week 10 D/ST Start/Sit: Giants, Chiefs, Ravens, Jets, 49ers

Ted breaks down defenses to start and defenses to sit for Week 10's fantasy football matchups.

Welcome to the Week 10 fantasy football DST start/sit breakdown! Let's start by looking back at last week, in which we had some thoroughly mixed results. My Start picks of the Saints (five points) and Commanders (four points) dissappointed, but they did still beat out two Sit picks of Denver (-3 points) and Buffalo (two points) … but not Detroit (six points). Overall, last week was a weird week for defensive scoring, with surprising teams topping the scoring charts (anyone who claims they predicted the Rams and Colts as top-five units is lying). Thus is the unpredictable nature of DST scoring. Hopefully this week we can bounce back with some more predictable results. Let’s get started!

For more help with your toughest Start/Sit decisions, check out FantasySP’s NFL Start/Sit tool!

Fantasy Football Defenses To Start Week 10

New York Giants @ Carolina Panthers

As always, let’s start with a recommendation pulled from my Streaming Defense Options article. Two of the teams mentioned in that article, the Chargers and Bears, are now being started in the vast majority of leagues. And the final option, the Patriots, are only a desperation choice. That leaves the Giants, who are still well over 50% available despite having a dream matchup this week with Carolina.   

It has officially been confirmed that Bryce Young will start for the Panthers this week in Germany. That means we are wheels up on the Giants as a smash start option for this week. Young has played better since returning to the Panthers’ starting job in Week 8, but it’s impossible to ignore how rough his sophomore year has been thus far. So far this season, defenses facing Young have finished with an average of 8.75 fantasy points. He has thrown at least one interception and taken at least one sack in every outing. 

Meanwhile, the Giants’ defense easily leads the league with 35 sacks in nine games. According to Fantasy Points Data, they produce pressure at the third-highest rate compared to expected. I love their chances to rack up a few sacks of Young this week, which is always the first step to a very solid defensive fantasy outing.   

Kansas City Chiefs vs. Denver Broncos

I simply don’t understand how the Chiefs are currently not being started in over a quarter of fantasy leagues. The reigning Super Bowl champs have been dominant defensively to start the season, ranking in the top five in each of points per game, yards per game, and yards per play allowed. They don’t rank high in sacks, which is a bit of a red flag, but they do lead the league in QB knockdown rate — they’re getting close, so the sacks are coming. 

To be fair, those sacks might not come this week, as Bo Nix and the Broncos have the fourth-lowest sack rate of any team in the league. However, even with Nix improving of late, the Broncos also still rank as a bottom 10 team in the same three stats where the Chiefs’ defense ranks well: points per game, yards per game, and yards per play. 

Denver also ranks seventh-worst in EPA per play, the only team in the bottom seven that hasn’t switched quarterbacks at some point this season. At the end of the day, the Broncos have a 16.5-point team total heading into this divisional matchup. That number alone is enough to indicate that the Chiefs are a very solid starting option. 

Fantasy Football Defenses To Sit Week 10

Baltimore Ravens vs. Cincinnati Bengals

Speaking of using implied totals to make decisions, the Bengals have a 23.5-point implied total for tonight’s Thursday Night Football matchup. That may even be underselling their potential, as Joe Burrow and Co. put up 38 points in a losing effort against this same Baltimore team in Week 5.

The thing is, the Ravens simply aren’t a good defensive team at this stage of the season, especially against the passing game. They give up the eighth-most EPA per play of any team in the league and the fourth-highest EPA per dropback. That’s a recipe for disaster against a Bengals team that ranks seventh in overall EPA per play, fourth in dropback EPA, and first in pass rate over expected. 

I don’t know what the over 50% of managers currently starting the Ravens’ defense are hoping for, but they are likely to be disappointed. If you are included in that number, make a change, and make it fast, as this game kicks off in a matter of hours, not days. 

New York Jets @ Arizona Cardinals

The Jets have become a mainstay in the Sit section of this article, as their defensive reputation is outstripping their actual production so far this season (and they keep having tough matchups). Despite boasting elite talent at all three levels of their defense, the Jets rank barely above average at 14th in EPA per play allowed.

To their credit, the Jets rank much better in traditional measures: 10th in points per game, fourth in yards per game, and best in the league in yards per play allowed. But, once we include that EPA number, we still have a picture of an above-average defense, not a truly elite one. In a world where matchups matter more than anything else, that’s not enough to trust them against a solid Cardinals offense. 

Arizona has certainly had their struggles offensively, but they still rank comfortably above average in most measures of offensive production. Kyler Murray is an above-average quarterback with two great weapons in Trey McBride and Marvin Harrison Jr., and James Conner is still one of the most underrated RBs in the league. Particularly importantly, Kyler has avoided mistakes, ranking 10th-best in pressure-to-sack rate and fourth-best in turnover-worthy throw rate. Even if they don’t give up too many points, it’s hard to see the Jets racking up turnovers or sacks this week. They’re not a must-bench, but they certainly shouldn’t be starting in over 50% of leagues (as they are now). 

San Francisco 49ers @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Once again, we have a team with an elite defensive reputation let down by just okay numbers. So far this season, the 49ers’ defense ranks 15th in EPA per play, 16th in points per game, 12th in yards per play, and 10th in yards per game. Not terrible by any means, but closer to average than elite. 

Meanwhile, Baker Mayfield and the Tampa Bay offense have been absolutely cooking. They rank fifth in both yards and points per game, as well as sixth in yards per play. Even without his top two weapons, Mike Evans and Chris Godwin, Baker just threw for 200 yards and two touchdowns and took the Chiefs to overtime. He has the highest success rate of any quarterback and ranks first in the NFL in good old-fashioned passing touchdowns.

If you’re looking for a reason to still play the 49ers, Mayfield does rank badly in pressure-to-sack rate and just okay in turnover-worthy throw rate. There is a world in which San Francisco’s defense ranks up enough big plays to overcome a high points-allowed total. Again, they’re not a must-bench, but I would certainly feel more comfortable starting the widely available Giants than my own 49ers this weekend. 

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