Week 11 Monday Night Start Decisions and Rankings: Start Dallas' Jake Ferguson or Houston's Dalton Schultz? What About Tank Dell and the Injured CeeDee Lamb?
Breaking down the Monday night matchup between the Texans and Cowboys and ranking fantasy players from the contest.
Nov 10, 2024; Houston, Texas, USA; Houston Texans wide receiver Tank Dell (3) runs with the ball on a play during the second quarter against the Detroit Lions at NRG Stadium. Credit: Troy Taormina-Imagn Images
Week 11 of the NFL regular season wraps up with a battle for Texas between the Houston Texans and Dallas Cowboys.
Let’s take a look at the top fantasy players from the game. We’ll also rank all the offensive players before we break.
Stroud has completed 62.9% of his passes for 2,371 yards, 12 touchdowns and six interceptions. He’s also got 148 rushing yards, but no scores.
Stroud has struggled as a fantasy performer the past four games, with no games over 12 points, and just 39 total.
Rush has 212 passing yards, a touchdown pass, interception and 56.5 completion percentage for the season. He’s rushed for seven yards. In his first start in week 10, Rush had 45 passing yards, two rushing yards, no scores and two fumbles for a negative fantasy score.
It’s a very favorable matchup for Stroud, as Dallas allows opposing fantasy quarterbacks to score 21 points a week. Houston gives up 16 points, which is pretty average. Stroud is projected for 16 fantasy points, while Rush is at 11.
Stroud is the easy top choice in this contest, and it’s a perfect week for him to get back on track. He should have more of his playmakers around him (we’ll get to that soon), and in the favorable matchup, I’d love to start Stroud. Rush is only a starting option in deep leagues and two-QB setups, and I’d do whatever I could to avoid him after how he looked last week.
Mixon has between 24-29 touches across the past four games. For the season, Mixon has 655 rushing yards and seven touchdowns on 151 attempts, while adding 159 yards and a score on 16 receptions and 24 targets.
Mixon has scored at least 17 fantasy points in each of his five games since returning from a three-week absence. He’s scored at least one touchdown in each of those games.
Ogunbowale has a single touch in each of the past four games. He played just 15 snaps a week ago.
Pierce has battled injuries all season. He has 99 total yards and a score across 15 touches this season.
Dowdle has 22 touches over the past two weeks combined. For the season, he has 374 rushing yards, but no scores, on 83 attempts. Dowdle has 166 receiving yards and three touchdowns on 24 catches and 29 targets.
Dowdle has been an inconsistent fantasy performer this season, with the past two weeks being a perfect example. He scored 22 fantasy points in week 9, but just nine in week 10.
Elliott had six touches in his first game back from a one-game absence (for a disciplinary matter). He’s got 211 total yards and two scores on 61 touches this season.
Cook has nine touches over the past two weeks, but just two a week ago. He’s got 30 total yards so far.
It’s another favorable matchup for the Texans, as Dallas gives up 26 fantasy points to opposing backs. Houston’s defense is strong in slowing backs, giving up just 18 points a week. Mixon is projected for 18 PPR fantasy points, while Dowdle is at 14. Elliott is the only other guy ranked inside the top 51, but at just three points.
Mixon is the clear No. 1 choice in my eyes, and is pretty much a must-start fantasy player at this point. Dowdle is a decent starting option, but not in a tougher matchup - I’d try to only start him in a deeper league.
I’d avoid the other backs in any other leagues, if possible. I’d rank them as follows: Elliott, Pierce, Cook, Ogunbowale.
Collins, who hasn’t played since week 5, has 567 yards and three scores on 32 receptions and 45 targets this season. He scored at least 13 fantasy points in the first five weeks.
Dell has 394 yards and two touchdowns across 35 receptions and 56 targets this season. He’s gotten nine targets in two straight weeks, but will now be the clear No. 2 guy behind Collins.
Hutchinson has 70 yards on seven grabs and 17 targets. He’s gotten seven of those targets over the past two weeks. Woods has 91 yards on eight catches and 13 targets, with six targets over the past two weeks.
Metchie had six targets and a touchdown last week. He has 110 yards and the score on nine receptions and 13 targets for the season.
Lamb has 681 yards and four touchdowns across 59 receptions and 94 targets this season. He had 10 targets in the team’s first full game without Prescott.
Tolbert had five targets last week. He has 367 yards and three scores on 33 grabs and 48 targets.
Turpin has 181 yards and a score on 17 catches and 28 targets. He had no targets last week.
Brooks got four targets in week 10. He has 107 yards and no scores on eight receptions and 24 targets.
Flournoy has 25 yards on two grabs and three targets. He wasn’t targeted last week. Cropper has only played 12 snaps, getting no targets in that time on the field.
The matchup for the Dallas receivers is slightly more favorable. Houston allows 35 fantasy points to opposing wideouts per week, while Dallas surrenders 33.
In the week 11 projections, Collins is projected for 17 PPR fantasy points, while Lamb is at 15. Dell sits at 12 points, while Tolbert is the last one to appear in the top 63 at seven points.
Collins is my top fantasy wideout for this game, even though he’s coming off the injury. Lamb checks in second for me, but you’ll need to watch his status as the game approaches - I’d start him in all leagues, but definitely not feel great considering his QB and injury issues.
Dell is another player I’d want to start tonight. With Collins around, that should open things up a bit more for Dell, and I think he’s in for a nice fantasy outing.
Tolbert is the Dallas wideout I’d consider starting if Lamb is limited or out, but even then, I’d only really want to start him in a deeper league.
All the other wideouts from both teams are ones I’d try to avoid. I’d rank them as follows: Metchie, Brooks, Hutchinson, Flournoy, Woods, Turpin, Cropper. I’d only move Brooks up a spot if Lamb were out - every other Dallas wideout would stay where they are.
Nov 3, 2024; Atlanta, Georgia, USA; Dallas Cowboys wide receiver CeeDee Lamb (88) catches a pass in front of Atlanta Falcons safety Jessie Bates III (3) in the second quarter at Mercedes-Benz Stadium. Credit: Brett Davis-Imagn Images
Ferguson has 358 yards, but no scores, on 42 receptions and 57 targets. He had five targets last week.
Schultz has 310 yards and no scores on 29 grabs and 48 targets. He has 16 targets over the past three games, but could see a decrease in usage now with Collins back.
I like Ferguson the best in this game, but wouldn’t be all that confident in playing him. Schultz is another one I wouldn’t be very confident in, and would really only want to play him in deeper leagues. Both TEs are still among the best pass catchers on their teams.
Kickers
Ka'imi Fairbairn kicks for the Texans. He’s 24-of-29 on his field goals this season and has made all 20 of his extra points.
Brandon Aubrey is the Dallas kicker. He’s 22-of-24 on his field goals and has made all 13 of his extra points.
Both kickers are projected for seven fantasy points. I think the Texans win this game, which will give more scoring opportunities to Fairbairn, so I like him best tonight. I’d be fine playing Aubrey, but really think he’s droppable in standard leagues now with Prescott out and the Cowboys’ offense sputtering.
Defenses/Special Teams
Houston’s defense allows just 288 yards and 22.6 points per game. The Texans have 18 takeaways and 11 giveaways.
Dallas surrenders 362.9 yards and 28.8 points. The Cowboys have eight takeaways and 18 giveaways already.
