Fantasy Football Impact Of Diontae Johnson Trade To Ravens: Zay Flowers, Mark Andrews, Lamar Jackson, Xavier Legette, Jalen Coker

Ted breaks down the fantasy football implications of Diontae Johnson being traded to the Baltimore Ravens from the Carolina Panthers.

This is the NFL season that keeps on giving, as we have yet another wide receiver trade with real fantasy football implications. Diontae Johnson is the latest player to be on the move, as he jumps from the sinking ship known as the Carolina Panthers to join the Baltimore Ravens. Without further ado, let’s break down all the fantasy football impacts of this trade!

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Fantasy Football Impact Of Diontae Johnson Trade

Loser: Diontae Johnson 

It paints me to say this as a long-time believer in Diontae and his talent. But I think this move will actually be a downgrade for his fantasy value, as long as we assume Andy Dalton starts the majority of the Panthers’ games for the rest of the season. In the five games started by Dalton, Johnson averaged 12.7 Half-PPR points per game. He saw elite usage in the form of a 26% target share, a 44% air yards share, and a 37% first-read target share. 

Diontae is simply not going to see that level of usage on a crowded Ravens offense. He will almost certainly be more efficient when catching passes from Lamar Jackson (he consistently produced well below his expected fantasy points in Carolina). Unfortunately, I think that improved efficiency will not make up for increased volume.

After all, Zay Flowers, the Ravens’ current WR1, is averaging just 10.5 Half-PPR points per game. And, as much as I hate to say this, there’s no guarantee that Johnson steps right in as the Ravens’ top receiver. After all, we’ve seen bigger-name receivers who went for MUCH more draft capital fail to dominate on new teams already this season — Johnson going for just a late-round pick swap may be a sign of how the Ravens plan to use him. I hope I’m wrong, but I expect Johnson to be more of a flex play than anything else on his new team.

Loser: Zay Flowers

Even if I’m not convinced that Johnson will overtake Flowers as the Ravens’ WR1, this move is still undeniably a bad sign for Flowers’ fantasy value. Johnson certainly has a chance to beat him out, and even if he doesn’t, the veteran will cut into Flowers’ target share. Anyone not downgrading Flowers following this announcement is overthinking things. He should still be a weekly fantasy option, but his floor and ceiling will both be reduced once Johnson is fully incorporated.

Losers: Rashod Bateman, Isaiah Likely, Mark Andrews

However, Flowers is less at risk from Johnson’s arrival than the rest of the Ravens’ weapons. Bateman, in particular, is a huge loser — his fantasy value is essentially dead. The WR3 on a run-heavy team that heavily utilizes TEs and RBs in the passing game is not going to be a reliable contributor.

However, Likely and Andrews also both take real hits with Johnson’s arrival. Both tight ends were already hanging on the border of fantasy irrelevance, with route participation rates hovering around 50%. The arrival of a target-earner like Johnson makes it even more challenging for them to earn consistent volume. 

Of the two, Andrews is the most likely to survive more competition. He posted a 67% route participation rate in Week 8, his highest since Week 2 and higher than Likely has ever reached this season. If that number continues to rise, he could be back as a weekly TE1. Likely, meanwhile, is droppable in most formats (and has been for a while).

Winner: Lamar Jackson

Never fear, not everyone is a loser in this deal. Adding a talented receiver is obviously a boost to Lamar Jackson’s fantasy value. Now, this doesn’t really change much, as he was already the clear QB1 overall. But it’s still a win for anyone with Lamar on their roster. 

Winner: Jalen Coker

Turning to the Carolina side of things, I think Coker, a UDFA rookie out of Holy Cross, is the biggest winner from this news. Last week, with Diontae out with an “injury,” Coker led the Panthers with 78 receiving yards and a touchdown on four catches. 

Now, he didn’t lead Carolina in routes (that honor went to veteran journeyman David Moore) or targets (he lost out by one to fellow rookie Xavier Legette). But a UDFA rookie being this involved in his team’s offense is something to take note of. For what it’s worth, Coker posted the sixth-highest PFF Grade of any receiver in the 2024 draft class in his final season in college (just ahead of Marvin Harrison Jr. and Rome Odunze). 

There’s a real chance he amounts to nothing, especially considering the Panthers’ overall offensive ineptitude. But Coker is someone worth adding on waivers this week to see how things shake out.

Winner: Xavier Legette

Legette, who, as a first-round pick, has a much more impressive pedigree than Coker, may have been a more obvious pick to be my first winner from the Panthers. However, there are a few reasons that this trade may not have a huge impact on Legette’s fantasy outlook.

For one, Legette was already heavily involved in the Panthers’ offense: He led the team with an elite 91% route participation rate in Week 7 with Diontae active. More importantly, Legette seems to be trending in the wrong direction. Even with Johnson off in Week 8, he ran behind both Coker and Moore, posting just a 55% route participation rate. That is exactly what we don’t want to see right as opportunity opens up in this offense.

With that said, Legette is still undeniably a winner. I can’t imagine the Panthers will really continue to not play their 23-year-old first-rounder over David Moore (or a UDFA from the same draft). He is also a must-add if he is available on waivers in your league.

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