The State of Fantasy Football Tight Ends: Where does Saints' Taysom Hill Fit?
Taysom Hill has been a top-six tight end in PPR each of the last four weeks (top-12 in standard). He’s TE9 in PPR and TE4 in standard for the season. This isn’t a guy we should be questioning: Hill is a legit weekly fantasy starter.
I set out on this journey with the idea of a “Taysom Hill Line;” essentially, who are the guys firmly above Hill in the tight end pecking order. He’s way higher at his position than I expected, though, so that changes the equation.
- Definitely above Hill: Travis Kelce, Mark Andrews, T.J. Hockenson
- Maybe above Hill: Evan Engram (PPR ONLY), Sam LaPorta, Dalton Kincaid, Cole Kmet, Dallas Goedert, George Kittle, Dalton Schultz, Jake Ferguson, Darren Waller
That looks right; I keep changing my mind on a few. I don’t think anyone would argue with the top three, and I nearly put LaPorta there. I’m going to say LaPorta is firmly above Hill; maybe Waller too, though that one is much closer. Otherwise? That’s a lot of guys with questions and/or dependent on touchdowns.
This will operate as something of a “State of the Tight End Position,” though that’s not what it’s meant to be. Many guys who could be started in the right matchup won’t be included (like Trey McBride). This is more to find where Hill settles in and how the tight end tiers stack up right now.
PPR Darling - Evan Engram, JAC
I’ll do this one quick: Engram is a weekly starter in PPR leagues, ranking seventh among tight ends in total and average fantasy points. In standard? He drops to 18th overall and 16th per game. Engram hasn’t been startable many weeks because he hasn’t scored a touchdown all season. Roll with him in PPR, and he will get touches, but pick and choose when to deploy him in Standard leagues.
Hit-or-Miss
George Kittle, SF; Dalton Schultz, HOU; Cole Kmet, CHI; Jake Ferguson, DAL
There are more guys that could be included here, but this makes up the ranks of who I’d say could be argued as “better” than Hill as a fantasy option (and that is what we are talking about: fantasy production. This has nothing to do with real-life football).
The Atlanta duo of Kyle Pitts and Jonnu Smith could be argued; Pitts was a top-five pick but has been really inconsistent, getting outplayed by his less-hyped counterpart Smith most weeks. Smith has had too many good performances to ignore, but I don’t trust the Atlanta passing game enough to push either of these two above Hill.
Kittle has star power in his name, but he’s been a Jekyll-and-Hyde player in 2023: four performances in the top 10, and four outside the top 25 in both formats, with nothing in between. And the good and bad performances have been sprinkled together, not giving much advanced knowledge of what to expect.
Ferguson has a similar story: five PPR finishes in the top 11 (three of them as TE11) and the other three outside the top 20, all mixed together. Kmet has five games in the PPR top 10 and four others outside the top 20. These players are touchdown- and/or matchup-dependent, and I don’t trust them to produce consistently.
Schultz may be a different story. He started the season with three weeks outside the top 25 before going on a run of four games out of five inside the top six (the other game was ugly). Schultz has the same hit-or-miss rate as the others listed here, but he may be forming a connection with C.J. Stroud. If that’s the case, he will be a weekly starter as the rookie continues to shine.
Consistently Mediocre – Dallas Goedert, PHI
I’ve been hard on Goedert this year because of expectations. He was supposed to be a weekly starter, but he has only two weeks in the top 12 and has otherwise been a non-factor in fantasy most weeks. There’s always a chance of a touchdown because the Eagles are so good, but I haven’t been trusting Goedert all season.
Goedert suffered a fractured arm in Week 9 and will miss several games, possibly going to the IR. When he comes back, be cautious when considering him for your lineup.
Blossoming Flower? – Dalton Kincaid, BUF
I see Kincaid as a higher-upside version of Schultz. Kincaid wasn’t in the top 20 in standard (top 15 PPR) any week through Week 6, which he missed with injury. From Weeks 7-9, though, Kincaid has come alive with 23 catches for 221 yards and his only touchdown.
Buffalo needed more reliable targets, and the first-round rookie looks ready to fill that role. Playing on a high-powered Bills offense with playmaker Josh Allen sets Kincaid up well to keep producing numbers.
Dawson Knox had one catch for 10 yards in Week 7 before missing the last two games, and it’s likely he is now fully entrenched as the backup to Kincaid when he finally does return. I trust Kincaid more than Hill on a weekly basis right now, though that could change daily.
Taysom Hill
So, what about Hill? He is different from all other tight ends in a way Michael Vick was from quarterbacks at one point: Hill gets fantasy points in a way no other player at his position can.
Other quarterbacks ran the ball, but nobody was close to Vick during his playing days. Other tight ends get carries on jet sweeps or end-arounds, but no one runs the ball anywhere close to as much or as effectively as Hill.
Hill has run the ball 49 times for 255 yards and three touchdowns this season; I’m not even going to tell you what any other TE has done on the ground because it may as well not exist (OK, fine: Harrison Bryant from Cleveland has three carries for six yards, second in both categories). That’s 43.5 fantasy points no other player at the position has a chance of getting. He’s not even coughing the ball up with any fumbles!
Jonnu Smith threw one incomplete pass, but no other tight end has attempted to throw the ball other than Hill, who has gone five of six for 72 yards and a touchdown. Again, that’s about seven points no other tight end can expect, giving Hill a 50-point advantage from his multitude of roles.
Hill’s 20 catches and 142 yards both rank outside the top 25 tight ends, and his one touchdown is tied for 20th at the position. Add it all up, though, and we’re looking at a must-start tight end in all formats. Hill doesn’t run as many routes as most tight ends and won’t catch as many passes, so he’s docked a little in PPR, but Hill is worth starting essentially every week.
Tight End Tiers
I’ll wrap this up by giving my take on where the position sits halfway through the season. The first four tiers are ranked, but Tiers 5 and 6 are listed in alphabetical order:
Top of the Class: Tier 1
Travis Kelce
T. J. Hockenson
Mark Andrews
A Step Away: Tier 2
Sam LaPorta
*Waller and Goedert would fit somewhere between Tiers 3 and 5, but since they are both on IR/going to miss multiple games, I’ll just leave them here.
Weekly Starters: Tier 3
Dalton Kincaid
Dalton Schultz
Taysom Hill
Evan Engram (PPR only)
High-Level Matchup/TD-Dependent: Tier 4
George Kittle
Cole Kmet
Jake Ferguson
The Muddled Middle: Tier 5 (Alphabetical)
Evan Engram (Standard)
Trey McBride
Kyle Pitts
Jonnu Smith
Others of Note: Tier 6 (Alphabetical, probably missing some worthy names)
