Fantasy Football Week 1 Quarterback Start/Sit: Lamar Jackson, Baker Mayfield, Brock Purdy and More

Three quarterbacks worth starting and three you might want to put on your bench in Week 1.

You know that feeling you used to get as a kid when you’d get really excited about something? When you thought anything was possible, and a lot of first experiences were created. Then we got old, and the excitement for life was sucked out of us; living adult life, right?

Well, Week 1 of the NFL season is probably the closest I get to that feeling of true excitement every year. (Bobby Bonilla Day has to settle for second this time.) With the start of football, though, comes the stress of fantasy football and building the perfect lineup.

Hours upon hours will be spent when you’re either on the toilet or supposed to be working (or both) looking for the best matchups, the deepest sleepers and every little advantage.

Every journey starts with a single step, they say, so let’s jump into the first week of the season and begin identifying starters and bench-worthy players for the opening slate of NFL football. Here, we’ll look at three quarterbacks to start and three to consider benching in Week 1.

The listed stats and rankings are from 2023. Fantasy points allowed by defenses are from Pro Football Reference with guidance from our own FantasySP rankings, and the passing yards per game and per attempt are from Team Rankings.

Looking for start/sit help? Be sure to check out the FantasySP Who Should I Start tool.

Start

Jacoby Brissett, New England Patriots @ Cincinnati Bengals

• CIN Passing Yards/Game Allowed: 248.4 (28th)
• CIN Passing Yards/Attempt Allowed: 7.6 (32nd)
• CIN QB Fantasy Points/Game Allowed: 17.1 (21st)

Brissett beat out Drake Maye for the starting quarterback job despite the rookie outplaying the veteran, according to head coach Jerod Mayo. Brissett is a low-risk, low-reward QB, having thrown more than twice as many touchdowns as interceptions in his career but also just 6.6 yards per attempt; the only starters with a lower number last year were guys like Sam Howell, Kenny Pickett, Deshaun Watson and Mac Jones.

That doesn’t portend big things, but the matchup here puts Brissett squarely on the streaming radar. Because Cincinnati was counting on multiple young Day 1 and Day 2 picks to fill out the secondary last season, there were more than a few growing pains. They added safeties Geno Stone (Baltimore) and Vonn Bell (reacquired after a year with Carolina) in the offseason, but the Bengals are still counting on development from those young players to succeed.

Brissett isn’t someone to jump on in Week 1 unless you’re in a super deep league or starting two quarterbacks. He’s unlikely to be a top-15 guy this week or many others, but Brissett has the right matchup for a decent start to the season.

Fantasy owners will be looking for a starter at Brissett’s level deep in Week 14 when guys are hurt and on bye, not Week 1 when everyone is mostly in the lineup. Again, don’t drop or bench your starter because Brissett is available. If you are in a bind in a deep league, though, the New England passer is set up for maybe one of his best weeks.

Jayden Daniels, Washington Commanders @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers

• TB Passing Yards/Game Allowed: 248.9 (29th)
• TB Passing Yards/Attempt Allowed: 6.9 (25th)
• TB QB Fantasy Points/Game Allowed: 18 (24th)

Let’s get the defense out of the way: The story of sit/start is generally as simple as “target/avoid bad/good defenses.” Tampa was well below average as a pass defense while ranking in the top 10 against the run last year. Their defense is much the same in 2024, so it’s reasonable to expect similar outcomes.

Now, Daniels: I’ve been touting him as a great fantasy pick all preseason, so why stop now? Daniels won the Heisman Trophy after a season in which he threw for over 3,800 yards with 40 touchdowns and just four interceptions. He added more than 1,100 yards and 10 touchdowns on the ground, showing a dynamic skill set and working himself all the way up to the second overall pick.

Washington doesn’t have a ton of talent on the roster (we’ll get to the defense in a second). Receiver Terry McLaurin is a true WR1, and the combination of Brian Robinson Jr. and Austin Ekler can do a little of everything in the backfield. A lot is otherwise going to depend on Daniels making plays.

With his athletic ability, the Commanders will surely design running plays for Daniels while also getting him out on the move and able to make plays both with his arm and legs. Even if the win/loss results don’t turn around right away, Daniels is likely to put up a lot of stats and fantasy points.

With a great matchup, it’s time to jump on the Daniels bandwagon before it officially takes off.

Baker Mayfield, Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. Washington Commanders

• WSH Passing Yards/Game Allowed: 262.2 (32nd)
• WSH Passing Yards/Attempt Allowed: 7.5 (31st)
• WSH QB Fantasy Points/Game Allowed: 20.7 (32nd)

Mayfield ended 2023 on a heater, topping 300 yards in four of his last six games including playoffs. In those two playoff games, Mayfield combined for 686 yards, six touchdowns and two interceptions. That performance helped earn the former top overall pick a $100 million contract.

After finishing as QB10 last year, Mayfield is clearly on the fantasy radar. His offense has most of the same pieces back that helped him find success and probably a better offensive line. The entire right side of the line were second-round picks over the past two years and expected to improve. This year’s first rounder was center Graham Barton, a player projected with Pro Bowl upside.

Mike Evans is still a stud; Chris Godwin is the possession guy. This offense has the talent to succeed in the right situations, and the matchup is the most important determining factor in Mayfield’s fantasy value.

Washington rivaled Cincinnati as maybe the worst pass defense of 2023. When Sam Howell was getting attention for his big throwing numbers, it wasn’t because of his dominant performance: Washington was regularly losing and throwing to catch up. The volume that led to Howell finishing in the top 15 in passing yards and touchdowns also meant that he led the league in interceptions thrown and sacks taken.

We’re getting a little off topic, but the point is that the Commanders were bad overall; things added up because the defense allowed as many points and yards as any team in the league.

Mayfield sits firmly in the streamer category, and this is likely to be one of his best matchups of the season.

Sit

Lamar Jackson, Baltimore Ravens @ Kansas City Chiefs

• KC Passing Yards/Game Allowed: 176.5 (4th)
• KC Passing Yards/Attempt Allowed: 5.4 (3rd)
• KC QB Fantasy Points/Game Allowed: 14.5 (8th)

You’re starting Jackson if you drafted him. He’s one of the top quarterbacks in fantasy football and more capable of going off for a big day than maybe anyone else. Unless you have a phenomenal backup, I can’t actually suggest that you sit Jackson.

This is more about what he might do, though, which is struggle against one of the best defenses in football. Jackson did fine in last year’s AFC Championship Game, going 20-37 for 272 yards with one touchdown and one interception. He also ran for 54 yards, a vintage Jackson day.

That’s worth about 18 fantasy points; Jackson does that regularly. There is downside given offseason changes in Baltimore, though. The offensive line is replacing three starters from last season, and at least two of those might be with rookies (or guys who are essentially rookies).

Baltimore drafted right tackle Roger Rosengarten at the end of the second round; he might be tasked with replacing Morgan Moses, who was traded to the Jets. John Sampson also went to the Jets in free agency, joined out the door by fellow starting guard Kevin Zeitler, who now resides in Detroit.

One guard spot is likely to go to 2023 seventh-round pick Andrew Vorhees. Vorhees was seen as a possible rookie starter before the draft, but he tore his ACL during the combine and almost fell out of the draft. It wouldn’t be surprising if he becomes a good NFL player, but coming off a major injury straight into his first action isn’t an easy task.

The other guard spot and/or right tackle will be filled by some combination of Daniel Faalele, Ben Cleveland and Patrick Mekari. There might be a good player in there, but things are much less certain on the offensive line than they were in 2023.

Against a great defense (last year at least) and with a reworked offensive line, Jackson might be on the run more than he’s controlling the offense.

Dak Prescott, Dallas Cowboys @ Cleveland Browns

• CLE Passing Yards/Game Allowed: 164.7 (1st)
• CLE Passing Yards/Attempt Allowed: 5.2 (2nd)
• CLE QB Fantasy Points/Game Allowed: 13.4 (4th)

Prescott’s contract situation has been a topic of conversation for a few years now, and he recently expressed his unimpressed thoughts on the situation. I don’t think his play will be severely affected by the contract, but it would be better for morale if he was signed long-term, right?

More seriously than any off-field issue, Prescott may struggle because of the team he is opposing. Cleveland might have been the best defense in football last year: The stats listed above speak for themselves. They were also sixth in sacks and tied for third in interceptions. Everything checked out.

Myles Garrett is as good as any defensive player in football, and there’s serious talent at every level of the defense; there’s probably not a better group of starting defenders on paper. I could go on.

Prescott was QB3 last season and QB7 in 2021 (he missed five games in 2022). There’s a history of high-level play that puts Prescott likely among the top 10 fantasy quarterbacks again this year. The presence of 2023 WR1 CeeDee Lamb only helps.

Struggling in Week 1 before improving in future weeks is a likely outcome for both Prescott and the Dallas offense.

Brock Purdy, San Francisco 49ers vs. New York Jets

• NYJ Passing Yards/Game Allowed: 168.3 (2nd)
• NYJ Passing Yards/Attempt Allowed: 5.5 (4th)
• NYJ QB Fantasy Points/Game Allowed: 12.2 (1st)

Purdy was drafted as a borderline fantasy starter. He was QB6 last season, and in 2022 from Weeks 13-18 (when he started after Jimmy Garoppolo’s injury), Purdy was QB9.

Not much is different for the 49ers this year: Brandon Aiyuk sat out most of the preseason while waiting for a new contract, but he’s back and will be in the lineup in Week 1, and the offensive machine in San Francisco should keep rolling. They start off against one of 2023’s best pass defenses, though.

The Jets were brutal for opposing quarterbacks. They held three teams under 100 passing yards, and only once did a team throw for more than 300 (309 from Joe Flacco in Week 17). New York’s 19 passing touchdowns allowed were tied for fifth-least, and their 17 interceptions were tied for eighth-most.

The New York defense projects to be a high-level unit again with the secondary led by superstar cornerback Sauce Gardner. He won the Defensive Rookie of the Year after being the fourth overall pick in 2022 and has played like a shutdown corner each of the last two years.

The defensive line is deep with talent even without Haason Reddick reporting for duty, and there are stars like Quinnen Williams and C.J. Mosley holding down the first two levels. A lot about New York’s season depends on Aaron Rodgers and the offense, but the defense should hold up their end of the bargain again.

Purdy’s only two actually bad games last year were against Cleveland and Baltimore; those are also two of the only tough defenses he played all season. The level of defense matters, even for a seemingly unstoppable offense, and Purdy is likely to start the year a little slower.

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